It looks like there’s a small chance of snow tonight, although the weather service is indicating the best chances of accumulation are going to be in northwest Georgia — so probably not affecting the metro Atlanta area. There may be a few flakes here and there towards morning, but it shouldn’t amount to much. On the other hand, I wouldn’t miind having to eat my words.

They are getting snow in Houston — a bunch of it., at least for them. About an inch of snow fell in Houston today, marking the earliest ever recorded snowfall in that southern Texas city. The previous earliest snowfall was set last year on December 10th. This is also the first time it has snowed in Houston two years in a row.

Whether snow falls overnight or not, Saturday night promises to be the coldest night of the season so far. Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 20s, as high pressure and radiational cooling take over. Temperatures have hovered around the freezing mark several evenings this fall, but this should mark the first hard freeze of what is expected to be a colder than normal winter.

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If you’re like me, you are probably sick of all the rain we’ve had over the past month or so. The good news, in addition to less rain today than predicted, is that the weather is going to change beginning on Friday. The bad news is that we are going to get cold.

A front passes through on Friday, blowing out all the rain and tropical air. Behind the front is some of the Canadian air that has been causing some record cold temperatures in the upper Midwest. And, because of a Nor’Easter that will be bringing snow to Pennsylvania and points north, the cold air will be driven further south than it might otherwise have been. The low temperatures forecast for the weekend were in the mid 40s earlier this week. Tonight’s zone forecast calls for temperatures around 40 Saturday and Sunday nights.

But, if you look at the GFS modeling, it’s calling for temperatures around freezing Monday morning in Atlanta, and in the upper 20s for Athens. Will we get there? The record low in Atlanta is 34 for Saturday, 31 for Sunday and 35 for Monday. The normal first freeze in Atlanta is November 10th, about three weeks away. We may not be breaking any records this weekend, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we did end up below 40 degrees. If your furnace has a pilot light, you might want to check it and/or turn it on.

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If it seems colder than normal for mid-November, you’re right. North Georgia got its first cold shot on Sunday after the wet weather moved out. This afternoon, another cold front passed through, although with the dry air, there wasn’t any precipitation associated with the front. Behind the front, there’s more cold air blowing in, literally. There’s a wind advisory for Tuesday, so even though temperatures in the Atlanta area will only reach the mid 40s, it will feel like the low 30s tomorrow afternoon.

We get the coldest weather of the season so far on Wednesday morning, with lows predicted in the low 20s in metro Atlanta, and freezing temperatures as far south as the Tampa area. The cold weather is unlikely to break a record, however. The record low for November 19th in Atlanta is 18 degrees, set back in 1903. Although forecasters have predicted freezing temperatures on and off for the last few weeks, much of the Atlanta area has yet to get a freeze. Wednesday should put an end to that for everybody, making the first freeze of 2008 about ten days later than normal. The record low for Atlanta in November, by the way is 2 degrees, set on November 25th, 1950. Fortunately, it won’t get that cold.

After this round of cold, things warm up, but only slightly. We should be seeing highs around 60 and lows around 40 for the last two weeks in November, instead look for highs in the upper 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s through the end of the month. What about Thanksgiving weather? The cold, dry air is going to keep most of the US dry for the next week, and following that, there’s a chance of rain moving from west to east.

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This is going to be one of those grab-bag posts. Sometimes I see things in the news that are weather related, but don’t post immediately about them.There have been a few things like that recently, so here goes.

We’ll start with the drought, and more specifically, the effects on the Atlanta water supply. As Lake Lanier remains at near record low levels, Georgia EPD Director Carol Couch has asked the Army Corps of Engineers to reduce discharges from the lake to create a flow of 650 CFS at Peachtree Creek on the Chattahoochee River. This is similar to a reduction made last spring which, Couch argues, didn’t cause any environmental damage, and would save some 11.7 billion gallons of water.

Meanwhile, Senator Obama has apparently decided that Florida is more important than Georgia, telling potential Sunshine State voters he would side with them when it comes to deciding who gets water from the Apalachicola Chattahoochee Flint river basin. This prompted a quick response from Senators Isakson and Chambliss expressing their disappointment with his comments. It’s another reason to think carefully before you decide to vote for the Chosen One.

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I almost hate to talk about it, in fear of creating a jinx, but it looks like the Atlanta area could get some rain starting late next week.  The last time we had any rainfall at all, either here or Atlanta Hartsfield was back on September 11th, when .01 inches was recorded.  That means we are at 23 days and counting without rain. Now, models are indicating a trough will begin to move from west to east, and could bring rain sometime Wednesday or Thursday.  It may not be one of these one hour wonders either.  Accuweather says that the rain will stick around through next weekend, bringing almost two inches by Columbus Day. The CPC extended outlook calls for above normal rainfall in the 6-10 day period and weather.com is less optimistic, with rain only on Wednesday or Thursday.

I did the annual fall aerating and overseeding for my fescue lawn two weeks ago, which means that I get a pass from the watering restrictions, and can turn on my irrigation system on the appropriate odd/evn schedule.  Even with watering, when I’ve dug a few holes to plant some new bulbs and shrubs, I’m amazed at how dry the ground is. The rain, if it comes, will be much appreciated.

Another thing we haven’t seen in a while is freezing temperatures.  While North Georgia typically doesn’t get its first frost until the second week of November, Michigan, Vermont and Maine are seening freezing temperatures over the next few days.  Nationwide, the lowest temperature this morning was 17 in Stonington, Michigan.  There’s a frost advisory tonight starting in Western Michigan and moving east through northen Ohio, much of northern Pennsylvania and southern New York.  And, snow has begun to fall in the Rocky Mountains, including areas of Utah and Colorado, where a few inches are predicted through tomorrow evening.

You can keep up with the approach of winter on our Winter Weather page.  It’s just a matter of time before we begin to feel winter’s effects here in Georgia.

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