Over the weekend, the Climate Prediction Center released its revised December temperature outlook, which looks quite a bit different than the one they released back on November 20th. The old version had warmer than normal conditions predicted for an area centered on Oklahoma and Kansas, while the new one, as you can see below, says it’s going to be warm in the west and cold in the east:

The other possible bit of good news for rain-starved Georgia is that the precipitation outlook has changed as well, with what was a 33% chance of drier than normal weather in the state changing to equal chances of above or below normal rainfall.

The updated temperature outlook brings the Weather Service more in line with what other winter forecasts are saying, and with what the CPC’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for, which is for a significant chance of below normal temperatures for most of the US and above normal precipitation for all but the desert southwest from the 7th through the 15th of December.

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North Georgia has been blessed this year with a gorgeous few days of Indian Summer, traditionally defined as warm weather following a frost. Following a chilly end to October, November has been a delight, with temperatures more than five degrees above normal, which should be around 66. Of course, Indian Summer has its downside: a lack of rainfall. It’s been dry for the past two weeks, although that’s likely to change soon, as you’ll see below.

The dry weather hasn’t had much impact on the drought situation. The latest drought monitor doesn’t show much change from what we’ve seen since Labor Day. The latest drought outlook, released this morning, calls for some improvement in the short term, but paints a grimmer picture as winter settles in. The silver lining might be that the Lake Lanier drainage basin may get more precipitation than metro Atlanta proper.

As indicated by this post’s title, the mild weather we’ve had recently is going to come to an end, beginning tomorrow, when a cold front brings rain, and then cooler weather for the weekend. Following that, we’ve got a series of storms that are likely to bring rain several times over the next ten days or so. Temperatures are likely to seesaw during the period, with warmer weather during the week, and cooler weather on the weekends.

It’s all part of the battle between summer’s warmth and winter’s cold, with winter inevitably winning out as we move into December. The tropics are making a last stand as well. Hurricane Paloma has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and appears to be heading towards Cuba as a category two storm, before recurving back out into the Atlantic, with no threat to the United States. Despite 17 Atlantic storms this year, Florida State University is reporting that overall, tropical activity in the Northern Hemisphere is down over the last two years, primarily due to a lack of storms in the Pacific. This is the lowest level of northern hemisphere storms seen in 30 years.

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It’s been almost two weeks since I’ve posted… partially because of some well-deserved vacation, partially because, at least here in North Georgia, a fairly quiet weather pattern, and partially because of some other interesting events taking up my web time.

So, what did we miss. After a few weeks of quiet on the tropical front, last week brought Hurricane Kyle, which was notable in that in the first time in 17 years or so, a hurricane made landfall in Canada. Right now, Subtropical Storm Laura is on her way to England, apparently, bothering no one, really. And then there was the storm that didn’t get named despite showing some tropical characteristics—including an eye, but brought rain to the Carolinas and up into the Mid-Atlantic states.

During all this turmoil, weatherwise and otherwise, the Atlanta area stayed dry.  I’ve recorded less than 2/3 of an inch of rain this month, and the official rain gauge at Hartsfield airport shows 3/4 of an inch, with no meaningful precipitation since back on the 12th.  That’s about 3 inches less than a normal September, although one only has to go back to 2005 to find less, when we only had a quarter of an inch.  The final total could change, since there are some storms in the area tonight, but it’s highly likely that we’ll go through another month with below-normal rainfall.

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I haven’t said too much recently about Hurricane Ike, mainly because I’ve been busy this week with other projects, and because there has been plenty of coverage in the media. That being said, I think that after the storm passes through Texas, it will probably be recognized as the storm of the year, comparable to Katrina three years ago.

