2008 Tropical Forecast: A More Active than Normal Season

With less than two months until the start of the Atlantic tropical season on June 1, the forecasting team at Colorado State University has updated its forecast, and is now calling for a more active season than originally predicted last December.

Drs. Klotzbach and Gray are estimating that there will be 15 named storms and eight hurricanes in 2008, with four of those being intense hurricanes.  This compares to the December forecast of 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. Between 1950 and 2000, there were, on average, 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes each year.  Overall tropical activity is predicted to be 160% of normal.

There is a 99% chance that some sort of tropical activity will cross the US coastline this year, with a 69% chance of a major hurricane making landfall.  There is a 44% chance that a major hurricane will strike the Gulf Coast, and a 45% chance that a major hurricane will strike the East coast or the Florida peninsula.

The forecasters are using a new methodology for predicting this year’s season; the second year in a row that they have changed their system.  Part of the forecast relies on sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic in February and March, another part examines the sea level barometric pressure in the Atlantic, and the last part is based on the December forecast.  The CSU team looked at these variables for past years, and did ‘hindcasts’ to see how well they predicted the following seasons, and have determined that they are more accurate than what was examined previously.

Another factor in the April forecast is to look at analog years — other years that have had a similar weather pattern in the spring compared to 2008 — and the tropical season that followed.  For 2008, they have chosen 1950, 1989, 1999 and 2000 as being similar weather-wise to what we have seen this winter and early spring.

You can read the entire forecast here (PDF).  They plan on an update on June 2nd, as the tropical season officially gets underway.

Sphere: Related Content

Leave a Reply