The Climactic Data Center of the National Weather Service has now declared 2006 to be the warmest year on record, based on preliminary temperature data for the entire year. In December, they estimated that the year would go down as the third warmest, but the warm spell during the second half of the month increased the average enough to break the 111 year record.

The national average was 55 degrees, 2.2 degrees above the 20th century average, and a measly 0.07 degrees above the previous record, set in 1998. In fact, using a new methodology for temperature measurement that will go into effect this year, 1998 remains the warmest year.

New Jersey experienced its warmest temperatures ever in 2006, and much of the Northeast, Midwest, and Plains states had top five warmest years. The Southeast and West Coast were also warmer than normal, although not nearly as much as the rest of the country. No state experienced below normal temperatures last year.

So, is this evidence of global warming? The Weather Service hedges the point, saying, “It is unclear how much of the recent anomalous warmth was due to greenhouse-gas-induced warming and how much was due to the El Niño-related circulation pattern. It is known that El Niño is playing a major role in this winter’s short-term warm period.”

On the precipitation side, things were nowhere near as extreme. Only Georgia, Florida, Wyoming, and North Dakota experience much below normal rainfall, while parts of New England and the Midwest had much above normal precipitation. No state set a precipitation record, either dry or wet for the year.

You can read the entire report here.

Sphere: Related Content

I’ve added a new feature to the site: the ability to monitor precipitation on a statewide basis. You can see the Georgia rainfall map here. The page is available from the Forecast page (right now just for Lawrenceville), although by the weekend, the map will be available from any local forecast page.

The maps show in reasonable detail how precipitation amounts can vary even within a single county. Data is gathered using a combination of radar data and local reporting stations by the National Weather Service, which produces the maps. You can view precipitation over the previous 24 hours, or for longer periods. For the longer periods, you can also see normal precipitation amounts, departure from normal rainfall over the period, and percentage of normal precipitation.

Thanks, and a tip of the hat to the Weather Service, which provides the data and the maps.

You don’t have to look at a map to know that rainfall in Gwinnett is sorely lacking. A trough has been hanging out just to our north, but a ridge centered over north Georgia is keeping the rain away. That ridge is expected to break up in the next day or so, which may mean we will see some rain before the weekend. In addition, it’s possible that an Atlantic tropical system may develop into a storm in the next few days, with a possible path over Cuba and into the Gulf. That could also bring some much needed rainfall to Georgia.

For the month of June, Georgia ranked just below average for rainfall statewide, although in Gwinnett, we were much lower. However, take a look at the map below, and see that much of the Northeast had almost the wettest June since recordkeeping began:

On the temperature side, Georgia saw the 43d coldest average temperature out of 112 years of recordkeeping. June saw almost record warmth in Nevada (111th of 112), Wyoming (110/112) and California (109/112).

Sphere: Related Content

The National Climatic Data Center has released the official temperature and rainfall rankings for April, and it turned out that it was the warmest April weather recorded for the US since recordkeeping began in 1895. For Georgia, it was the eighth warmest April on record, and the 31st driest April. Here are the rankings, courtesy of NOAA:

The country as a whole was 4.5 degrees above the long term April average temperature. 19 states recorded a top 5 temperature reading, with Texas and Oklahoma recording their warmest April ever.

As of this morning, the average temperature I’ve recorded for May is two degrees below what we saw in April. Of course, May has been cooler than normal, although this is going to change for the rest of the month. We could see the warmest temperature so far this year today, and it’s very likely that this will be the warmest day so far this month. The normal high temperature for this time of year is 80 degrees.

The medium term trend calls for a likely chance of continued warm weather through the next two weeks. The Weather Service’s long range outlook for June calls for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and rainfall, although in South Georgia, it should be warmer than normal. For the summer months through the end of August, look for warmer than normal temperatures and equal chances of above-normal or below normal rainfall.

Sphere: Related Content

March is likely to live up to the traditional saying, ‘In like a lion, out like a lamb’. From a temperature perspective, the month ended up about half a degree cooler than normal, on average. Atlanta’s normal mean temperature through March 29th is 54 degrees, while down at the Airport, the actual mean was 53.5, and here in Lawrenceville, 53.4 degrees through this evening. The means don’t tell the whole story, however. Despite breaking 80 degrees on the 11th and 12th, a cool period between the 20th and the 28th brought the month’s only freezing temperatures, with a low of 27.8 degrees recorded on the 27th.

A bit more worrisome is the precipitation trend. The image to the right shows the percentage of normal rainfall for 2006 year to date in Georgia. Most of the Atlanta metro area has had between 60 and 90% of normal rainfall, an the situation is worse for the rest of the state. I’ve recorded only 2.72 inches of rain here, while Atlanta’s normal for March is 5.3 inches. Even if we get an expected half inch of rain Friday night, it’s still only half of normal.

Our weather this spring is being influenced by a weak La Nina — the condition where sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are lower than average. This tends to cause warm winter conditions and dryer than usual weather in the Southeast US.

Right now, the forecast is for normal than usual temperatures and less precipitation than normal, at least for the next two weeks. The three month outlook from April through June pretty much calls for the same thing.

Sphere: Related Content

With only .07 inches of rain reported at Hartsfield Airport, September, 2005 ended up being Atlanta’s second driest ever. The worst September for rain remains 1984, with .04 inches. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded .26 inches of rain, with one tenth of an inch on the 26th, and .15 inches on the 28th. For Macon and Athens, this was the driest September ever.

The month was also warm. The mean temperature of 73.6 degrees was about two degrees above normal. The warm September wasn’t confined to Georgia, as much of the central part of the country also enjoyed warmer than normal weather.

Now that we’re in October, things may start returning to normal. While the temperatures may be normal to warmer than normal for the first half of the month, we are likely to see normal to above normal rainfall, primarily due to some tropical weather. Tropical Depression 19, which is likely to become Tropical Storm Stan, probably won’t affect the US at all, simply traveling north in the Atlantic. There are other tropical waves active in the western Atlantic, and it is possible that one will affect Georgia later in the week.

For October as a whole, the weather service is predicting normal temperatures and precipitation for Georgia. Later this week, we’ll see what the early outlook is for the upcoming winter season.

Sphere: Related Content