FXUS25 KWNC 141230
PMDDRO
US DROUGHT MONITOR DISCUSSION
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU 14 JUL 2011
NATIONAL DROUGHT SUMMARY JULY 12, 2011 THE DISCUSSION IN
THE LOOKING AHEAD SECTION IS SIMPLY A DESCRIPTION OF WHAT
THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE /NWS/ NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
IS DEPICTING FOR CURRENT AREAS OF DRYNESS AND DROUGHT. THE
NWS FORECAST PRODUCTS UTILIZED INCLUDE THE HPC 5-DAY QPF
AND 5-DAY MEAN TEMPERATURE PROGS, THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOKS
OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY, AND THE 8-14
DAY OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY,
VALID AS OF LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OF THE USDM RELEASE
WEEK. THE NWS FORECAST WEB PAGE USED FOR THIS SECTION IS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS/ WEEKLY
WEATHER SUMMARY: WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EXACERBATED THE DROUGHT, KEEPING THIS AREA
PRECIPITATION FREE AND UNSEASONABLY HOT /HIGHS EXCEEDING
110 DEG F/. WEAK FRONTS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
GENERATING HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY. SOME SOUTHEASTERN AREAS /SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS/ RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL.
HEAVY, WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE THUNDERSHOWERS INUNDATED MOST
OF FLORIDA WHILE MONSOONAL SHOWERS CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE NATION RECORDED
NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING PARTS OF THE
WEST /NOTABLY CALIFORNIA/ WHICH HAD OBSERVED A COLD AND WET
SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER. THE UPPER MIDWEST, NORTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC: A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES SPARKED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DROPPED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS /MORE
THAN 2 INCHES/ ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA, AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. 3 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN SOAKED PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, WHILE 4 TO 8 INCHES
INUNDATED SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. ACCORDINGLY, A 1-CATEGORY
IMPROVEMENT WAS MADE WHERE THE GREATEST TOTALS OCCURRED, WITH
D0 REMOVED FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA,
D1 TRIMMED TO D0 IN THE DELMARVA PENINSULA, AND THE D2 IN THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DIMINISHED. D2/AH/ WAS KEPT WHERE LONG-TERM
DEFICITS REMAINED /90-DAYS: 5-10 INCHES; 6-MONTHS: 8-12 INCHES;
12-MONTHS: 12-16 INCHES/, EVEN WITH THIS WEEKS BENEFICIAL
RAINS. A 2-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT WAS MADE IN SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA /D1 TO NOTHING/ DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA /SEE SOUTHEAST TEXT/. THE DAM AT LAKE CHESDIN
WHICH SUPPLIES WATER FOR THE SOUTHWEST SUBURBS OF RICHMOND,
VA, REACHED FULL CAPACITY WITH WATER SPILLING OVER THE TOP,
EFFECTIVELY ENDING ALL WATER RESTRICTIONS THERE. IN CONTRAST,
LESSER AMOUNTS /0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES/ WERE RECORDED IN MARYLAND
AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MAINTAINING CONDITIONS THERE. FARTHER
NORTH, SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICIENCIES /2 TO 4 INCHES/
HAVE ACCUMULATED IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THE PAST 30
DAYS AS ONLY 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAIN HAS FALLEN. WITH
AVERAGE 1-, 7-, AND 14-DAY USGS STREAM FLOW LEVELS IN THIS
REGION DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TENTH PERCENTILE, D0 WAS ADDED.
