Weather Service 2008 Hurricane Forecast: Above Normal
With just a week before it starts, the Climate Prediction Center has released its outlook for the 2008 tropical season. They are calling for a 65% chance of an above normal season, a 25% chance of a normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below normal season.
They are calling for between 12 and 16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes and 2-5 major hurricanes this year. This compares nicely with the Colorado State forecast of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, and is slightly more than Accuweather’s call for 12 named storms.
The major factors going into this year’s predictions include the continuing signal for more storms that started back in 1995, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures along the eastern Atlantic seaboard, and the continuing presence of La Nina conditions.
The most intense period of tropical activity typically begins in mid-August, and the Weather Service will update its outlook at the beginning of that month.
Meanwhile a new study published in the Journal Nature says that increases in the number and intensity of hurricanes we’ve seen over the past few years is most likely not caused by global warming. In fact, the opposite effect might be expected, with fewer hurricanes overall, and fewer making landfall.
The paper’s author, NOAA meteorologist Thomas Knutson, has in the past raised concerns about the effects of global warming in the past that he claims were censored by the Bush administration. Read the AP article about the study.
Sphere: Related Content