Topical Storm Hanna ended up not causing as much damage as it could have, making landfall Saturday morning near the North Carolina/South Carolina border with winds bringing it close to but not quite hurricane strength. Over the course of Saturday, it moved rapidly north disrupting, among other things, the NASCAR night race at Richmond, Virginia and the US Tennis Open in New York. The storm has become extratopical, and is now heading east towards the United Kingdom.

Hanna’s rainfall will help ease drought conditions in North and South Carolina. Here are some rainfall totals from the storm:

Cape Fear, NC – 3.02 inches
Lumberton, NC – 5.0 inches
Whiteville, NC – 4.47 inches
Wilmington, NC – 2.33 inches
Darlington, SC – 3.1 inches
Myrtle Beach SC – 4.41 inches
Newark, DE – 3.69 inches
Atlantic City, NJ – 2.89 inches
East Brunswick, NJ – 5 inches
Ridgewood, NJ – 4.72 inches
Allentown, PA – 3.06 inches
Philadelphia, PA – 2.27 inches
Manhattan, NY – 3.54 inches
White Plains, NY – 4.42 inches
East Hartford, CT – 6.19 inches
New Canaan, CT – 6.45 inches
Warwick, RI – 4.07 inches
Boston, MA – 2.2 inches
Needham, MA 6.1 inches
North Grafton, MA – 6.41 inches
Nashua, NH – 6.56 inches
Kennebunkport, ME – 5.8 inches
Portland, ME – 5.52 inches

With Hanna (and Gustav) out of the way, the big concern now is Ike, which appears to be the last of this wave of storms that started back on August 15th with Fay. (Josephine faded away from shear a few days ago). Ike is a category 4 hurricane that pretty much demolished Grand Turk Island last night, and at 5 PM was 75 miles northeast of Guantanamo Bay, headed towards landfall on Cuba. The storm is moving west at 14 MPH with 120 MPH winds extending 60 miles from the storm’s center.

The major factor guiding Ike’s path is an upper level high pressure system over the North Atlantic ocean. Ike is underneath this system and is being prevented from moving north. After it crosses Cuba and emerges into the Gulf, Ike is expected to strengthen, and his path will be determined by what happens with the high. If it weakens, Ike may move towards the Florida panhandle. If it maintains its position, we could be seeing landfall somewhere in Louisiana. And, if it were to intensify westward, landfall might be in Texas. Whatever happens, landfall isn’t going to be until late next week or next weekend.

In the meantime, it looks like the Atlanta area may have its first real rain since Fay departed. We are also being affected by the ridge that’s controlling Ike, but it’s possible that a cold front or two may make it this far south midweek. The HPC is predicting up to an inch of rain by Friday. Then depending on where Ike makes landfall, he is expected to move northeast, and may affect our weather by the weekend, although it’s still too early to tell how much.

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It’s beginning to look like the Georgia coast will be spared any significant effects from Tropical Storm Hanna. The storm’s forecast track has been moving steadily east, with landfall now predicted somewhere around Wilmington, North Carolina, then moving northeast along the coast past Wilmington, Delaware and Wilmington, Massachusetts, and then finally up through Nova Scotia by the end of the weekend.

The real question is how strong Hanna will get before it does make landfall. At this point, it is forecast by the Hurricane Center to be a category 1 hurricane with 80 MPH winds just before landfall. In comparison, Gustav had 115 MPH winds just before making landfall in Louisiana. The Hurricane Center is only calling for a 30% chance of tropical storm winds along the Georgia coast, although high tides and rip currents are definitely likely. Around an inch of rain is predicted along the coast, with far less called for in Georgia’s interior. Atlanta won’t see anything from the storm, and the Bulldogs should enjoy great weather this weekend in Athens.

