We’re about to get some unusual weather, starting tonight, when a low pressure system in Indiana causes a cold front to pass through the Atlanta area. There’s a chance of thunderstorms, however since it didn’t get as warm today as initially forecast, they are not likely to be severe.

Monday and Tuesday bring the return of Old Man Winter. After a blustery day on Monday, temperatures will drop towards the freezing mark Monday night, with a chance of light snow. Right now, the thinking is that with the wind and precipitation, temperatures won’t drop below freezing, and if they do, it will only be for a short time.

The real risk of a late winter freeze comes Tuesday evening. Tuesday promises to be a colder version of Monday, with continued windy weather and a chance of rain early. By Tuesday evening, the rain, if any will diminish, and clear skies mean the chances for a freeze improve.

Will the freeze be as bad as the Easter Freeze of 2007? In checking various forecasts, I see predictions all over the map, from staying above freezing both nights to lows in the mid-20s Tuesday night. The forecast is complicated by the chance of rain, the winds, and the timing of the front’s movement. Everyone agrees that on Wednesday, we’ll begin to see a warming trend. Reviewing the Easter Freeze two years ago, we had temperatures below 30 degrees two days in a row, with temperatures below freezing for eight hours on the seventh. As you may recall, this caused lots of damage to the azaleas and spring flora. In addition, a warm March–four degrees warmer on average than March, 2009–caused more plants to be in bloom than what we’re seeing now. I’m hoping that the freeze won’t be that bad this year.
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The Atlanta area saw its first snowfall in over a year on Sunday as March roared in like the proverbial lion. Precipitation changed from rain to snow around noon, and the snow continued to fall until around dark. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the already wet ground and warm soil temperatures meant that much of the snow didn’t stick, although it was enough to close most Atlanta area schools this morning.

Georgia snow totals from the storm include:
Atlanta: 4.2 inches
Athens: 6.5 inches
Columbus: 6.5 inches
Macon: 1.0 inches
Gwinnett County: 5.0 inches
Cobb County: 1.5 inches
DeKalb County: 1.5 inches
Henry County: 3.0 inches
Madison County: 7.0 inches

The greatest measured snow total was in Madison county, northeast of Athens.

The storm moved north overnight, bringing similar amounts of snow to major cities on the east coast:
Charlotte, NC: 6.0 inches
Arlington, VA: 8.0 inches
Baltimore, MD: 5.1 inches
Philadelphia, PA: 5.3 inches
Atlantic City, NJ: 6.8 inches
New York, NY: 7.0 inches
Bridgeport, CT: 8 inches

The weekend’s rain raised the water level on Lake Lanier from 1056.9 feet to 1057.7 feet, with a further increase likely as the snow melts. Atlanta is still short of normal rainfall by 2.5 inches — almost identical to where we were on the first of March in 2008.

While temperatures will be about 20 degrees below normal today and 15 degrees below normal tomorrow, in typical March fashion, we’re in for a big change after that. A warming trend will bring high temperatures to around 70 degrees by this weekend. So, get out and enjoy the snow today, while it lasts.

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For the last hour or so it’s been snowing in Lawrenceville. Big, heavy white flakes continue to fall, causing some of the shrubs to bend over as if it was ice. With the temperature having dropped to 33 degrees, the snow is beginning to stick on the grass and cold cars, however it’s turning to slush on roads, walks and driveways.

A picture from a little while ago shows the snow in my backyard:

Looking at the radar, it looks like the heaviest precipitation is falling in the metro Atlanta area. The back end of the snow appears to be along the Georgia/Alabama line, so I don’t know how long it will last. Update: The weather service has issued a winter storm warning for much of north central Georgia, including the metro Atlanta area through midnight tonight. They say we could get an additional two inches of snow. If this is true and tonight’s low temperatures drop into the 20s as expected, it could be nasty in the morning.

The real threat, of course, is not here in Georgia, but further north, from DC to New England, as this storm, combined with the one that pulled through yesterday could be one of the worst of the season as it passes through tonight and Monday.

I’ll post more updates later, but feel free to comment on the snow in your area.

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There’s a reasonable chance that this weekend’s spell of wet weather could end up producing a few inches of snow before it’s all over Sunday night. While the Weather Service forecast from this morning hasn’t mentioned it yet, WSB TV has put out a report calling for between two and four inches of the white stuff on Sunday. I heard Kirk Melhuish mention the possibility of snow while driving around at lunch time, and Accuweather is calling for just over an inch in Atlanta on Sunday.

I guess it’s just a question of whether you trust the computer models or not. The HPC is indicating that there is a 40% chance of four inches of snow in much of eastern Georgia (Athens to Augusta), and a 10% chance further west, including Atlanta. If it does happen, it will be unusual. Typically, when temperatures cold enough to support snow come in, the cold front preceding it has moved most of the precipitation out of the area. If the models are right, the precipitation will last long enough to support some snow.

We’ll know more by tomorrow afternoon — still with plenty enough time to run to the store and stock up on bread and milk.

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While the last two weeks have been relatively quiet weather-wise in Atlanta, that certainly hasn’t been the case elsewhere in the country. a massive storm earlier this week brought snow, then ice, then more snow to a wide area from Arkansas to Pennsylvania, with Kentucky perhaps suffering the most. State officials there are calling the power outage caused by the ice storm the worst in the state’s history. Chicago has had six or more inches of snow on the ground for the last 20 days, a top ten record, and as of yesterday is recording its third coldest January on record, with a mean temperature of 15.8 degrees, more than six degrees below normal.

Despite a general impression of a cold January in Atlanta, it’s actually been warmer than normal. At Hartsfield, the mean temperature through today is 44 degrees, 1.3 above normal. It’s been a bit cooler here in Lawrenceville, with a mean of 42.5 degrees, but that’s to be expected. The January mean temperature in 2008 was actually over a degree cooler than this year, although 2007 and 2006 were both above normal.

After this weekend, which could be quite pleasant, we have the threat of the worst storm of the winter season. The eyes of the weather world are focusing on Monday and Tuesday, when a powerful storm will start in the southeast and move north, bringing a chance of snow to North Georgia, and likely a doozy of a storm to the mid-Atlantic states.

Most of the country’s weather this winter has been affected by the northern branch of the jet stream. In essence, the northern branch divides cold Canadian air from the (slighly warmer) air to the south. It can dive south, as we saw mid-month when we got the coldest temperatures of the season. For the first time this winter, the southern branch is also active as well. The southern branch divides warmer, tropical air to the south and the colder air to the north. When these two branches join back up, you have a good possibility of wintry weather.

The forecast models have been changing from run to run on the position of the two jet streams, and where the snow will fall, but there is a definite possibility that Atlanta could see some wintry weather on Monday or Monday night. In the worst-case scenario, we could see something like what happened in March, 1993, when the Atlanta area got over a foot of snow. Or, we could get just rain, and not much rainfall at that. Keep your eyes on the forecast over the weekend to get updates.

The History of the Global Warming Argument

The founder of the Weather Channel, John Coleman, has published a blog entry describing the history of the global warming (or climate change, to use the current PC term) debate. Coleman says there is no basis for the climate change threat, which he argues was blown way out of proportion because a researcher was looking for more government funding.

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