There’s a reasonable chance that this weekend’s spell of wet weather could end up producing a few inches of snow before it’s all over Sunday night. While the Weather Service forecast from this morning hasn’t mentioned it yet, WSB TV has put out a report calling for between two and four inches of the white stuff on Sunday. I heard Kirk Melhuish mention the possibility of snow while driving around at lunch time, and Accuweather is calling for just over an inch in Atlanta on Sunday.

I guess it’s just a question of whether you trust the computer models or not. The HPC is indicating that there is a 40% chance of four inches of snow in much of eastern Georgia (Athens to Augusta), and a 10% chance further west, including Atlanta. If it does happen, it will be unusual. Typically, when temperatures cold enough to support snow come in, the cold front preceding it has moved most of the precipitation out of the area. If the models are right, the precipitation will last long enough to support some snow.

We’ll know more by tomorrow afternoon — still with plenty enough time to run to the store and stock up on bread and milk.

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With winter just a month away from a meteorological perspective, it’s time to take a look at some of the forecasts that have been issued for a glimpse of what the season will bring.

We’ll start with the always interesting and sometimes reliable Old Farmer’s Almanac’s prediction for the southeast, which includes much of North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia. Overall, they expect cold temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation, with more precipitation in the south. Look for above average snowfall, and the coldest weather in mid to late December, mid-January and mid-February.

On the other hand, Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi says to expect colder than normal weather for much of the east, with December being the coldest month relative to normal, a January thaw, and then cold again in February. The East can also expect more snow than last year.

WSB Radio forecaster Kirk Melhuish released his preliminary winter outlook this week, and it is similar to Accuweather, with ‘bookends’ cold spells at the beginning and end of the season, and less snowfall and slightly less rainfall than average. Kirk will issue his final winter forecast at the beginning of December.

Finally, what does the Weather Service say? They haven’t done a press release on their outlook as they have done in past years, so all you can do is look at their 3 month outlook for December-January. Unlike the other forecasts, the Climate Prediction Center thinks we have a better chance than normal for warmer weather. They also predict a 33% chance of drier weather, especially in mid and south Georgia.

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110 Degree Summer Temperatures in 2080?

You may have read the banner headline at the top of Thursday’s Atlanta Journal-Constitution — NASA Predicts Scorcher for Atlanta. The article focused on the potential for daily high summer temperatures of 110 degrees in Georgia by 2080, 15 to 20 degrees above what we typically see now. The article was based on a press release from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, which in turn was based on a peer reviewed article that appeared in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. I tried to read the original article, which unfortunately is only available to subscribers, but was able to locate the article’s abstract.

The interesting thing to me is that the focus of the research seemed to be the effects of colder sea surface temperatures on precipitation probabilities in the eastern US. While the abstract says nothing about carbon dioxide levels or global warming, it appears that the bottom line is that if CO2 levels continue to increase by 2% per year, and you get a summer with extreme low eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, which would result in fewer storms in the eastern US, then daytime temperatures could range between 100 and 110 in cities like Atlanta.

Kirk Melhuish Weighs In on Global Warming

WSB Radio meteorologist Kirk Melhuish released a position paper this week that reflects his observations on global warming. The four page missive is well worth a read, both for his opinions on the subject, and for his command of English literature. He cautions readers to be wary of the extremists on both sides of the global warming debate, but acknowledges that there does appear to be strong evidence of some human-caused effects in the rise of temperatures.

He questions our current ability to correctly model Earth’s climate such that we can make accurate predictions about what the climate will be like 100 years from now, and thinks that it may take another 20 years before the competing scientific theories are analyzed properly to determine whether what is being predicted now is correct.

AccuWeather Releases 2007 Hurricane Projections

Hurricane expert Joe Bastardi and the weather forecasters at AccuWeather put out a press release this week with their predictions for the 2007 hurricane season. They forecast between 13 and 14 named storms, and 3 intense hurricanes category 3 or higher. While still a season with greater than normal hurricane activity, they are predicting fewer storms than Dr. Gray at Colorado State University, who is calling for 17 named storms, and 5 intense hurricanes.

