The latest drought report, as of July 14th, lists just over one third of the state of Georgia as being abnormally dry, including metro Atlanta and Gwinnett. This is despite the one to three inches of rain that fell on Sunday. While this may seem ominous, keep in mind that a year ago over half the state was in a severe drought.

The other bit of good news is that the drought outlook isn’t calling for any drought to develop east of the Mississippi River through October. There’s a better than even chance for precipitation tonight and tomorrow, and both the 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks for Georgia are calling for wetter then normal weather.

In addition, both the one month and three month outlooks for August and August through October are calling for equal chances of above and below normal temperature and precipitation.

Sphere: Related Content

A month after the climatologists said that the North Georgia drought was over, the state Environmental Protection Division has caught up. As of today, most watering restrictions have been lifted throughout the region. You are still limited to watering on your assigned odd-even days, either Monday, Wednesday and Saturday or Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday, but you can water any time you like.

The EPD does recommend that you not water between 10 AM and 4 PM, since during those hours more water can be lost to evaporation, making watering less useful. This is a return to level one watering restrictions. Level two restrictions, which we were under for much of 2007, limited watering to between midnight and 10 AM. We never were subjected to level 3 restrictions, which would have limited watering to a single day a week.

Before you turn on those sprinklers full blast, though, be aware that water rates have changed since the last time we were drought free. The big change is a summer surcharge for excessive water use. For example, in Gwinnett County, you could pay twice the normal rate per 1,000 gallons for amounts above 20% of your average use from January through March.

Sphere: Related Content

Compared to the past few years, the weather this spring in North Georgia has been wet. Virtually the entire state reported above-normal rainfall in April, which followed a wetter than normal March.

Some unofficial reports of rainfall totals in April were over ten inches in South Georgia, while the highest official total was 7.3 inches in Alma, over four inches above normal. Atlanta was 1.56 inches above normal for April, and Athens had 1.12 inches above normal precipitation.

May has gotten off to a wet start as well. As of May 6th, Atlanta had recorded 2.05 inches of rain, which is 1.31 inches above normal for the first week in May. With this morning’s storms and chances of more wet weather still ahead through the weekend, we are close to reaching the 2.8 inches of precipitation recorded for all of May, 2008, and will have more May rain than since at least 2004. Normal May rainfall in Atlanta is 3.95 inches for the entire month.

Lake Lanier continues to fill as well. The lake level is at 1064.95 feet at Buford Dam, 7 inches above where it was when the current rains started a week ago, and just six feet below full pool.

The latest drought outlook from the Climate Prediction Center says,

Several inches of precipitation are forecast in the short-term for the last vestiges of the once expansive drought that covered the interior Southeast. Given the expected heavy precipitation through the forthcoming weekend, and nothing indicating enhanced probabilities for significantly below-normal rainfall through the end of July, it seems likely that we will finally be able to close the books on this protracted and at one time serious, large-scale drought that has been affecting the Southeast for the last 3 years.

And, State Climatologist David Stooksbury reported earlier this week that conditions on Lakes Lanier and Hartwell have improved to mild drought from moderate drought because of the increasing lake levels. The rest of the state is drought free. He reports above normal soil moisture for most of the state, and normal to above normal stream flows. He says,

May is typically one of the drier months in Georgia. Additionally, with high temperatures routinely in the 80s and plant water use very high, moisture loss is accelerated. We normally expect the soils to start to dry out this month.

As we progress through the summer into the middle of fall, moisture loss from the soil – due to evaporation and plant use – is normally greater than rainfall. With normal weather over the next several months, Georgians can expect to see a drying of the soils. However, this is normal and does not mean that Georgia is heading back into a drought.

Sphere: Related Content

Widespread March rainfall has caused all but a few North Georgia counties to become drought free. According to information from Georgia Climatologist David Stooksbury, the only counties still considered to be in moderate drought are Union, Towns, Rabun, Lumpkin, White, Habersham, Hall and Stephens. A few northwest Georgia counties are drought free, while the remainder, including Gwinnett, are classified as abnormally dry, mostly due to the long-term rain deficit we’ve experienced for the past four years.

Atlanta has recorded 7.12 inches of rain in March, over two inches more than normal. For the year, the deficit is 1.09 inches. With 7.03 inches of March rain in Athens, the Classic City is only .39 inches below normal for the year. With an additional inch or so expected Tuesday through Thursday, both cities could be back to normal rainfall by the end of the week.

While the plentiful precipitation seems to have encouraged Atlanta area flora to show their spring colors more strongly than in recent years, the hidden subtext of the drought picture, which I assume will be reflected in Thursday’s drought monitor, is that the counties that make up Lake Lanier’s drainage basin, including Hall and Habersham, are still in a moderate drought. Last week’s rainfall raised Lanier’s level by over a foot, but the lake is still ten feet below full summer pool.

The current climate pattern of a weak La Nina transitioning to neutral is responsible for much of the changes to a wetter spring. According to Stooksbury:

Currently the climate pattern is a weak La Niña pattern tending toward a neutral pattern. A typical weak La Niña spring brings wet weather across the northern piedmont into the mountains, just like north Georgia experienced in March.

Moisture conditions are in good shape across most of the state’s northern half, but the typical moisture recharge period will be ending soon. By the middle of April, plants are in full spring growth and using tremendous amounts of water.

By the middle of April we can expect the soils to begin to dry because of increased plant water use. Additionally, by the middle of April, temperatures are routinely in the 70s to low 80s. This means that evaporation will increase. This late spring and summer drying is normal.

The outlook is for a few more weeks of recharge followed by the normal drying of the soils due to plant water use and evaporation. May is usually a dry month. Little recharge is expected from May through October, but this is typical for Georgia.

The big unknown is what the tropics will bring Georgia this summer and winter. Much of the state’s late summer and fall rain comes from tropical disturbances. Without moisture from the tropics, August through October can be very dry. At this time there are no clear indications of how much rainfall the summer will bring.

Sphere: Related Content

As far as the weather goes, winter is almost over, and with it, the best chance for reducing Georgia’s long-term drought. However, looking at the rainfall we’ve had for the first two months of the year, we are woefully behind where we should be. As of this morning, we’ve had 4.39 inches of rain in Lawrenceville, compared to a normal of 9.19 inches, or 48%. Atlanta is doing even worse, with only 3.84 inches, or 42% of normal rainfall.

Most of the state is now listed as being in some sort of drought, as you can see in the map to the right. The biggest change over the last week is that the part of the state in moderate drought has increased from 30% to 76%. Less than 1% of the state is drought free.

In his latest assessment, state climatologist David Stooksbury says,

The cool season – October through April – is critical for the state. That’s when it typically receives moisture recharge to the soils, groundwater, rivers and reservoirs. Without significant rain in the next two months, Georgia is primed for another year of drought.

The major reservoirs of Lanier, Hartwell, Russell and Clarks Hill remain near record lows with diminishing hope for recharge unless there is a major weather pattern shift over the next few months.

This weekend does promise to bring some relief, with rain predicted for much of the northern half of the state on Friday and Saturday. Accuweather is forecasting 2.25 inches of rain for Gwinnett over the period, while the weather service says there could be nearly four inches of rain in parts of north Georgia, with the western half of the state more likely to get the heaviest rainfall.

However, once this system moves on through, the outlook for much of March, and indeed the Spring months is for drier than normal conditions for much of the Southeast. Lake Lanier stands at 1056.9 feet, pretty much where it was after heavy rains in early January raised the lake’s level by about three feet. Rain this weekend should help some, but it doesn’t look like we’ll be getting back to normal any time soon.

Sphere: Related Content