SOUTHEAST: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PELTED
THE SOUTHEAST, WITH SUBSTANTIAL RAINS /MORE THAN 2 INCHES/
FALLING ON PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS, SOUTHERN GEORGIA, MOST OF
FLORIDA, AND ON PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. IN CONTRAST, DRY AND WARM
WEATHER AGGRAVATED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
/NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, WESTERN MISSISSIPPI/,
SLIGHTLY EXPANDING THE D0-D3 THERE. IN NORTH CAROLINA, 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN PUSHED THE WESTERN D0 EDGE EASTWARD, WHILE
THE WESTERN D1 BORDER IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WAS EDGED
EASTWARD. SIMILARLY, THE WESTERN D2 BOUNDARY IN EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WAS PUSHED EASTWARD, WHILE THE D3 WAS REMOVED FROM DARE
COUNTY WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL. ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL
BE NEEDED, HOWEVER, TO FURTHER IMPROVE DROUGHT AS ANY FUTURE
PROLONGED PERIODS OF SUMMER DRYNESS AND WARMTH COULD QUICKLY
DETERIORATE CONDITIONS. IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, HOWEVER,
D3 REMAINED WHERE TOTALS WERE INADEQUATE /LESS THAN AN INCH/. IN
SOUTH CAROLINA, HEAVY RAINS /2 TO 4 INCHES/ IN THE WEST AND
EAST-CENTRAL IMPROVED D0 AND D1 CONDITIONS, BUT ELSEWHERE
THE RAINS WERE TOO SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR IMPROVEMENT. IN
GEORGIA, 1-CATEGORY RELIEF WAS LIMITED TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS WHERE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES TRIMMED AWAY THE SOUTHERN D4
EDGE. IN FLORIDA, WIDESPREAD, HEAVY SUMMER RAINS BROUGHT LARGE
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE STATE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. IN
FLORIDAS BIG BEND, EAST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTH, WIDESPREAD 10
PLUS INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST 30 DAYS /3 TO 6 INCH SURPLUSES/,
AND OVER 8 INCH EXCESSES THE PAST 60 DAYS, HAVE GREATLY EASED
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, INCLUDING RIVER FLOWS. D4/H/ CONDITIONS
IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA WERE LIMITED TO METRO BROWARD COUNTY AS
LONG-TERM INDICATORS, INCLUDING THE VERY LOW LAKE OKEECHOBEE
LEVELS, WELL LEVELS IN PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES, AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION DEFICITS SINCE JANUARY 1, 2011, AND
OCTOBER 1, 2010. FARTHER WEST, SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS WERE
MADE IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI ALONG THE D2 BORDER
WHERE MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL, AND IN NORTH-CENTRAL
ALABAMA WHERE D0 WAS ALLEVIATED. IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ARKANSAS, 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN ERASED D0; HOWEVER, FARTHER
SOUTH, LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND HIGHS TOPPING 100 DEG F EXPANDED
D0 TO D2 INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE
IMPACT TYPE LINE WAS MODIFIED TO H-ONLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DROUGHT BORDER AS RECENT RAINS HAVE EASED OR ERASED SHORT-TERM
DEFICITS FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS: WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DUMPED HEAVY RAINS /2 TO 5 INCHES/ ON THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT COMPLETELY MISSED THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE PLAINS /FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD TO THE
TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER/. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE, EXCESSIVE HEAT
ACCOMPANIED THE DRYNESS AS HIGHS HIT TRIPLE-DIGITS. MAXIMUMS
EVEN TOPPED 110 DEG F IN SOUTHERN KANSAS, CENTRAL OKLAHOMA,
AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, AND WEEKLY TEMPERATURES AVERAGED
7 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL THERE. IN TEXAS, BASED UPON THE
UPDATED SPI BLENDS AT 12 GMT JULY 12, CONDITIONS DETERIORATED A
CATEGORY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, WHILE ADJUSTMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS WERE MADE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS /DUE
TO RAINS FROM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE 2 WEEKS AGO/. ACROSS THE
STATE, HUGE DEFICITS HAVE ACCUMULATED. IN BEAUMONT, TX, 2011
RAINFALL HAS BEEN 8.80 INCHES VERSUS A NORMAL OF 30.93 INCHES
/26 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. THIS TOTAL /8.80 INCHES/ IS CLOSER TO
WHAT MIDLAND, TX, NORMAL RECEIVES. UNFORTUNATELY, MIDLAND IS
IN AN ARID CLIMATE REGIME, AND BEAUMONT IS NOT. FROM OCTOBER
TO JUNE, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECORDED ONE OF THE DRIEST SUCH
PERIODS ON RECORD /E.G. SAN ANTONIO, DEL RIO, AUSTIN/, AND
THIS DRYNESS HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THIS
SUMMER. IN CONTRAST, A DELUGE LATE IN THE WEEK IN NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS /HALL, CHILDRESS, BRISCOE, AND MOTLEY COUNTIES/ BROUGHT
THIS AREA BACK INTO D3. FARTHER NORTH, HOWEVER, NO RAIN AND
PLENTY OF HEAT QUICKLY DETERIORATED CONDITIONS IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, AND THE D2-D4
AREA EXPANDED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD BY A CATEGORY. FROM THE
USDA/NASS, PERCENT OF PASTURE AND RANGE LANDS RATED POOR OR
VERY POOR WERE: TEXAS 86; OKLAHOMA 69; KANSAS 40. SIMILARLY,
SUMMER CROPS HAVE TAKEN A BEATING. 78 AND 58 PERCENT OF COTTON
WAS RATED POOR OR VERY POOR IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, WHILE THE
SORGHUM CROP IN NEW MEXICO, TEXAS, AND OKLAHOMA WAS RATED 50,
51, AND 44 PERCENT POOR OR VERY POOR. 62 PERCENT OF THE TEXAS
CORN WAS CATEGORIZED POOR OR VERY POOR. IN SHARP CONTRAST,
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ALLEVIATED ABNORMAL
DRYNESS IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, AND IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY A
CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF KANSAS /AND INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO, SEE SOUTHWEST TEXT/. THERE WAS A SHARP CUT OFF FROM
THE AMPLE RAINS TO NO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH ALSO
MARKED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WEEKS TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.
