Cold Weather Marks the Start of Winter
We are now just one week away from the start of winter. You may think winter begins on December 20th, the shortest day of the year, but from a weather perspective, winter is the three month period of December, January and February. We’ve enjoyed a relatively mild (albeit wet) fall, with temperatures yet to drop below freezing in the metro Atlanta area, but that will change soon.
The latest predictions from the weather service for winter are pretty much in line with earlier forecasts. Much of the South and Mid-Atlantic states have a 40% chance of colder than normal weather, while the upper Midwest and northern states should be warmer than normal. This is a typical winter pattern in El Nino years like we have this year.
The precipitation forecast also reflects typical El Nino conditions, with wetter than normal conditions stretching from California along the southern US border to South Carolina, and drier than normal conditions centered over Tennessee and Kentucky. This puts Georgia right in the middle, with the north likely dry, normal in the middle, and wet in the south. Exactly where the dry/wet lines fall could make a big difference in how the weather plays out.
The extended outlook for the first week of December, if it plays out, will give Georgia its first really cold weather of the season. The graphic to the right shows the temperature outlook for November 29th through December 3rd, with an extremely high chance of colder than normal weather. The 8-14 day outlook is similar, although cold is not quite as likely. The entire country from the Rocky Mountains east is going to be in a cold spell.
The extended outlook also shows a higher than normal chance of precipitation for the Southeast. Could this mean we have a shot at snow or freezing rain? While the weather service doesn’t get specific more than seven days out, Accuweather.com is predicting a chance of freezing rain the night of December 1st, with low temperatures in the upper 20s much of next week. Weather.com predicts warmer overnight temperatures not dropping below freezing, with showers.
Keep an eye on the forecast: we’ll have a better idea by the weekend on what’s in store for next week.
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