Record Cold On Tap For Tonight
It looks like we could have a record cold temperature this evening/Wednesday morning. The current record low for April 30th is 40 degrees set back in 1969. Forecasters are calling for a low of 36 in Lawrenceville, but only 42 for Hartsfield Airport, so it’s going to be close. The Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for most of the state north of Macon.
The cold air is caused by Canadian high pressure sweeping into the area following last weekend’s rain. Usually these cold blasts end around the first of April because developing high pressure off the Atlantic Coast (the proverbial Bermuda High) strengthens enough to counteract the approach of the cold front from the north. Between this round and the cold weather back in the middle of the month, we’re likely to end April with below normal temperatures for the month. You can be glad you’re not in Chicago or as far south as West Virginia, which have had a late season snowfall.
It looks like we’re going to end up the month with about normal rainfall for the third month in a row. Assuming some rogue storm doesn’t hit on Wednesday, Atlanta will end up with 3.22 inches of rain in April, .4 inches below normal. At my rain gauge in Lawrenceville, I’ve recorded 3.94 inches of precipitation, which is a bit above normal. The situation hasn’t been so good in Gainesville and the Lake Lanier area, where 2/3 of normal precipitation has fallen, or 2.67 inches of rain.
The outlook for the next few weeks also points to continued normal to above normal rainfall. Another frontal system approaches this weekend–right on time, given the pattern we’ve been having for the last few weeks–with the possibility of half an inch or more of rain. Another system may come by the middle of next week, and again on the weekend of the 10th. The CPC’s 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are both calling for above normal rainfall, although the monthly outlook for May says there’s an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation.
If we can keep the trend of more or less normal precipitation going for the summer it will help the agricultural part of the drought, but won’t do a lot to improve the still-lagging water levels on Lake Lanier, and the condition of the hydrological drought.
According to state climatologist David Stooksbury, much of North Georgia has received only 70-80% of normal rainfall during the October-April period when groundwater and soil moisture gets recharged. Stream flows remain at low levels, although not as bad as what we had last year. According to Stooksbury,
If Georgia has normal weather this summer, we can expect the soils to continue to dry out and groundwater levels, stream flows and reservoir levels to drop across the entire state.
The thing that could make the biggest difference this summer is tropical weather affecting north Georgia. The next few weeks will bring more forecasts for the upcoming season, but the hints I’ve been hearing indicate that there’s a reasonable chance that normal summer rainfall and tropical weather will combine to bring some significant drought relief.
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