With the start of the new month, it’s time to take a look back at February, and a look ahead to March. Here in Lawrenceville, we had a low of 26.9 degrees on the 11th, and a high of 73.2 on the 22nd, with a mean temperature of 47.4 degrees, about two degrees warmer than normal.

For precipitation, we recorded 5.3 inches of rain, or about half an inch more than normal, when you figure in averages for Atlanta and Athens. About two inches of that came in on President’s day, when the year’s first severe thunderstorms and hail pounded the area. Overall, though, we’re still about an inch and a half below normal precipitation, due to the extremely dry weather in January.

I dutifully looked at the National Weather Service’s updated monthly forecast this morning, and saw what looked a lot like the maps I posted back on February 17th. The main difference is that it’s now predicted to be colder than normal out through Arkansas and Missouri, where before it was only supposed to be colder in Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

What I found more interesting was this graphic of predicted 6-10 day temperatures:

The entire eastern half of the country will be colder than normal, and the western half will be warmer than normal.

This unusual situation is being caused by what the forecasters say is “a high PNA combined with a negative NAO and a blocking ridge over Iceland”. Translated into English, that means that high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest forces the cold, Arctic air down over the Great Plains until it lands at the East coast, where it is blocked by the high pressure over the North Atlantic. Right now, there is no end to this pattern in sight – we should continue through mid-March with highs only reaching the low 60s, and the reason we’ll be that warm is that the sun is getting fairly high in the sky, and providing daytime heating. At night, it will still go down to around freezing.

So, what about precipitation? Forecasts for the month call for equal chances of above or below normal precipitation north Georgia for the month. A storm later this week is likely to pass to our south and spoil spring break in Florida, and models show another chance of wet weather on the 8th, the 12th, and again around St. Patrick’s day. Keep in mind, though, that models that far out can change considerably within a few days, so this is by no means definite. I still think that we have a chance to see some more wintry weather, although it may turn out to be no more than this morning’s flurries.

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Metro Atlanta work up today to light snow flurries, which continue to fall as I write this.

A band of flurries passed across the area between 4 and 5 this morning, and additional light snow was reported through about 10 AM.

These two pictures show some light snow covering my yard, and the surrounding street. Although a few areas reported icy patches during the morning drive, all in all, the snow is not a problem, and won’t last, as the skies will clear during the day.

Overnight, we’ll see a hard freeze, with temperatures dropping to around 25, which may cause problems for the Bradford Pears that are preparing to bloom.

This light snow is just a touch of a major storm that is dumping lots of snow in the Northeast United States.

In Boston, they’ve had 8 1/2 inches of snow as of 8:30 this morning, while in Central Park, 7 1/2 inches fell. 9 inches fell in Newark, and 5 inches fell in Baltimore.

Continued snow is expected in the Northeast for the rest of the day, before tapering off this evening, with an additional foot expected in some areas.

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Forecasters on the eastern seaboard are keeping a sharp eye on the low pressure system that is currently tracking across the Gulf coast.
The path of the storm will determine whether the northeast gets rain, snow, or a blizzard. The image to the right is my crude drawing of the storm’s expected path, based on the 6Z Sunday runs of the GFS and NAM forecast models. The NAM prefers a more inland route, while the GFS shows the low moving out to sea, before getting back on land in Rhode Island.

With the NAM model, Atlanta gets more rain later today and tonight than we would get with the GFS model. Further north, the major East coast cities get a few inches of snow, before the weather turns into rain … essentially a non-event.

With the GFS model, East coast cities get a major blizzard, with 8-12 inches of snow possible in some areas in northern Virginia, eastern Pennsylvania, and Boston. The storm will also be affected by a cold front moving from Minnesota across the Great Lakes, and through Pennsylvania tonight and Monday. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

Here in Georgia, the storm plays itself out by midday Monday, with no threat of snow or freezing rain. Then, a cold wave comes in, with low temps Monday through Wednesday nights below freezing, and daytime highs below 50. During this period, we might see a few flurries, but nothing to worry about unless you plan to go to the Carolina mountains.

Longer term, all indications call for colder than normal temps through mid-March. It’s ironic how we have apparently traded the first two weeks of January for the first two weeks of March, temperature-wise.

After this weekend’s storm, we have high pressure in the area for the week, with a possible weak frontal system causing precipitation on Saturday. There’s a more likely chance of bad weather on March 8th and again on March 11th. It’s too early to tell whether this will be rain, snow, or a mix.

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It looks like our southern groundhog may have had it wrong earlier this month when he predicted an early spring for Georgia. Looking at the long range forecasts, once we get past this weekend, the first week of March looks a lot more like it should be the first week of February.

Short Term, the threat of thunder moves south of us today, and we’ll have warm weather once the fog burns off later this morning. Tomorrow, colder air approaches from the north as moisture approaches from the south, setting up a wedge situation in our area. Although this is the same type of weather that created our ice storm last month, at this point, at least, it looks like it will be cold rain rather than ice, but things could change.

Seasonable temperatures return for the weekend, with highs in the upper 50s, and lows in the upper 30s.

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As of noon Saturday, temperatures were hovering around 29 degrees, up from an overnight low of 26°. We had a high of 31° shortly after 7 PM, still below the freezing mark. There is a possibility of additional precipitation this evening, with an upper wave rotating into Georgia. The National Weather Service extended its Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM, citing the lack of improvement in the weather conditions.

It looks like much of the precipitation overnight on Friday night was sleet, with about 1/2 inch on the ground, and less than 1/4 inch of ice on the trees. Later on during the day Saturday, this changed to mixed rain and sleet, which built up the ice on exposed objects to about 3/8 inch, and made driving difficult. The Weather Channel was reporting an inch of sleet as of late afternoon in metro Atlanta. By Saturday night, you could hear the trees crackling as the wind blew, and over 100,000 Georgia customers had lost power due to the storm. The good news is that by 10 AM on Sunday, temperatures will begin to warm up, with a high on Sunday of 44.

To the right is a picture of ice-laden dogwood trees backlit by the neighborhood streetlight on Saturday evening. Click here to view additional pictures of the effects of the weather in our area.

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