Weather Service Issues Final Winter Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center has issued its final Winter Outlook for the December through February period, and the overall forecast is for a warmer than normal winter, with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation everywhere except in the Southeast, where it will be dry, and Hawaii, where it will be wetter than normal.
Long-range winter forecasts can be derived by looking at the El Nino/La Nina sea surface temperatures and recent weather trends. In an El Nino pattern, the jet stream tends to be further south, bringing wetter and cooler conditions to the southeast. In a La Nina pattern, the polar jet stream is further north, bringing warm and dry conditions to the southeast. This winter, we have a neutral pattern, not affected by either phenomenon, so the weather service is looking at recent weather patterns, which have tended to be warmer than the 30 year period from 1970 to 2000.
While the a band from the Southwest to the upper Midwest will see warmer than normal temperatures, there is no real prediction for what we’ll see in the Southeast.
As far as precipitation goes, the Atlanta area is on the edge of an area stretching from middle Georgia into Florida that is expected to see lower than normal rain or snow. This continues a pattern that we’ve seen developing since August, where only tropical activity has brought rain to our area. It’s not being called a drought yet, but there is the chance of one developing.
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