Damp Weather Pattern May Move Out with a Flourish
The metro Atlanta area is about to see a change in the weather pattern that has brought greater than normal precipitation, and mostly warmer temperatures to north Georgia for the past month. Much of December featured an upper level trough in the west and a ridge in the east, meaning by and large cold in the west and warm in the east. It’s the big ridge over the southeast that has prevented much of the cold from reaching the Atlanta area, and has caused fronts to stall in the Atlanta area.
Right now, it’s 65 degrees here in Lawrenceville, but just to our west in Huntsville, Alabama, it’s 20 degrees cooler. A bit further north, in Lynchburg, Tennessee, it’s 25 degrees colder than here. Tonight, tomorrow and Wednesday, we’re set up for a storm that could be similar to the rain we got back on the second week of December, as Gulf moisture travels up the spine of the front. right now, it looks like the heaviest rains will be to the north and west of Atlanta, but we could still get between 1.5 and two inches before it all ends sometime Wednesday as the cold front is finally able o overpower the southeast ridge.
The weakening ridge marks the pattern change that puts a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. That means we’re likely to have more normal Winter temperatures and most likely less rainfall than we’ve seen recently. If we do get below normal temperatures, it’s most likely to be next week rather than this week. After the middle of the month, temperatures could moderate somewhat, although I’m reluctant to call for a heat wave.
Is there a chance of snow in the forecast? If you believe the GFS model, we might see some next Tuesday or Wednesday.
State Climatologist David Stooksbury said last week that it might be time to reconsider what normal rainfall should be for Georgia, noting that the overall precipitation pattern in the southeast US has been drier than normal since 1979. The Weather Service uses the period from 1970 through 2000 to calculate its normal rainfall, and eight of the last eleven years have seen rainfall less than the normal 50 inches per year. In any case, all this rain has been good for Lake Lanier. The current level is 1053.3 feet, which is almost three feet higher than it was before the rains started in December. Look for the level to go even higher with this week’s rain.
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