NOAA Predicts Above Normal Hurricane Season
NOAA has issued its outlook for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on June 1st. The outlook is for a 70% chance of above normal hurricane activity, a 20% chance of normal activity, and only a 10% chance of a below normal conditions. The above normal activity continues a trend of active tropical weather that began in 1995.
For the season, NOAA estimates between 12 and 15 tropical storms and between 7 and 9 hurricanes, with between 3 and 5 major hurricanes, slightly more than what was predicted for last year’s season. The intense season is in line with the predictions of Dr. Gray at Colorado State University, and with other forecasts I’ve seen.
Courtesy of NOAA
The weather service says that warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, along with a favorable jet stream from Africa, weak easterly trade winds, and expanding upper level easterlies will combine to create a favorable situation for hurricanes, particularly in the August through October period of greatest activity. For more details, you can read the full hurricane forecast.
Of course, the impact of hurricanes depends on where and if they make landfall, and how far inland they travel. Unfortunately, no early warning forecast is able to predict this. As the season develops, I’ll use these pages to provide plenty of information on tropical storms and hurricane development.
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