110 Degree Summer Temperatures in 2080?

You may have read the banner headline at the top of Thursday’s Atlanta Journal-Constitution — NASA Predicts Scorcher for Atlanta. The article focused on the potential for daily high summer temperatures of 110 degrees in Georgia by 2080, 15 to 20 degrees above what we typically see now. The article was based on a press release from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, which in turn was based on a peer reviewed article that appeared in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. I tried to read the original article, which unfortunately is only available to subscribers, but was able to locate the article’s abstract.

The interesting thing to me is that the focus of the research seemed to be the effects of colder sea surface temperatures on precipitation probabilities in the eastern US. While the abstract says nothing about carbon dioxide levels or global warming, it appears that the bottom line is that if CO2 levels continue to increase by 2% per year, and you get a summer with extreme low eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, which would result in fewer storms in the eastern US, then daytime temperatures could range between 100 and 110 in cities like Atlanta.

Kirk Melhuish Weighs In on Global Warming

WSB Radio meteorologist Kirk Melhuish released a position paper this week that reflects his observations on global warming. The four page missive is well worth a read, both for his opinions on the subject, and for his command of English literature. He cautions readers to be wary of the extremists on both sides of the global warming debate, but acknowledges that there does appear to be strong evidence of some human-caused effects in the rise of temperatures.

He questions our current ability to correctly model Earth’s climate such that we can make accurate predictions about what the climate will be like 100 years from now, and thinks that it may take another 20 years before the competing scientific theories are analyzed properly to determine whether what is being predicted now is correct.

AccuWeather Releases 2007 Hurricane Projections

Hurricane expert Joe Bastardi and the weather forecasters at AccuWeather put out a press release this week with their predictions for the 2007 hurricane season. They forecast between 13 and 14 named storms, and 3 intense hurricanes category 3 or higher. While still a season with greater than normal hurricane activity, they are predicting fewer storms than Dr. Gray at Colorado State University, who is calling for 17 named storms, and 5 intense hurricanes.

AccuWeather thinks that the area most likely to be hit by hurricanes this year is the Gulf Coast, with the most danger from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, through Florida, and west to the mouth of the Mississippi.

If the predictions hold true, it will be bad news for an area that got clobbered in 2004 and 2005. However, it could mean an end to the drought that is affecting Georgia, since there is a good likelihood that storms in the eastern Gulf end up bringing rain to Georgia. Dr. Gray will update his forecast one more time, just before the tropical season officially starts on June first.

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Posted on Tuesday, May 15th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
Categories: Global Warming, Tropical Forecasts.
Tags: AJC, Joe Bastardi, Kirk Melhuish.
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