Ike Likely the Storm of the Year
I haven’t said too much recently about Hurricane Ike, mainly because I’ve been busy this week with other projects, and because there has been plenty of coverage in the media. That being said, I think that after the storm passes through Texas, it will probably be recognized as the storm of the year, comparable to Katrina three years ago.
Take a look at the Houston weather forecast. For Saturday:
Saturday…Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 45 to 65 mph with gusts to around 90 mph in the morning Decreasing to 30 to 40 mph with gusts to around 65 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
The real danger from Ike won’t be the amount of rain, nor will it be that the storm will remain over Harris County causing wet weather for days, as Fay did in north Florida. Instead, it’s going to be the storm surge across Galveston Bay and into the shipping canal that serves Houston. Surges of up to 20 feet are predicted, and the Weather Service is warning,
MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED… SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE…WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES…INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES…SIDING…GUTTERS…AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL. PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS…ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF…AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE…INJURY…AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED…MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.
The unspoken threat in the above is the possible damage to the energy refining and chemical production facilities along the coast. Some people are reporting gas stations already charging upwards of $4 per gallon. I noticed gas prices have risen by 10-15 cents since yesterday. We’ll know more by tomorrow evening, but this looks like one of the worst storms to hit Texas ever.
Here in North Georgia, we’ve been feeling the effects of the approaching Ike. While there hasn’t been a lot of rain, the tropical dew points have delayed the typical September days of lower humidity and lower temperatures at night. After a warm weekend, you can expect more seasonable weather by the middle of next week after Ike moves out. In the meantime, hope for the best for Houston.
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