Once again, it’s Groundhog Day, when the marmots emerge from their holes and decide whether spring is near or not. This year, Lilburn’s own Beauregard Lee emerged on a rainy morning and didn’t see his shadow, foretelling an early spring. However, up in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania, Punxsutawney Phil arose and saw his shadow, calling for six more weeks of winter. Other woodchucks in Long Island and Canada also split on their forecasts.

Of course, the idea of an animal being able to predict the weather might be more valid if we looked at the timing of its emergence, rather than forcing a decision on February 2nd. For example, I saw the first robin of the season over the weekend. The daffodils seem to be running late this year, another sign of a late spring. The weather service also is calling for a late spring, at least in the south (see my previous post), and the outlook for the next two weeks calls for colder than normal weather.

By the way, how do they decide if the groundhog has made an accurate prediction? At least in Pennsylvania, they look at the number of days in the six weeks after groundhog day when the temperature rises above 40 degrees. If it’s more than half, spring arrived early. 40 degrees wouldn’t work here in Atlanta, where the normal high temperature on February 2nd is 54 degrees. By the first of March, it will be up to 60.

January wasn’t very warm. The mean temperature at Hartsfield Airport in Atlanta for the month was 38.5 degrees, which was 4.2 degrees below normal. It was a little cooler here in Lawrenceville, with 37.3 degrees. Athens was slightly warmer with an average 39.7 degrees, 2.5 degrees below normal. January rainfall was 5.38 inches in Atlanta, .35 inches above normal. Athens had more precipitation, with 6.2 inches, or 1.51 inches above normal. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded 5.06 inches of rain, however that might be a little short of reality, since my rain gauge doesn’t really handle snow very well.

There’s plenty more rain coming later in the week — up to three inches more. I’m getting tired of it, as I’m sure you are as well.

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With October now in the history books, it’s pretty clear that north Georgia had its second very wet month in a row. Athens reported 9.14 inches of precipitation, with only 1937 being wetter, with 11.23 inches. In Atlanta, Hartsfield-Jackson airport recorded 8.71 inches, with only 1995′s Hurricane Opal bring more October rain than last month, with 11.04 inches.

Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded 7.47 inches, in Gainesville, they had 11.2 inches or rain, with Macon and Columbus still top-ten wet, with 6.37 and 6.39 inches of precipitation, respectively. Even more of an eye-opener is the two month totals for September and October, shown graphically below:

The two month period saw 17.65 inches of rain fall in Atlanta, second only to 1888, when 18.25 inches fell. Both Athens and Macon had their wettest September and October ever, with 19 inches in Athens and 17.05 inches of rain in Macon. Columbus had it’s third wettest September-October with 11.69 inches, and in Lawrenceville, which received some of the heaviest rainfall in the September flooding, I recorded 23.3 inches for the period.

Usually heavy late-summer rain is brought about via tropical storms or hurricanes affecting Georgia, but not this year. (This season has had the least tropical activity since 1997, with one month to go before it ends). And of course the one benefit to all the rain is that it returned Lake Lanier to full pool, marking a recovery from the drought.

October also proved to be cooler than normal for North Georgia. Atlanta’s average temperature of 61 degrees was 1.9 degrees cooler than normal, while in Athens, the average of 60.7 degrees was 1.1 degree less than normal. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded an average of 59 degrees, cooler still.

It looks like we’ll have a chance to dry out during the first two weeks of November, though, and perhaps see temperatures a bit warmer than normal for mid-Autumn. The short term forecast is for dry weather, while the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are also calling for warm and dry. For the month as a whole, the Climate Prediction center calls for a 33% chance of drier than normal conditions, and equal chances of above or below normal temperatures.

Enjoy November, because the winter forecasts from December through February I’ve seen are almost unanimous in their call for a cold, wet winter.

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It’s starting to feel like we really are making up for all that missing rainfall from the drought. Today’s rainfall here in Lawrenceville of 2.52 inches brings the total rain for October here to 4.55 inches — more than an inch above what would be expected for the entire month. It’s the wettest October in at least five years.

Atlanta set a new rainfall record for October 12th today, with 2.5 inches. That makes the yearly rainfall for Hartsfield Airport to 50.68 inches. Normal annual rain for Atlanta is 50.2 inches, so we’ve met that milestone with nearly a quarter of the year to go. Athens also set a rainfall record for the day with 3.83 inches. The previous October 12 rainfall record for both cities was set in 1994. Lake Lanier is now at 1070.58 feet above sea level, having gained over half a foot during the day. The lake is now less than half a foot from full pool, although it would take a lake level of 1085 feet before it would be considered flooded. The last time Lanier was at full pool was in September, 2005.

Flooding is occurring, though. Suwanee Creek in Suwanee is at 9.79 feet, with flooding beginning at 8 feet. Big Creek in Alpharetta and the Chattahoochee River in Vinings are also at flood stage. I saw where the Yellow River had escaped its banks into the flood plain in my area.