AccuWeather thinks that the area most likely to be hit by hurricanes this year is the Gulf Coast, with the most danger from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, through Florida, and west to the mouth of the Mississippi.

If the predictions hold true, it will be bad news for an area that got clobbered in 2004 and 2005. However, it could mean an end to the drought that is affecting Georgia, since there is a good likelihood that storms in the eastern Gulf end up bringing rain to Georgia. Dr. Gray will update his forecast one more time, just before the tropical season officially starts on June first.

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A trough in the Eastern part of the United States is going to bring us a real taste of winter weather in the first part of the week leading up to Thanksgiving. There is a reasonable chance of snow flurries overnight Sunday into Monday, but don’t panic — there’s no chance of accumulation. By Tuesday night, temperatures will drop to around 30, or even the upper 20s. You can expect gusty winds throughout the period, so all in all, it’s not going to be a great start to the week.

By Wednesday, the low pressure system will move away from us, allowing warmer temperatures back into North Georgia, with highs possibly brushing 70 degrees by the weekend. The long range prediction is for warmer than normal temperatures through the first of December.

November so far has proven to be colder and wetter than normal. Our rainfall of 3.61 inches measured here is about 170% of normal for the month to date, although if we don’t get more rain it will be about normal for the month. It has been cooler than normal — about two degrees below average so far. So, maybe warm weather for the Thanksgiving weekend will even things out a bit.

Kirk Melhuish of WSB radio has released his winter forecast. It largely follows the pattern of the other major forecasters, with a cooler than normal winter, and normal precipitation. Kirk does think that we’ll have a better chance than normal for an ice storm, though.

The National Weather Service also issued its final update to the winter forecast. While the predicted near normal temperatures and normal to slightly more than normal precipitation is unchanged for the Southeast, the meteorologists have changed their prediction for the Southwest from normal to equal chances of above or below normal temperatures.

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From a meteorological standpoint, winter is over, having ended yesterday. So, how did we do?

Here are the average temperatures, month by month, along with normals:
December: 40.7 46.8 6.1 degrees below normal
January: 48.3 42.7 7.6 degrees above normal
February: 44.3 46.8 2.5 degrees below normal
Winter: 44.4 45.4 1.0 degree below normal

So, we ended up, in the means, about a degree below normal for the winter, although we saw wild swings in the monthly temperatures.

When you take a look back at the early forecasts for winter, it looks like everybody got it right as far as temperatures go, except for the Weather Service, which issued a forecast of equal chances of above or below normal. Kudos go to the Farmer’s Almanac, which predicted the great swings from cold to warm, and then back again.

In the snowfall department, where we really didn’t see anything that caused any major problems at all, Kirk Melhuish got it spot on, with WeatherAmerica and AccuWeather widely missing the mark.

Overall, I would give the best grades to Kirk Melhuish, who was right on both temperature and precipitation.

Speaking of forecasts, I caught Joe Bastardi of Accuweather on Fox News over the weekend, talking about the upcoming hurricane season. While we’re about a month away from the official forecasts, he warned that based on similar patterns in the past, we’re likely to see another active season in 2006, with a probability of hurricanes striking the Atlantic coast, perhaps as far north as the New York area.

Shorter term, we may end up with a more or less normal March. The weather service is calling for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation in Georgia for March. Warm weather is expected in Texas, and colder than normal weather is predicted in California. If the Climate Predication Center is right, it will also be rainy in California, and dry in Texas and Florida.

Texas is already feeling the heat, with highs around 90 today. Lawrenceville reached its high so far for the year, with 74.4 degrees. (The normal is 60 degrees). But, it won’t last: after another above normal temperature day tomorrow, it will be cooling down to normal temperatures, although, it’s likely to stay dry for a while, adding to a rainfall deficit for the year.

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