Fay Dumps Rain on Florida; Drought Predicted to Ease in Southeast
Tropical storm Fay continues to thrash around the Florida coast near Daytona Beach, and if the area was in a drought before, it certainly isn’t in one now. Total rainfall of up to 30 inches has been reported in some areas, with one observer in Brevard Country reporting 11.21 inches of rain in 24 hours ending this morning. Of course, rain amounts can vary widely over a local area. Here are some rain reports from NWS stations around Florida:
| Location | Mon. | Tues. | Wed. | Thu. | Total |
| Fort Pierce | 0.74 | 7.35 | 3.17 | .012 | 11.38 |
| Jacksonville | 0.32 | 0.01 | 1.24 | 1.76 | 3.33 |
| Melbourne | T | 5.10 | 8.78 | 0.93 | 14.81 |
| Vero Beach | 0.05 | 5.88 | 4.11 | 1.16 | 11.20 |
| West Palm Beach | 2.22 | 4.94 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 7.19 |
| Daytona Beach | T | 0.27 | 2.98 | 2.56 | 5.81 |
There have been reports of widespread flooding in Florida including 30 inch high water reaching up to front porches and car doors. The rising water has brought a variety of sea creatures on the runway at the Melbourne airport according to WSB radio, and the AP is reporting residents finding alligators swimming around neighborhoods looking for dry land.
Fay will begin to turn west overnight, but her center is forecast to remain in Florida and eventually on to Alabama and Mississippi as a remnant low. This won’t leave Georgia completely high and dry though. The southern part of the state will definitely see some rain from Fay, and the HPC is thinking that much of the northern part of the state could see as much as two inches on Monday and Tuesday as the high pressure system that has kept Fay so far south begins to move east, allowing Fay to recurve. There’s also a chance that we’ll see some rain over the weekend, but nothing like what we would have had if Fay’s original forecast track had been maintained.
The latest drought outlook came out today, and all of the areas in the southeast are forecast to see improvement over the next few months. Part of this may have been based on the failed forecast for fickle Fay–how’s that for alliteration–but part is also based on an above normal forecast for rain in the southeast for the 6-10 and 10-14 day outlooks as well as September. Temperatures could be above or below normal in September.
Taking a longer range view, the Farmer’s Almanac is due to be published next week, and a news story reports the Almanac is calling for a colder than normal winter for much of the country, and above normal precipitation in the southeast in January and February.
You can choose to believe the Almanac’s forecast or not, but realistically this winter is going to be ENSO Neutral. That means that we won’t have either La Nina or El Nino conditions; sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are forecast to be normal. In neutral conditions, weather tends to vary widely, neither favoring the warm, dry conditions of La Nina or the cold, wet conditions of El Nino.
Finally, I had a chance to listen to Gwinnett congressman John Linder speak at the Chamber’s monthly lunch. Linder’s talk was brief, but he brought up the dangers of believing the human-caused global warming theory, and the costs to American society the proposed remedies would impose. He managed to tie lack of progress in becoming self sufficient in production of energy and making sure we have enough water to drink to the agenda of the environmentalists who believe that humans have caused, and can cure global warming.
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August 21st, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Good writing once again, LW man. Interesting to see that this winter will be ENSO neutral — think that will cause the drought to ease up?
Regarding Fay, why is/was that high pressure area holding it down for so long? And..
Your comments on Linder — are you of a like mind (that humans are not causing global warming)? Just wondering either way. Arguments are both sides can be compelling.
Thanks for doing what you do, as always. I don’t always comment but always read.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:35 pm
First of all, thanks for reading. THis blog doesn’t get a lot of comments, but I know there are plenty of readers.
As far as ENSO conditions, meteorologists have observed differences between what happens with cold Pacific SSTs (La Nina) and warm Pacific SSTs (El Nino), and how they affect weather in different parts of the country. Weather conditions tend to be more predictable as conditions move to either extreme. In the middle, it’s harder to point to a specific outlook. Right now, the CPC is forecasting warm and dry, but that’s primarily based on recent trends rather than ENSO.
With respect to Fay and high pressure — air at a given point weighs more if the pressure is high than it does of the pressure is low. As a result, it’s more difficult for a low pressure system to move into an area of high pressure. Think of a feather trying to displace a piece of lead–it ain’t gonna happen.
In Fay’s case, it’s easier to move west, since there is low pressure over Texas and high pressure in the north. The Texas low is expected to move northeast to the Great Lakes, and the high is going to move over the Atlantic, which is why Fay will trend to the northeast eventually, following the movement of the other systems.
I’ve got to agree with Linder and many others that any warming that we’ve seen isn’t necessarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels. John pointed out in his talk that many species of animals and plants were created during the Cambrian era when the percentage of C02 was much higher than it is today. He also pointed out that high C02 concentrations tend to follow warmer temperatures. In other words high temperatures may cause increased C02 rather than vice-versa.
Now, Linder isn’t a climate scientist, but you’ll find that in the debate over global warming, things aren’t as settled as the AGW believers would like it to appear. Much of the debate has turned political, and I’m glad John is keeping a level head and studying both sides of the issue.