THE SOUTHWEST: THE SUMMER MONSOON CONTINUED ACROSS ARIZONA,
SOUTHERN NEVADA, UTAH, AND INTO COLORADO, BUT BYPASSED NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN PARTS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL ON SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA, EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEVADA, SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH, AND ACROSS MOST OF COLORADO
EXCEPT SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. THE MOISTURE ALSO TEMPERED THE
HEAT IN THIS REGION, WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WHERE AN INCH OR MORE FELL NEAR
ANY DROUGHT BORDER, SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT WAS MADE. THIS
INCLUDED PARTS OF THE D1 THROUGH D4 EDGES IN SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA, AND ELIMINATION OF THE D0 IN PARTS OF WESTERN
ARIZONA. INTERESTINGLY, DOUGLAS, AZ, RECEIVED MORE RAIN IN
9 MINUTES /0.30 INCHES ON JULY 6 STARTING AT 4:51PM/ THAN IN
THE PAST 9 MONTHS /ONLY 0.27 INCHES SINCE OCTOBER 1, 2010/.
IN COLORADO, ANOTHER WET WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS, CALLED FOR A 1-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT IN
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FARTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER, RAINFALL
WAS MUCH LESS /0.1 TO 0.5 INCHES/, AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATED
/D3 AND D4/ IN EASTERN CONEJOS, WESTERN COSTILLA, AND WESTERN
RIO GRANDE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, ENOUGH RAIN FELL TO MAINTAIN
CONDITIONS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT IMPROVEMENT. EVEN WITH
THE RAINS, ARIZONA PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS WERE RATED
63 PERCENT POOR OR VERY POOR, WHILE NEW MEXICO STOOD AT A
HORRENDOUS 91 PERCENT AS OF JULY 11 ACCORDING TO USDA/NASS.
PUERTO RICO, HAWAII, AND ALASKA: IN PUERTO RICO, THE NEWLY
ADDED D0 AREA IN THE NORTHWEST WAS QUICKLY ERADICATED AS 3 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL THIS WEEK, EFFECTIVELY RAISING AVERAGE
STREAM FLOW LEVELS TO NEAR-NORMAL FLOWS THE PAST 1-, 7-, 14-,
AND 28-DAYS. REPORTS FROM THE ISLAND INDICATE ALL VEGETATION
IS GREEN AND LUSH AS ABOVE-NORMAL SPRING AND SUMMER RAINS HAVE
FALLEN ON MUCH OF THE ISLAND. IN HAWAII, LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS FELL ON KAUAI AND OAHU, AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE EFFECTS OF SURPLUS SPRING RAINFALL
PRODUCED IMPROVEMENTS OVER LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI, BUT THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO END AS DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD DURING THE SUMMER DRY SEASON. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE THIS WEEK, BUT IF THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES NEXT
WEEK ON PARTS OF THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND, SOME DEGRADATION
MAY OCCUR. IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, LIGHT PRECIPITATION /0.5
INCHES OR LESS/ FELL WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE RECEIVED
0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE GREATEST RAINS FELL ON THE NON-DROUGHT
REGIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN /1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES/, WESTERN /0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES/, AND EASTERN /0.5 TO 1 INCH/ ALASKA, WHILE
TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE AVERAGED CLOSE TO NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY,
CONDITIONS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED; HOWEVER, WITH USGS AVERAGE
STREAM FLOWS PERCENTILES RUNNING LOW IN THE KENAI PENINSULA,
THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY. LOOKING AHEAD: FOR THE
ENSUING 5 DAYS /JULY 14-18/, A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN /MORE THAN 2
INCHES/ IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST, FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA TO
SOUTH CAROLINA, OVER AREAS WITH D2 TO D4 CONDITIONS. MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS SHOULD ALSO FALL FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE IN
FLORIDA, ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH,
WITH LOWER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST, ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE ROCKIES
TO THE APPALACHIANS, AND SEASONABLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK /JULY 19-23/ INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL
MONSOON RAINFALL IN ARIZONA AND UTAH, BUT CONTINUED SUBNORMAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST /EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WESTERN TEXAS,
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/. ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION, AS SHOULD
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. ABNORMAL WARMTH SHOULD ENCOMPASS MOST
OF THE NATION, ESPECIALLY THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST,
AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, WHILE SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST, SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND EASTERN ALASKA.
AUTHOR: DAVID MISKUS, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
DROUGHT INTENSITY CATEGORIES...
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY...
D1 MODERATE DROUGHT...
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT...
D3 EXTREME DROUGHT...
D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
DROUGHT TYPES...
USED ONLY WHEN IMPACTS DIFFER...
A AGRICULTURAL...
H HYDROLOGIC.
$$
