2008 Hurricane Season Likely to be More Active than Normal
The team over at Colorado State University has released its initial forecast for the 2008 hurricane season, and the prediction is for another above-average season, compared to normal. For 2008, the forecast is for 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes.
This compares to last year’s early forecast of 14 storms, seven hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes made in December, 2006. The actual number of 2007 storms was 14, with six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. Based on normal climatology, we would have 9.6 storms, 5.9 hurricanes, with 2.3 of those being major. Overall, the forecast for tropical activity in 2008 is 125% of normal conditions, based on the 1950-2000 period.
As far as the chance of a hurricane making landfall in the United States, there is a 90% chance of a strike somewhere in the US, with a 68% chance of landfall on the Gulf Coast, and a 70% chance of landfall in Florida and the East Coast.
In the forecast itself (PDF), Drs. Gray and Klotzbach explain that they are using a new methodology for their long range predictions. Essentially what they are doing is looking at a range of climate features, including sea surface temperatures, upper atmosphere pressure differences in the North Atlantic, and sea level pressures in the eastern Pacific, and using them as predictors of what might happen. By observing these values in the fall of previous years, and then comparing the following hurricane seasons, they have determined that these three influences reasonably predict the upcoming season.
The forecast will be updated in April, and again at the start of the hurricane season in June.
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