July Heat in June and a Drought Update
The temperature here in Lawrenceville topped 90 degrees for the first time in 2008 today, with a maximum of 91.4 degrees at 2PM. In Atlanta, today’s high was only 89. But in any case, they’ll have another chance tomorrow and indeed for the next week or so, as we are under the influence of an upper level high pressure system that will keep the warmer than normal temperatures around, and probably keep the rain away as well.
All in all, temperatures are running about 6 degrees above normal for early June. And, this is about the usual time we see 90 degrees — last year we topped 90 on June 6th, in 2006 on May 24th, and in 2005 on June 14th.
Longtime blog reader Morgan Kemp reminds us of the ongoing drought by posting some comments by Georgia climatologist David Stooksbury made at this time last year, when the drought’s effects were really setting in. Actually, we’re doing a bit better this year through May. While most of Georgia had less than normal rainfall for the month, Atlanta is only 4 inches short of normal for the year, and Athens has had 6.4 inches less than what would be expected. Through the end of May, Atlanta recorded 18.65 inches of precipitation for 2008, compared to 11.73 inches for the same period in 2007.
It does seem like things are getting dry, however. While some parts of North Georgia saw beneficial thunderstorms over the last week or so, they all missed me. And, Climatologist Stooksbury issued a new report today warning that the hot, dry weather is likely to erase the effects of the improvements we’ve seen this year.
Much of the report is simply a recap of where different parts of the state stand with water supplies and rainfall. However, for the second year in a row, he predicts warmer than normal temperatures if we don’t get rainfall, and says,
For the next several months, Georgia’s best chance for widespread drought relief will be tropical disturbances. However, the tropics usually don’t become active until late summer.
June and July are critical. Without major rain events the soils will continue to become drier leading to lower stream flows, groundwater levels and reservoir and pond levels.
The outlook for an above normal tropical season remains strong, according to the latest update from Dr. Gray at Colorado State University, which maintained the same outlook as he did in April. And, there’s a better chance of tropical weather affecting the US mainland than there was last year.
Meanwhile, look for a better chance than normal for hot temperatures for the next two weeks, with rainfall remaining about normal. For the month as a whole, we’ve got equal chances of above or below normal rainfall and temperatures, according to the updated outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
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