Unfortunately, it looks like we’re up for more rain on Wednesday. After a relatively pleasant day tomorrow, the rain will return, and according to the latest estimate from the Weather Service, shown at right, we could have another two to two and a half inches through Thursday evening, with higher amounts in the northeast Georgia mountains. If that scenario does pan out, expect more possible flooding, since the ground will be even more saturated than when the rain started this morning.

Once all the rain does go away on Friday, we will be in for some cooler weather over the weekend. The cold Canadian air that has brought an early Winter to much of the Plains states is moving east. Right now, overnight temperatures for the weekend are predicted to be in the mid 40s, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up a bit lower than that.

Speaking of cold in the west, I’ve got to take note of the fact that in Denver, Colorado, temperatures dropped to a chilly 18 degrees Saturday morning, and didn’t get out of the 20s, forcing the cancellation of the third game of the baseball playoffs. The low temperature was the coldest it’s been so early in the season in Denver. Temperatures also dropped below the freezing mark this morning in Chicago. It was 34 in Dayton, Ohio and 28 in Grand Rapids, Michigan on Sunday morning. Record cold temperatures were felt in Montana, and the cold in Idaho may make it difficult for farmers in Idaho to harvest their potato crop.

It doesn’t look like things are going to get much better in Georgia at least through the end of the month. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts call for continued chances of above normal precipitation, and colder than normal temperatures in the 6-10 day period. Long-range winter forecasts call for a cold and wet winter in the southeast, a topic I’ll try to cover in more detail later in the week.

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Now that September is over, we can look back at a month that will be remembered for plenty of rain. Of course, it all depended on where you were: Gwinnett, Cobb and Douglas counties received far more precipitation than did the official measuring station at Hartsfield Airport. Still, it was the fifth wettest September on record in Atlanta, with 8.94 inches, or 219% of normal. It was the third wettest September in Macon with 10.68 inches, or 328% of normal, and the fourth wettest in Athens, with 9.86 inches, or 279% of normal rainfall.

At my house in Lawrenceville, I recorded 16.28 inches of rain, or 427% of normal rain. Gainesville reported 12.10 inches of rain, or 275% of normal, and Peachtree DeKalb airport had 15.74 inches of precipitation, or 420% of normal. The image above graphically displays the month’s rainfall. Click on it to enlarge.

Cooler than normal temperatures early in the month were balanced out with warmer than normal temperatures later on, ending up with a more or less normal average temperature for September. Atlanta’s mean temperature was 73.4 degrees, two tenths of a degree above normal. In Gainesville, the average of 71.0 degrees was 0.7 degrees cooler than normal, and in Athens, temperatures were half a degree above normal, with 73.1.

By now, even the most cynical will have to admit that the drought that plagued Georgia from 2006-2008 is finally over. A recent study by Columbia University indicated the drought wasn’t caused by global warming, and in fact wasn’t that unusual. The study says that the drought appeared more serious this time because of the Atlanta region’s growing population. While there was enough water for the region during similar droughts in the 1950s, not enough additional water storage was available to meet needs this time.

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Weather-wise, the rainfall that caused the record-breaking flooding in metro Atlanta is now over. Of course, it’s going to take a while for roads to be rebuilt, and damage to homes to be repaired, but the last few days of dry weather has allowed river levels to recede and land to dry out.

The US Geological Survey declared the flooding a 500 year flood, according to an article in the AJC. Basing their data on river flow gauges, the USGS said there is only a 1/2 of one percent chance of a flood of the magnitude we saw this week. That doesn’t mean it will be another 500 years before we see this much rain, it’s just that the odds are very slim.

The weather service reports nine record river flows in the area, including Suwanee Creek cresting at 14.3 feet, more than two feet above the previous record. Additionally there were five top 5 record flows at other river gauges. Lake Lanier rose by about three feet due to all the rain.

Here are some rainfall totals from Monday, September 14th at 8 AM through Tuesday, September 22nd at 8 AM:

Kennesaw: 20.37 inches
Lawrenceville: 19.32 inches
Marietta: 18.91 inches
Douglasville: 18.18 inches
Tucker: 18.08 inches
Kennesaw: 17.6 inches
Canton: 17.14 inches
Snellville: 17.13 inches
Roswell: 15.49 inches
Doraville: 13.88 inches
Chamblee: 13.19 inches
Johns Creek: 13.16 inches
Dunwoody: 12.37 inches
Atlanta Hartsfield: 11.23 in.
Gainesville: 10.27 inches
Athens: 8.72 inches

You can see the full list as reported by the weather service and cooperative stations here.

One of the major causes of all the rain was a low pressure system west of Georgia being blocked by a high pressure system to our north. Even after the storms passed, the blocking pattern remained, which caused the continuing high humidity and 10 degree above average low temperatures over the past few days. This weekend, a cold front will finally push the whole system away, and give us cooler temperatures with low humidity, and a chance to dry out wet crawl spaces.

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