The spell of hot weather we’ve seen for the last ten days is winding down. A trough split is likely to bring cooler weather to Georgia through the end of the month, with high temperatures below 90 degrees. Even better, we are likely to see some rainfall during the period, unfortunately most likely this weekend and next weekend, but with less than 20% of normal rainfall for July, who’s complaining.

While the lack of rain exacerbated the effects of the warm weather, we were nowhere near record breaking temperatures, which are typically the hottest of the year for the third week of July. The high temperature this week was 96 in Atlanta, and 97 here, however the records for the week are all in the 100s, including the 105 degree all time high temperature in Atlanta, set on both July 13th and July 17th, 1980. (From July 6th through 17th, 1980 holds the record high temperature six times. I remember that year — it was one month after I moved to Georgia, and I wondered what I was getting into). Still, we’re averaging about 1 degree above normal July temperatures.

Other parts of the country have seen plenty of records fall, though, particularly in the upper Midwest and Plains states. Even Europe is getting into the act — England recorded its warmest temperature ever this week, and you can see the parched course at the British Open on TV.

Tropical Storm Beryl is getting ready to hit the Northeast with more rain. While bringing relief from the heat, that part of the country is the one area that doesn’t need any more precipitation.

Looking beyond the end of the month, the heat is likely to return in August to many of the same places we saw it for most of July. The Climate Prediction Center just released its preliminary forecast for August, and on the temperature side, it largely matches the forecast for this month, except for the Carolinas, where normal rather than warmer than normal temperatures will be seen. Look for normal precipitation for August, which will likely be an increase over what we saw this month.

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The week of July 16th will have much of the United States in the frying pan, with some of the warmest temperatures of the summer. Highs in the upper 90s are expected for most of the country, as the below map of Tuesday’s predicted highs show:

Just to give you some idea, here are Tuesday’s predicted high temperatures, along with normal highs for mid-July:

Boise, Idaho: 97, Normal is 89
Cleveland, Ohio: 91, Normal is 82.
Lawrenceville, Georgia: 95, Normal is 88.
Little Rock, Arkansas: 100, Normal is 93
Missoula, Montana: 90, Normal is 84.
Montpelier, Vermont: 91, Normal is 78.
Omaha, Nebraska: 100, Normal is 88.
State College, Pennsylvania 95, normal is 81.
Tusla, Oklahoma: 102, Normal is 94.

You can expect to see a number of heat advisories nationwide this week.

The good news is, at least for Georgia, is that the models are advertising a cool down for the week of the 24th, with highs in the mid 80s, and a greater chance of rain than normal. We can only hope.

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The weather in June, 2006 will be remembered for a lack of rain in many places, and an overabundance in others.

In North Georgia, the average temperature for June ended up at 77.2 degrees, or about 0.3 degrees warmer than normal. In Athens, the average was 77.4, or about 1.1 degrees warmer than normal. Athens also recorded a record 102 degree high temperature on June 22nd, one of two days when the thermometer broke the century mark. However, here in Lawrenceville, I only recorded an average of 75.6 degrees, or between a degree and a degree and a half cooler than expected.

Rainfall, as is typical for summer thunderstorms, was very dependent on location. Atlanta had 160% of normal rain with 5.8 inches of rain, most of which was recorded during the last weekend of the month. However, Athens had a shortage, with only 1.97 degrees, or 50% of normal, and my rain gauge in Lawrenceville recorded 1.99 inches of rainfall.

The big weather story for the month was in the Northeast, as what seemed like never-ending rain caused flooding and evacuations. In Boston, 10.09 inches of rain marked the third wettest June ever. Combined with 12.48 inches of rain in May, it was the wettest May-June period on record. The torrential rains also affected much of the mid Atlantic states, with flooding in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New Jersey.

Also notable in the Atlanta area was the relative lack of humidity. We enjoyed a mean humidity of 65%–so far the lowest humidity month of the year. Compare that with an average of 78% in June, 2005, and 85% in June, 2004, and you can see it ended up being much dryer. Part of the reason for this was the relatively few number of rain days, but part can be credited to the bad weather in the Northeast, which led to a general northwesterly flow of air, as opposed to the more typical southeasterly flow, bringing humidity from the Gulf of Mexico.

What can you expect in July? The hot weather we’ve seen over the last few days will continue through midweek, when increasing humidity will lead to a chance of thunderstorms. After that, the long-promised trough along the eastern seaboard is likely to bring a wet, cooler than average period around the middle of the month. The weather service is still predicting a Georgia July with above normal temperatures, and equal chances of above-normal or below-normal precipitation.

One final note: On Wednesday, the sun begins to set earlier in the day, at 8:50 PM, instead of 8:51, where it has been stuck since back on June 23rd. It started getting light later back on June 16th, albeit very slowly - sunrise is only two minutes later than it was then. Things will start to accelerate, though. By the end of July, we will have lost half an hour of daylight.

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It may not seem like it, but temperatures so far this month have been lower than normal by about a degree. Even though it’s gotten warm in the afternoons, the dry air we’ve had for most of the month has allowed temperatures to drop into the low 60s at night, and as a result, we haven’t yet hit the typical 80 degrees by 9 AM condition frequently seen in Atlanta summers.

I’ve actually been able to get by for most of the month without air conditioning, but with the help of a whole house fan. The Atlanta area has been an oasis of relative calm, compared to other parts of the country — wet weather has drenched New England, and heat is settling in to the great plains. For example, Oklahoma City is 5.8 degrees warmer than normal for June, with highs reaching into the 100s when the normal is in the mid 80s.

The only thing that much of the Atlanta area is missing is rainfall. With the exception of about 2/3 of an inch back at the beginning of the month, I haven’t had any rainfall since back on May 10th. The storms we’ve had have been hit or miss - some areas got rain from Alberto, but none here. The Climate Prediction Center says Atlanta is in a moderate drought situation, but the good news is that they say we are likely to see improving conditions through September.

Taking a look at the longer range forecast, it looks like we may be back to a typical Atlanta summer shortly. While the air will stay dry through the first part of the week, more humid air is in the forecast for the latter part of the week. And, here’s the first look at the July temperature forecast from the National Weather Service:

The Plains are likely to get seared, and warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for much of the South. Texas gets a double whammy, with lower than normal rainfall expected, while the rest of the country has equal chances of above or below normal precipitation.

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The National Climatic Data Center has released the official temperature and rainfall rankings for April, and it turned out that it was the warmest April weather recorded for the US since recordkeeping began in 1895. For Georgia, it was the eighth warmest April on record, and the 31st driest April. Here are the rankings, courtesy of NOAA:

The country as a whole was 4.5 degrees above the long term April average temperature. 19 states recorded a top 5 temperature reading, with Texas and Oklahoma recording their warmest April ever.

As of this morning, the average temperature I’ve recorded for May is two degrees below what we saw in April. Of course, May has been cooler than normal, although this is going to change for the rest of the month. We could see the warmest temperature so far this year today, and it’s very likely that this will be the warmest day so far this month. The normal high temperature for this time of year is 80 degrees.

The medium term trend calls for a likely chance of continued warm weather through the next two weeks. The Weather Service’s long range outlook for June calls for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and rainfall, although in South Georgia, it should be warmer than normal. For the summer months through the end of August, look for warmer than normal temperatures and equal chances of above-normal or below normal rainfall.

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