Wednesday is slated to be the last day of the relatively cooler than normal temperatures we have seen for the first three weeks of April. Temperatures will rise to the upper 70s, and will reach the 80s by the weekend. It’s likely to stay warmer than normal for the next few weeks, as the first real Bermuda High takes control over the southeastern United States.

In the long run, though, May could be the warmest month through the end of the summer, relative to normal. The image at right shows the latest modeling by the CFS, or coupled forecast system. (Click to enlarge the map). It shows temperatures becoming steadily cooler after a slightly warmer than normal May in the Southeast, and much cooler than normal for the eastern half of the country in July, August and September

The trend through the end of the year points to colder than normal weather as well, as can be seen by the second graph, which shows forecast temperature anomalies by three month period through the end of the year, by which time virtually the entire country, except for the San Francisco Bay area and much of New England should be cooler than normal.

Tornado Reports

Numerous confirmed tornadoes stuck north and central Georgia over the last ten days. On Friday, April 10th, twelve confirmed tornadoes and two suspected tornadoes touched down, with the bulk of them stretching from Columbus, through Americus and Cordele. Additional touchdowns were reported in Jasper and Sparta.

Then on April 19th, there were two more tornadoes, one again in the Columbus area, and the other in Cherokee County. Only one injury was reported in the April 10th incident, and two injuries were reported in the April 19th incident.

Sphere: Related Content

Georgia saw its first severe weather of 2009 on Wednesday evening, with reports of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms causing one death and multiple injuries. It appears that most of the damage was recorded south of Atlanta, and along the Georgia-Florida border.

Preliminary storm reports showed an EF0 tornado in Warner Robins, an EF4 tornado in Washington, in Wilkes county, which traveled 16 miles and moved a two ton truck 60 feet, an EF1 tornado in Eatonton causing one injury, additional reports of EF1 tornadoes in Jasper and Newton counties, an EF2 tornado near Moreland in Coweta County, and an EF3 tornado near Sparta in Hancock County, which caused the fatality as its 140 MPH winds traveled an eight mile path.

Here is the preliminary report from the Weather Service as of late this afternoon:

TAYLOR COUNTY…THE TORNADO BEGAN NEAR TOMMY PRUVIS ROAD AND SB EUBANKS DRIVE AT 545 PM. THE INTERMITTENT TOUCHDOWNS WAS 3 TO 4 MILES LONG AND 50 TO 100 FEET WIDE. SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN…A MOBILE HOME DAMAGED AND ONE BLOWN OFF ITS FOUNDATION. IT WAS RATED AS AN EF0 WITH WIND AROUND 70 MPH.

JASPER COUNTY…THE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WAS AT 800 PM… APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES IN LENGTH…STARTING 9 MILES WNW OF SHADY DALE TO 2 WNW OF SHADY DALE…LIFTING ABOUT 810 PM. IT WAS RATED A WEAK EF1 WITH WIND ESTIMATED AT 100MPH. MINOR DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO FIVE HOMES AND MAJOR DAMAGE TO A SMALL COTTAGE.

COWETA COUNTY…THE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 923 BRADBERRY ROAD…APPROXIMATELY THREE MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THE STORM CONTINUED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT SEVEN MILES ACROSS SOUTHERN COWETA COUNTY…AND 1 MILE WIDE AT THE WIDEST POINT. THE TIME OF THE TOUCHDOWN WAS 830 PM… AND RATED AS AN EF2. AT LEAST A DOZEN HOMES DAMAGED ..SOME SUBSTANTIAL.

PUTNAM COUNTY…THE STARTING POINT WAS 7 WSW OF EATONTON AROUND 715 PM AND EXTENDED ABOUT 7 MILES IN LENGTH AND ONE QUARTER MILE WIDE. THE EF2 TORNADO UPROOTED NUMEROUS TREES…DOWNED POWER LINES CLOSED U.S. HIGHWAY 129…AND AT LEAST ONE PERSON INJURED FROM DEBRIS AS THE STORM WENT FROM WILLARD TO EASTONTON AND BRIEFLY TRAPPING OTHERS IN THE HOME OR CAR. A RESTAURANT COMPLETELY DESTROYED…AND SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED MODERATE TO MAJOR DAMAGE.

WILKES COUNTY…THE STORM REACHED THE WESTERN PART OF THE COMMUNITY OF TYRONE…NEAR HIGHWAY 44 AT 710 PM AND EXTENDED FOR 16 MILES IN LENGTH AND ONE HALF MILE WIDE. THE STORM WAS RATED AN EF4 WITH DEBRIS FROM THE DEMOLISHED HOME BEING CARRIED AT LEAST ONE HALF MILE. THERE WERE FIVE OTHER BUILDINGS RECEIVING MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE…AND A CHICKEN HOUSE WAS DESTROYED AS WELL.

