June in Review and a Preview of August
It’s the third Thursday of the month, when the Weather Service releases plenty of data, both forecasts for the next month and a look at the previous one. So, let’s take a look.
The National Climate Data Center reports that last month was the eighth warmest June globally this century, and the 27th warmest June in the US since 1895. Is it global warming? The NCDC also reports that Arctic sea ice was the at third lowest level since record keeping began in 1979, while Antarctic sea ice was at the second highest level recorded.
A lot of the US warmth last month was concentrated in the Southeast, which had the ninth warmest June in the last 114 years. All but the northern third of the country was warmer than normal, as you can see in the following chart:
On the precipitation side, it’s not hard to guess that the upper Midwest was much wetter than normal, with poor Iowa having its second wettest June ever, and much more than normal precipitation in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. The drought kept its hold on Georgia (11th driest) and California (4th driest), the Carolinas and Tennessee all being much drier than normal:
Speakiing of the drought, last weekend’s rains didn’t do much to affect Georgia’s weekly drought monitor. There were no changes in the areas that were in exceptional drought, however much of the southeast corner of the state were newly declared extremely dry. The only part if the state that is ‘normal’ is Savannnah. However, the outlook for improvement between now and October looks good, with improvement forecast for all but the southeast part of Georgia.
The newly-released long range outlooks call for above normal temperatures for North Georgia in August, with equal chances of above or below normal rainfall. The rain-stricken Midwest will probably be cooler than normal, due to the wet ground. The three month outlook calls for above normal temperatures in the Northeast and in the southern quarter of the US, with Atlanta on the edge between normal and warm. Equal chances of above or below normal rainfall are predicted for the period.
The tropics are fairly busy for mid-July, with Bertha petering out in the Atlantic, two Pacific Storms and three possible storms that are being monitored. The one of most concern to Georgians is located off the Florida coast. It’s expected to track north, and bring rain to coastal Georgia and the Carolinas this weekend. It won’t do much to help Atlanta, however. In fact the previously predicted chance of rain in the metro area for this weekend has evaporated because the storm is predicted to track further east than originally thought.
Sphere: Related Content
July 20th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Here we are, in this seemingly insurmountable Georgia (and Southeast) drought. I am an optimist but have some thoughts on the issue. Let’s go back a few years. Georgia was in a severe drought in the years 1998-2003. This drought lifted in 2004 and reservoirs and streams filled back up. The current drought then began in mid 2006, but many forget about 2005. In 2005, Georgia was virtually bone-dry up until late September, when the first of 3 tropical systems rolled through the state. I remember this because my Bermuda grass was basically almost dead until these tropical storms gave it new life. So, to put that into perspective, it wasn’t climate, or Low Pressure systems, weather fronts, pop-up thundershowers (which are basically hit and miss anyway) that brought Georgia out of the drought of 2005 – but multiple tropical systems. Then we get to 2006…another very, very dry year in Georgia, albeit, with NO tropical relief in the Fall. 2007: came within .20 inches of being the single driest year in Georgia History! It actually WAS the driest year in Georgia history for many cities/towns in Georgia! Now, we are in 2008. We received decent rains in the early Spring but now the same pattern (8 out of the last 10 years!) exists. I am not a Meteorologist and am not educated on Climate Patterns…maybe they do oscillate in decades-long patterns, but I don’t think so. Anyway, we are sitting here in 2008 doing the same thing we have been doing for most of the last 10 years…waiting for Tropical moisture. The chances that a nice Tropical Storm will roll right up through Georgia have to be miniscule. With wind shear, water temps, etc, etc, it’s just not going to happen. 2005 was a beautiful year in that we got 3 of these systems! September-October 2005 continues to be the most rain I’ve received (due to the tropical moisture) and haven’t had even near that volume since. What I see now are trees dying, trees with half of their limbs permanently bare due these ongoing droughts, ponds literally drying up, wildlife (hummingbirds, etc) virtually non-existent at my house. The list is long and growing. Right now, Georgia is in its single wettest month of the year historically. For Seattle 2 years ago, Texas last year, the Midwest, New England, etc…This brought tons of rain. For Georgia, in July, I have 2.4 inches of rain…with not much at all forecast the remainder of the month. It seems like the only time we get rain anymore is during the Winter, when everything is dormant. Except for this Winter, NOAA is calling for much dryer conditions in Georgia from OCT-APR 2009. This is a crisis and, I believe, is evidence of a permanent changing of the climate in the Southeastern United States, to a more arid climate. All I know is, waiting for tropical systems, that may or may not come, is not going to end this drought!