We’re about to get some unusual weather, starting tonight, when a low pressure system in Indiana causes a cold front to pass through the Atlanta area. There’s a chance of thunderstorms, however since it didn’t get as warm today as initially forecast, they are not likely to be severe.

Monday and Tuesday bring the return of Old Man Winter. After a blustery day on Monday, temperatures will drop towards the freezing mark Monday night, with a chance of light snow. Right now, the thinking is that with the wind and precipitation, temperatures won’t drop below freezing, and if they do, it will only be for a short time.

The real risk of a late winter freeze comes Tuesday evening. Tuesday promises to be a colder version of Monday, with continued windy weather and a chance of rain early. By Tuesday evening, the rain, if any will diminish, and clear skies mean the chances for a freeze improve.

Will the freeze be as bad as the Easter Freeze of 2007? In checking various forecasts, I see predictions all over the map, from staying above freezing both nights to lows in the mid-20s Tuesday night. The forecast is complicated by the chance of rain, the winds, and the timing of the front’s movement. Everyone agrees that on Wednesday, we’ll begin to see a warming trend. Reviewing the Easter Freeze two years ago, we had temperatures below 30 degrees two days in a row, with temperatures below freezing for eight hours on the seventh. As you may recall, this caused lots of damage to the azaleas and spring flora. In addition, a warm March–four degrees warmer on average than March, 2009–caused more plants to be in bloom than what we’re seeing now. I’m hoping that the freeze won’t be that bad this year.
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If you are like me, you were probably looking forward to the predicted sunny skies this afternoon, which obviously didn’t happen. The moist air left over from Saturday’s rain remained in place as the slow moving cold front that brought the rain stalled across south Georgia. This kept the clouds in place and kept the temperatures cooler than expected.

If you were hoping for bright April skies this week, it looks like that won’t happen either, and there is a possibility of rain affecting the upcoming Masters Tournament in Augusta this weekend. For the first part of the week, we’ll see another wedge keep temperatures cooler than normal, with a good chance of fog and drizzle in northeast Georgia.

The wedge moves out on Wednesday, leaving us with a pleasant day for the first round of the Masters on Thursday, but setting us up for a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Right now, it looks like the greatest chance of rain is in the western part of the state, but golfers could see rain on Friday and Saturday. The storm system moves out Saturday night, leaving better weather for Sunday.

The week of the 13th promises to be interesting, at least by the early forecasts. There’s a good possibility that cold Canadian air will make one last stand, with a chance of a very late freeze for the first part of the week. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are calling for colder than normal temperatures, and Accuweather is calling for lows in the mid 30s a week from Monday and Tuesday. If you were planning to get your annuals out this week, it might be a good idea to hold off until the forecast becomes clearer as the week wears on.

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The world’s golf community will arrive in Georgia next week for the Masters in Augusta. Taking an early look at the weather forecast for the event, it looks like those that make the cut will need to wear warm clothes as they drive down Magnolia Lane.

No matter which way you look at it, it looks like Georgia (and much of the East) is due for a cold spell from next weekend through the middle of April. The Climate Predication Center’s 6-10 day outlook for the 5th through 9th calls for colder than normal temperatures for the eastern part of the country, particularly the northeast. The period of the 7th through the 13th continues the trend, although with a little less confidence.

Accuweather is predicting low temperatures just above freezing next Saturday and Sunday mornings, which could mean a frost delay for the early morning rounds. Weather.com is more conservative, calling for lows in the low 40s. We will see what the Weather Service has to say on Sunday. Similar low temperatures are being forecast for the Atlanta area.

Had the PGA been following its old schedule, we would have the AT&T Classic in Duluth going on right now. While today’s surprise shower probably wouldn’t have been a big issue, the 1-2 inches of rain we could get on Sunday would have been a big problem. The good news about that amount of rain in the forecast is that it will definitely wash the pollen away, in addition to bringing much-needed rain to north Georgia.

So, if you’re thinking about planting your annuals this weekend, you might want to think twice. The weather of the last week or so may make it feel like summer is here, but we’re only at the first of April, and you don’t want to look like a fool should your new plants freeze on Easter weekend.

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Despite the fact that we’re at the end of the first week of spring, the weather certainly seems like it isn’t cooperating. Today’s high temperature of 51 was a full 16 degrees below normal. The weather service has issued a frost advisory for tonight, and a freeze advisory for Saturday night and Sunday night. And, the 80 degree weather we saw two weekends ago seems like a distant memory.

The persistent cold is being caused by an upper-level low over Ohio that is acting to bring cold, northern air into our area. It hasn’t moved much over the last few days, and isn’t expected to be gone until Monday. Until then, we’ll see weather more like late February than late March.

It’s about time for the last freeze of the winter, which we will likely see this weekend. The average last freeze date in Atlanta is March 30th. The last time we saw a freeze in April was in 2000, when it dropped below 32 degrees on the ninth. It can be even later. In 1986, we saw a freeze as late as April 23rd.

The cooler weather is probably good news for the folks in Augusta, who always like to have the Azaleas blooming during the second week of April. I was worried that the warm weather was going to bring them out too early. So, maybe there’s a slight silver lining to the cool weather cloud.

Speaking of golf, it looks like good weather for the BellSouth Classic at Sugarloaf next week. The cool weather will finally move out early next week, and 70 degree temperatures are expected by the time the golfers tee off on Thursday. There’s a chance of thunder, though, and possible gusty winds on Friday and Saturday, but by the final round on Sunday, better weather will have returned.

The long range forecast calls for good weather for the Masters Tournament as well, with plenty of sun, and highs in the low 70s, at least for Friday and Saturday.

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This year’s PGA tour has suffered from more rain than I remember in recent years. The February California swing got caught up in the torrential rains caused by El Nino, while March’s Florida swing saw delays from rain and thunderstorms there, including this weekend’s Player’s Championship, just south of Jacksonville, where they haven’t yet been able to complete the third round as of Sunday afternoon.

The last week in March brings the tour to Georgia, this week for the BellSouth Classic in Duluth, and next week for the Masters Tournament in Augusta. Will the weather be more cooperative than it’s been?

In the short run, any leftover rain we have on Monday won’t matter, because all the golfers will be in Ponte Vedra completing the Player’s Championship. Tuesday through Thursday will be warmer than normal, but fair, with highs in the mid 70s. The weather risk comes on Thursday night and Friday. A storm system now on the west coast will send showers and thunderstorms into our area, with the exact amount and timing unclear as of now. Some forecasts call for a chance of rain overnight on Thursday, then clearing on Friday, while others, notably the GFS, holding the storm until during the day on Friday, which would cause more problems for the tournament.

Next weekend looks like it will be mostly fair, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s for the end of the Classic. After another chance of rain on Monday, April 4th, the long-range Augusta forecast calls for rain again on the opening day of the Masters, and then sensible weather for the rest of the tournament.

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