1.9 Million Evacuate Coastal Louisiana in Preparation for Gustav
Not wanting to get caught like they did 3 years ago with Katrina, an estimated 90-95% of coastal Louisianans have left for locations north and west to get out of the way of Gustav, including an estimated 200,000 from New Orleans. Overall, things seem to be much better prepared than they were three years ago, although I wonder where Mayor Ray Nagin got this idea (via the New York Times):
The storm, he said, was now 900 miles wide, compared with 400 miles for Katrina. Even the capital of Baton Rouge, 80 miles inland from New Orleans, could experience hurricane force winds of up to 100 m.p.h., he said. But Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center, said he had no idea what the mayor meant by a 900-mile footprint, saying that hurricane force winds do not extend nearly that far.
| New Orleans goes quiet before the storm |
In any case, at 5 PM, Gustav was a category 3 hurricane, with winds of 115 MPH, located 215 miles southeast of the Mississippi River. Satellite images show banding reaching up into South Georgia. The latest pressure reading was 957 millibars. The storm has not strengthened as much as was expected previously, which is good, with the storm expected to make landfall west of New Orleans sometime early Monday afternoon.
Comparing Gustav with Katrina, shortly before landfall, Katrina had winds of 166 MPH, with a minimum pressure of 902 MB: a much stronger storm. However, the Weather Service has issued a strong warning:
IN THE AREA NEAR LANDFALL OF THE EYE…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE…AND ALL MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. MODERATE TO MAJOR DAMAGE COULD OCCUR TO WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES. MANY GABLED ROOFS MAY FAIL ALONG WITH SOME EXTERIOR WALLS. ALUMINUM AND LIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS…ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION. SOME WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL MAJOR DAMAGE…AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES. NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS LINES AND POWER POLES KNOCKED DOWN. THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL. NUMEROUS TREES…ESPECIALLY SMALL TO MEDIUM TREES…WILL BE DOWNED…SNAPPED OR UPROOTED.
MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION IMPACTED BY THE STORM SURGE MAY BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF BY STORM SURGE FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL MOVE WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY ALONG BAYS AND BAYOUS. A STORM SURGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The threat of the storm caused the Republican National Committee to hold activities at their St. Paul convention to a minimum on Monday. About all we can do now is wait and hope for the best. If you want to get a sense of what’s going on from the New Orleans perspective, visit the New Orleans Times Picayune website. You can also stream New Orleans’ TV stations here.
The next question is what is going to happen to Gustav after landfall. Some models indicate that the storm will linger in the Louisiana/Texas area and eventually peter out, while others show the remnants of Gustav being picked up by a low pressure system, and dragged east, which could affect North Georgia and Atlanta’s weather by next weekend.
Also, Tropical Storm Hanna has been chugging along slowly in the Atlantic. The latest projected track has Hanna making landfall somewhere near Savannah, Georgia as a Category 1 hurricane on Friday. Some models show landfall further north in North or South Carolina, while others pull the storm southwest towards Florida. Landfall to the north would minimize the storm’s effect on the Atlanta area, while a more southerly track could bring Hanna’s presence known here.
What happens with both Gustav and Hanna will be determined by three upper level features: a strong ridge of high pressure that will move from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic in the next day or so, a closed low pressure system that will develop off the New England coast and the aforementioned low pressure trough in the Northwest. Until we know the exact effects of these systems, North Georgia will actually be in for some good weather, with lower humidity for midweek, courtesy of the ridge.
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