Once again, it’s Groundhog Day, when the marmots emerge from their holes and decide whether spring is near or not. This year, Lilburn’s own Beauregard Lee emerged on a rainy morning and didn’t see his shadow, foretelling an early spring. However, up in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania, Punxsutawney Phil arose and saw his shadow, calling for six more weeks of winter. Other woodchucks in Long Island and Canada also split on their forecasts.

Of course, the idea of an animal being able to predict the weather might be more valid if we looked at the timing of its emergence, rather than forcing a decision on February 2nd. For example, I saw the first robin of the season over the weekend. The daffodils seem to be running late this year, another sign of a late spring. The weather service also is calling for a late spring, at least in the south (see my previous post), and the outlook for the next two weeks calls for colder than normal weather.

By the way, how do they decide if the groundhog has made an accurate prediction? At least in Pennsylvania, they look at the number of days in the six weeks after groundhog day when the temperature rises above 40 degrees. If it’s more than half, spring arrived early. 40 degrees wouldn’t work here in Atlanta, where the normal high temperature on February 2nd is 54 degrees. By the first of March, it will be up to 60.

January wasn’t very warm. The mean temperature at Hartsfield Airport in Atlanta for the month was 38.5 degrees, which was 4.2 degrees below normal. It was a little cooler here in Lawrenceville, with 37.3 degrees. Athens was slightly warmer with an average 39.7 degrees, 2.5 degrees below normal. January rainfall was 5.38 inches in Atlanta, .35 inches above normal. Athens had more precipitation, with 6.2 inches, or 1.51 inches above normal. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded 5.06 inches of rain, however that might be a little short of reality, since my rain gauge doesn’t really handle snow very well.

There’s plenty more rain coming later in the week — up to three inches more. I’m getting tired of it, as I’m sure you are as well.

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Lilburn’s most famous weather forecaster, General Beauregard Lee woke up this morning at the Yellow River Game Ranch and didn’t see his shadow. According to legend, that means that Spring is just around the corner.

Up in Pennsylvania, Punxsutawney Phil emerged from Gobbler’s Knob this morning and after noting that his Pittsburgh Steelers won the Super Bowl, saw his shadow and proclaimed six more weeks of winter. In Columbus, Ohio, Buckeye Chuck also called for six more weeks of winter. The same thing happened up in Shubenacadie, Nova Scotia, where Shubenacadie Sam saw his shadow.

The difference in the two marmots’ forecasts marks the fourth time in the last five years that Beau has called for an early spring, while Phil saw more winter ahead. In 2007, both groundhogs said Spring would have an early arrival. Today’s AJC notes that the Pennsylvania prognosticator is correct about 50% of the time, while his Georgia cousin is less accurate, with only a third of his predictions being correct, based on temperatures being above or below normal.

Taking a look at the three month outlook for February through April, both groundhogs could be correct. Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for the south, however there are equal chances of above or below normal temperatures in the northeast, including Pennsylvania. OF course, one late freeze or snowstorm can make for a long winter.

In the short run, after some cold weather in the early part of this week (and a chance of flurries on Tuesday), it looks like we are in for warmer than normal temperatures through the end of next week. Look for highs in the 60s, which is quite springlike indeed.

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Today is Candlemas Day, the second of February, when the Groundhog is supposed to predict the likelihood of an early Spring. While Pennsylvania’s Punxsutawney Phil is probably the best nationally known prognosticator of the weather, many others of the species Marmota monax are weighing in as well.

In Shubenacadie, Nova Scotia Sam the woodchuck failed to see his shadow in the rain this morning, foretelling an early Spring. Another Canadian groundhog, Ontario’s Wiarton Willie, concurred. In New York, Staten Island Chuck is also calling for an early Spring, although I suspect many New Yorkers would at least like to see some snow before that happens. Ohio’s Buckeye Chuck predicted an early spring in Marion. He’s been making forecasts since 1979. And in Woodstock, Illinois, where the movie Groundhog Day was filmed, Woodstock Willie opined that an early spring was on the way as well.

Punxsutawney Phil might say these five are amateurs. at Gobbler’s Knob, where people began lining up at 3 AM in anticipation of his prediction, Phil saw his shadow just before 7:30 AM, and predicted six more weeks of winter. But here in Georgia, General Beauregard Lee awoke from his sleep at the Yellow River Game Ranch and did not see his shadow, making it six marmots to one in favor of an early spring.

Of course, we won’t know which prediction is correct for another two months. However, the National Weather Service, which is a bit more scientific in its predictions is calling for a good chance of warmer than normal weather for most of the eastern half of the United States in February, so maybe the groundhogs will be right.

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After a day that brought up to six inches of snow in Dahlonega, and icy conditions to parts of the north metro area (but not Gwinnett County), the groundhogs have made their annual predictions for the arrival of spring.

Both Beauregard Lee and Punxatawny Phil woke up this morning, and didn’t see their shadows. According to legend, this means that spring is just around the corner.

You wouldn’t know it from some of the more traditional models of weather forecasting. The overall weather pattern in the United States has a ridge in the west, and a trough in the east. This is allowing brutally cold air to descend from Canada into the middle of the country and then move eastward, while the western part of the country stays warm.

This weather pattern will probably stay in place for the next week to ten days. Even though the coldest part of winter is theoretically over, we’ll be lucky to see 50 degrees the week of the 12th, even though by then the high should be around 55. After that, there’s a possibility that the pattern will shift to more favorable weather, or at least something that gives us the possibility of seeing 60 during the day.

Meanwhile, central Florida got a taste of one of the bad things about spring — strong tornadoes. At last report, at least 19 people died when a tornado ripped through the Orlando area early this morning. The satellite picture below shows central Florida this morning, and highlights Lady Lake, one of the towns severely damaged by the cyclone.

Here in Georgia, we typically don’t get the worst tornadoes until March. The Weather Service has scheduled Severe Weather Awareness Week for the week of February 19th, including a statewide tornado drill on the 21st.

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America’s two groundhog weather forecasters made opposite predictions for the end of winter this morning, with Georgia’s General Beauregard Lee emerging from his den and not seeing his shadow, and Pennsylvania’s Punxatawny Phil seeing his.

According to tradition, that means that as far as Beau is concerned, we’ll have an early spring. Phil predicts six more weeks of winter. The two woodchucks made identical predictions last year.

Here in Georgia (and in Pennsylvania, for that matter), most of January felt like spring. The Weather Service is predicting a turnaround in the pattern, however, to more normal temperatures, if not colder than normal. The computer models that are used to make these predictions have been unreliable and changing at times from day to day, leaving forecasters unsure of the confidence level in the forecasts. Once two fronts make it through Georgia today and Friday night, for the next two weeks you can look for highs only around 50 degrees — not very springlike to me.

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