Take a look at the Houston weather forecast. For Saturday:

Saturday…Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 45 to 65 mph with gusts to around 90 mph in the morning Decreasing to 30 to 40 mph with gusts to around 65 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

The real danger from Ike won’t be the amount of rain, nor will it be that the storm will remain over Harris County causing wet weather for days, as Fay did in north Florida. Instead, it’s going to be the storm surge across Galveston Bay and into the shipping canal that serves Houston. Surges of up to 20 feet are predicted, and the Weather Service is warning,

MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED… SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE…WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES…INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES…SIDING…GUTTERS…AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL. PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS…ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF…AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE…INJURY…AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED…MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

The unspoken threat in the above is the possible damage to the energy refining and chemical production facilities along the coast. Some people are reporting gas stations already charging upwards of $4 per gallon. I noticed gas prices have risen by 10-15 cents since yesterday. We’ll know more by tomorrow evening, but this looks like one of the worst storms to hit Texas ever.

Here in North Georgia, we’ve been feeling the effects of the approaching Ike. While there hasn’t been a lot of rain, the tropical dew points have delayed the typical September days of lower humidity and lower temperatures at night. After a warm weekend, you can expect more seasonable weather by the middle of next week after Ike moves out. In the meantime, hope for the best for Houston.

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Topical Storm Hanna ended up not causing as much damage as it could have, making landfall Saturday morning near the North Carolina/South Carolina border with winds bringing it close to but not quite hurricane strength. Over the course of Saturday, it moved rapidly north disrupting, among other things, the NASCAR night race at Richmond, Virginia and the US Tennis Open in New York. The storm has become extratopical, and is now heading east towards the United Kingdom.

Hanna’s rainfall will help ease drought conditions in North and South Carolina. Here are some rainfall totals from the storm:

Cape Fear, NC – 3.02 inches
Lumberton, NC – 5.0 inches
Whiteville, NC – 4.47 inches
Wilmington, NC – 2.33 inches
Darlington, SC – 3.1 inches
Myrtle Beach SC – 4.41 inches
Newark, DE – 3.69 inches
Atlantic City, NJ – 2.89 inches
East Brunswick, NJ – 5 inches
Ridgewood, NJ – 4.72 inches
Allentown, PA – 3.06 inches
Philadelphia, PA – 2.27 inches
Manhattan, NY – 3.54 inches
White Plains, NY – 4.42 inches
East Hartford, CT – 6.19 inches
New Canaan, CT – 6.45 inches
Warwick, RI – 4.07 inches
Boston, MA – 2.2 inches
Needham, MA 6.1 inches
North Grafton, MA – 6.41 inches
Nashua, NH – 6.56 inches
Kennebunkport, ME – 5.8 inches
Portland, ME – 5.52 inches

With Hanna (and Gustav) out of the way, the big concern now is Ike, which appears to be the last of this wave of storms that started back on August 15th with Fay. (Josephine faded away from shear a few days ago). Ike is a category 4 hurricane that pretty much demolished Grand Turk Island last night, and at 5 PM was 75 miles northeast of Guantanamo Bay, headed towards landfall on Cuba. The storm is moving west at 14 MPH with 120 MPH winds extending 60 miles from the storm’s center.

The major factor guiding Ike’s path is an upper level high pressure system over the North Atlantic ocean. Ike is underneath this system and is being prevented from moving north. After it crosses Cuba and emerges into the Gulf, Ike is expected to strengthen, and his path will be determined by what happens with the high. If it weakens, Ike may move towards the Florida panhandle. If it maintains its position, we could be seeing landfall somewhere in Louisiana. And, if it were to intensify westward, landfall might be in Texas. Whatever happens, landfall isn’t going to be until late next week or next weekend.

In the meantime, it looks like the Atlanta area may have its first real rain since Fay departed. We are also being affected by the ridge that’s controlling Ike, but it’s possible that a cold front or two may make it this far south midweek. The HPC is predicting up to an inch of rain by Friday. Then depending on where Ike makes landfall, he is expected to move northeast, and may affect our weather by the weekend, although it’s still too early to tell how much.

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