The east coast could risk a second hit next week with Hurricane Ike, which will be a much more powerful storm than Hanna. By Monday, Ike will be a category 3 hurricane located just a little west of where Hanna is now. Models indicate that an upper level weather pattern may be in place that is similar to what we are going to see in the next day or two, meaning Ike could take a path similar to that of Hanna. But the weather can change, so we’ll have a better sense of what will happen with Ike by the end of the weekend.

The biggest problem in Louisiana, besides plenty of rain, is lack of power. Much of the electrical grid in the Pelican State is down, however the reverse diaspora has begun, and residents are beginning to pick up the pieces. Gustav hasn’t moved very far since arriving in Arkansas, although it will begin to travel north, bringing rain to Wilmington, Ohio and Wilmington, Illinois and should finally be gone by Friday. The HPC is reporting that New Orleans only received 3.1 inches of rain from Gustav–far less than further northwest. Jonesville, Louisiana is still having tornado warnings, and has recorded 17.7 inches of rain through this morning.

Vicksburg, Mississippi got almost 9 inches of rain, as did Hot Springs, Arkansas and Monroe, Louisiana. And, it is continuing to rain, so the final totals will be higher. And, if you want to stay out of the rain this weekend, avoid Wilmington.

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Hurricane Gustav made landfall about 10 AM in Cocodrie, Louisiana, about 70 miles southwest of New Orleans. At this point, it looks like New Orleans will not face a repeat of the disaster brought about by Hurricane Katrina, although I suspect that we’ll know more in the morning. Here’s a satellite picture of Gustav taken about 9:45, just before landfall:

Gustav is expected to linger in the Arkansas/Texas/Oklahoma area for a few days dropping plenty of rain, possibly up to 20 inches in some areas. At some point, it’s going to get picked up by a low pressure system and taken northwest into Ohio. This means that except for the few showers Georgia is seeing today from extended hurricane bands, we aren’t likely to have any effects from Gustav.

Don’t worry though, because there is more where that came from. Hanna was upgraded to a hurricane this morning, about a day faster than what was previously forecast by the Tropical Prediction Center. The latest estimate is that Hanna will not change position much through Tuesday before becoming a category 2 hurricane early Thursday and beginning a northward trek that could lead to landfall in Georgia. The current estimate puts landfall near Savannah sometime on Friday, followed by a rapid move north into the Mid-Atlantic.

There is still some uncertainty over exactly where Hanna will make landfall and the exact strength of the storm when it does, but no matter whether it’s Brunswick, Savannah or Charleston, I wonder if the networks will pay as much attention to Hanna as they are to Gustav. In any case, as I heard Joe Bastardi say on the radio this afternoon, Atlanta and Macon are likely to get only a “glancing blow” from Hanna. Bastardi pointed to Hurricane Floyd back in 1999 as his guess of a comparable storm.

If Gustav and Hanna aren’t going to be drought-busters in Georgia, maybe the third time will be the charm. The Hurricane Center today identified Tropical Depression Eight, which by afternoon became Tropical Storm Ike. Ike has been brewing as a low pressure system off the coast of Africa for the past few days, and will move across the Atlantic fairly rapidly, probably turning into a hurricane by Wednesday. By Saturday, it will be in roughly the same location that Hanna is today.

While it’s too early to tell exactly what will happen to Ike once he approaches the Bahamas. It could follow Hanna north along the east coast, or move into the Gulf coast either through or south of Florida. The European model has Ike moving into the eastern Gulf and then recurving north through Alabama and Georgia sometime after September 10th.

And don’t look now, but there’s another strong tropical wave southeast of the Cape Verde Islands that the hurricane center says could develop into yet another tropical depression or storm in the next day or two. If it does, it will be named Josephine.

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Not wanting to get caught like they did 3 years ago with Katrina, an estimated 90-95% of coastal Louisianans have left for locations north and west to get out of the way of Gustav, including an estimated 200,000 from New Orleans. Overall, things seem to be much better prepared than they were three years ago, although I wonder where Mayor Ray Nagin got this idea (via the New York Times):

The storm, he said, was now 900 miles wide, compared with 400 miles for Katrina. Even the capital of Baton Rouge, 80 miles inland from New Orleans, could experience hurricane force winds of up to 100 m.p.h., he said. But Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center, said he had no idea what the mayor meant by a 900-mile footprint, saying that hurricane force winds do not extend nearly that far.