There were also numerous hail reports, with golf ball size hail reported in Walton County, and 1.75 inch hail in Henry, Coweta and Clayton Counties.

For the next few days, it’s going to be colder than normal, with highs only around 50 degrees and lows below freezing at least until Wednesday. This is likely to balance out an already warmer than normal February. As of yesterday, Hartsfield airport’s mean temperature was 2.7 degree above normal. At this time of year, our normal high should be 58 degrees, with lows around 38. However after this cold spell passes, the outlook is for warmer than usual temperatures through the first week in March.

Long range, the outlook for March issued today by the Weather Service says we should see equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and below normal rainfall, and for March through May the trend of variable temperatures and drier weather holds as well.

Sphere: Related Content

North Georgia got plenty of rain today, and it looks like there’s more to come. As of 7:30 Wednesday, I’ve recorded 1.79 inches of rainfall, the most since October 8th, when another massive low pressure system rolled through Georgia and brought 2.31 inches of rainfall.

Other areas in the Peach state got even more.  Since 7 PM yesterday:

Alpharetta – 1.84 inches
Atlanta – 1.76 inches
Athens – 0.76 inches
Cartersville – 1.65 inches
Chamblee: 1.91 inches
Dunwoody: 2.07 inches
Gainesville: 1.5 inches
Macon – 2.25 inches (and record precipitation for December 10th)
Peachtree City – 2.2 inches
Rome – 1.65 inches

In addition to the rain, there was a tornado sighting today near Tallapoosa.  The weather service reported an F0 tornado early this morning 3 miles northeast of that location in Haralson County. Closer to Atlanta, flooding is forecast for the Big Creek in Alpharetta.

All the rain has been good news for Lake Lanier.  The latest reading has the lake level at 1051.17 inches, which is .18 of a foot, or about 2.2 inches higher than it was early this morning.  And, the rain is not over yet.  Overnight a second wave of wet weather will visit north Georgia, possibly doubling the amount of rain we’ve had already.

By tomorrow night, the upper low that has been responsible for much of the rain will move northeast of Atlanta, and the cold front associated with it will bring a chance of snow to the northwest part of the state. Because of the warmup due to the rain, it’s not expected to produce any accumulation and if there is any, it should be confined to the northwest corner of Georgia. Folks in Mississippi aren’t so lucky, though.  The weather service has issued a winter storm warning for much of eastern Mississippi, predicting 3-5 inches of snow. In Louisiana, half an inch is possible.

Sphere: Related Content

The two maps below show the tremendous difference a tropical system can make in dampening the effects of a drought. The map at left shows drought conditions in Georgia as of Tuesday, August 19th, when almost ten percent of the state was in exceptional drought conditions and only two percent was drought free. The right hand map shows conditions as of Tuesday morning the 26th at 7 AM. Now, none of the state is in exceptional drought, and 16% is drought free.

Remember, the cutoff for the drought maps was 7 AM Tuesday, which was before a good bit of the rain hit North Georgia, so I expect to see continued improvement with next week’s drought monitor as well. Lake Lanier has also risen just over two feet from the rainfall brought on by Fay.

The weather service has investigated the severe weather brought about by Fay, and has issued a report saying that there were six tornadoes in Georgia brought on by the storm. Most of the damage was in Hall and Jackson counties. Three EF1 tornadoes with 90 MPH winds were verified in Hall, where trees were knocked down and damage was reported to an elementary school.

Another tornado with 100 MPH winds touched down near Commerce in Jackson County, while two additional EF0 tornadoes with 70 MPH winds were reported in Monroe and Wilkes counties.

(more…)

Sphere: Related Content

The June heat wave continued to set records today throughout the east coast. Here are some of the new records:

Atlanta: 98 degrees, with the old record of 97 set in 1995. In addition, this morning’s low temperature of 76 was warmer than the previous high minimum temperature for June 9th of 75 degrees.
Athens: 102 degrees, besting the previous record of 99, set in 1926.
Columbus: 97 ties the record set back in 1986
Macon: 100 ties the previous record from 1954.

Other locations in Georgia, including Augusta, Gainesville, Albany and Savannah also saw highs in the upper 90s, but failed to break any records. Here at my unofficial weather station, I recorded 97 degrees around 2:30 PM. Additional records from around the eastern seaboard:

Raleigh, North Carolina – 99 degrees breaks previous record of 98 set in 1999
Richmond, Virginia – Tied record high of 98 set in 1999.
Atlantic City NJ – 98 degrees beats previous record of 96 set in 1984
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania – Tied record high of 95 set in 1999
Hartford, Connecticut – Tied record high of 96 set in 1984
Providence, Rhode Island – 97 degrees tops previous record 95 set in 1984
New York LaGuardia Airport high temperature of 99 tops previous record of 95 from 1984
Newark, New Jersey ties old record of 99 set in 1933

(more…)

Sphere: Related Content