The rain we’ve had so far this winter has helped to reduce the drought’s impact on Lake Lanier, with the lake level now about a foot above its record low back in mid-December. Our best hope for a major turnaround lies in the likelihood of some significant rainfall from now through the end of March.

February and March typically are some of the wettest months of the year, with an average of 4.7 and 5.4 inches of precipitation respectively.  So far, February is running slightly below normal, but with more than half an inch of rain predicted for Sunday and a storm the weekend of the 22nd that could bring over an inch, we could quickly get to normal.  The Climate Prediction Center is calling for a better than normal chance of rain for the period between the 21st and the 29th.

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Although Georgia’s drought isn’t over yet, Governor Perdue announced some loosening of watering restrictions today that will take effect on April 1st. The changes were made to help the landscaping industry which was facing a very bleak year if the current no watering at all ban remained in place. The changes also resolve the question of what to do about swimming pools this summer. (more…)

Despite a string of several rainy days this month, it looks like January’s rainfall is going to be less than normal, and that isn’t helping the ongoing drought. As of today, the rainfall gauge at Hartsfield Airport stands at 2.24 inches, or 45% of the just over five inches we would expect in a normal January.

Athens is at 43% of normal, and Gainesville is at 34% of normal of what is normally one of the wettest months of the year. With normal rainfall in December, and the colder temperatures causing less evaporation, drought conditions have loosened slightly, as seen in the latest drought map to the right, but there is concern that real problems could arise again next summer.

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Back on Christmas, I posted that 2007 was not going to be the driest year ever recorded in Atlanta, given the Christmas rains. I also quoted the record as having been set in 1931.  Well, reviewing my sources, I found I was half right.  The 1931 amount was for rain through December 12th, not December 31st. They must have had more than two inches of rain in the last three weeks of December that year, because the actual record for the entire year is held by 1954, with 31.8 inches of rainfall.

With the good soaking we got on Friday, Atlanta’s rainfall total now stands at 30.55 inches for the year, or 1.26 fewer inches than the record amount of 1954.  There’s a reasonable chance that we’ll see that much tonight and tomorrow, but it really depends on where the bulk of the precipitation falls. Right now, a surface front lies across Georgia from southwest to northeast.  The exact position of the front will determine the amount of rainfall we see, but the HPC is calling for a band of two inch rainfall roughly between Columbus and Greenville, SC.  It may very well be that since Atlanta’s official rain gauge is at Hartsfield Airport on the southside, where more rain is expected, the record will be avoided.

In any case, the rain is welcome, although it’s going to be followed by colder weather to usher in the new year. Look for temperatures in the low 20s Wednesday morning, and highs only in the 40s on Wednesday.  By Thursday, we start returning to more normal temperatures, and even above normal temperatures for the first two weeks of the new year, with high temperatures reaching into the 60s, 15 degrees above normal. Lows should be in the 40s, also well above what we would expect to see in early January.

Meanwhile, tropical weather may be getting ready to make a late season appearance.  The National Hurricane Center is reporting that a low pressure system 950 miles southwest of the Azores is developing tropical characteristics, and could become a subtropical storm by Sunday morning.  We already had  Subtropical Storm Olga make a late appearance in mid December, so something is not out of the question.

With both Atlanta and Athens, Georgia on track to record their driest years ever, it’s becoming ever more important that the area receives sufficient rainfall during the winter months. Continued lack of precipitation could mean that drought conditions in 2008 will be worse than in 2007.

Georgia State Climatologist David Stooksbury writes that while recent rains have helped some in increasing groundwater and stream flows, it’s by no means a break in the drought.

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