New Orleans goes quiet before the storm

In any case, at 5 PM, Gustav was a category 3 hurricane, with winds of 115 MPH, located 215 miles southeast of the Mississippi River. Satellite images show banding reaching up into South Georgia. The latest pressure reading was 957 millibars. The storm has not strengthened as much as was expected previously, which is good, with the storm expected to make landfall west of New Orleans sometime early Monday afternoon.

Comparing Gustav with Katrina, shortly before landfall, Katrina had winds of 166 MPH, with a minimum pressure of 902 MB: a much stronger storm. However, the Weather Service has issued a strong warning:

IN THE AREA NEAR LANDFALL OF THE EYE…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE…AND ALL MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. MODERATE TO MAJOR DAMAGE COULD OCCUR TO WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES. MANY GABLED ROOFS MAY FAIL ALONG WITH SOME EXTERIOR WALLS. ALUMINUM AND LIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS…ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION. SOME WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL MAJOR DAMAGE…AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES. NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS LINES AND POWER POLES KNOCKED DOWN. THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL. NUMEROUS TREES…ESPECIALLY SMALL TO MEDIUM TREES…WILL BE DOWNED…SNAPPED OR UPROOTED.

MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION IMPACTED BY THE STORM SURGE MAY BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF BY STORM SURGE FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL MOVE WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY ALONG BAYS AND BAYOUS. A STORM SURGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

The threat of the storm caused the Republican National Committee to hold activities at their St. Paul convention to a minimum on Monday. About all we can do now is wait and hope for the best. If you want to get a sense of what’s going on from the New Orleans perspective, visit the New Orleans Times Picayune website. You can also stream New Orleans’ TV stations here.

The next question is what is going to happen to Gustav after landfall. Some models indicate that the storm will linger in the Louisiana/Texas area and eventually peter out, while others show the remnants of Gustav being picked up by a low pressure system, and dragged east, which could affect North Georgia and Atlanta’s weather by next weekend.

Also, Tropical Storm Hanna has been chugging along slowly in the Atlantic. The latest projected track has Hanna making landfall somewhere near Savannah, Georgia as a Category 1 hurricane on Friday. Some models show landfall further north in North or South Carolina, while others pull the storm southwest towards Florida. Landfall to the north would minimize the storm’s effect on the Atlanta area, while a more southerly track could bring Hanna’s presence known here.

What happens with both Gustav and Hanna will be determined by three upper level features: a strong ridge of high pressure that will move from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic in the next day or so, a closed low pressure system that will develop off the New England coast and the aforementioned low pressure trough in the Northwest. Until we know the exact effects of these systems, North Georgia will actually be in for some good weather, with lower humidity for midweek, courtesy of the ridge.

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The twin threats of Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Hanna almost guarantee that tropical weather will be in the news for the next week to ten days. Gustav is just about to make landfall as a powerful category 4 hurricane over western Cuba, while Hanna is becoming slightly more organized as a tropical storm about 250 miles east of the Bahamas.

Gustav is expected to strengthen into a category 5 hurricane after it passes over Cuba, and all models have it making landfall somewhere on the Louisiana coast sometime Monday afternoon. The intensity is expected to drop to category 4 by the time he makes landfall, and the storm is likely to move northwest through Louisiana and Texas in the two or three days after landfall. After the devastation caused by Katrina three years ago, officials are taking no chances, but if the storm follows the NHC path, while New Orleans will get a lot of rain, there is less risk to the levees if the storm follows its current projected path. Evacuation efforts have begun, and FEMA is assembling materials needed should disaster strike.

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