Rain Deficit Increases in June; July May Bring Relief
Despite predictions of a reasonable chance of rain this past weekend, it looks like June will end up adding to the North Georgia drought. Overall, it ended up being drier than normal and warmer than normal in the northern half of the Peach state.
The official Atlanta rain gauge at Hartsfield airport ended up having the lowest measured rainfall for the month, with only .58 inches, or 16% of normal precipitation. Over half of that rain (.32 in) came during Sunday’s storm. Peachtree DeKalb had 1.15 inches for the month, 29% of normal, with only .11 inches falling Sunday. Athens had .73 inches of rain on Sunday, more than half of its 1.22 inches for the month, 31% of normal. Gainesville ended the month with 1.94 inches of rain, or 51% of its normal June total, and had only .12 inches Sunday. A little further south in Macon, rainfall was more plentiful, with 3.54 inches, 154% of normal for the month.
Here in Lawrenceville, I only recorded a measly .03 inches of rain in Sunday’s storm, but ended up with 2.24 inches of rain, mostly from the storms on Thursday and Friday nights. That’s still about 2/3 of the 3.75 inches of rain you would expect in a normal June. Atlanta is now just over 7 inches short of normal year to date rainfall.
The month will go down as the third driest June recorded in Atlanta - the record was .16 inches back in 1988. It was the fifth driest in Athens, and the ninth driest in Columbus. It was also warmer than normal, averaging around 3 degrees above the average temperature, primarily due to our early June heat wave.
The variation in rainfall amounts across the area despite forecasts of likely precipitation prompted the Atlanta forecast office to post an explanation of what exactly the ‘probability of precipitation’ is. It’s a combination of the confidence forecasters have that rain will fall in the forecast area and the percentage of that area that will receive the precipitation. For example, forecasters might be 100% sure that rain will fall somewhere, but feel that it will occur in only 50% of the area. That leaves a 50% chance of rain. On the other hand, there might be 50% chance of rain, but the entire area will receive it, leading to a 50% chance of rain.
The bottom line is that when you see such-and-such chance of rain, that’s the likelihood that at least some rain will fall on you.
The cold front that passed through the Atlanta area over the last day will bring more dry weather for the week leading up to Independence Day, with low humidity and open window weather in the evenings. After the fourth, however, there’s a good chance that we’ll get a week or two of above-normal rainfall. The CPC’s 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are calling for more than average rainfall for Georgia, and Accuweather’s forecast has rain somewhere in the picture from July 5th through the 14th. The just-updated outlook for the month of July calls for a 30-40% chance of above normal temperatures for all of Georgia, and equal chances of above or below normal rain.
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