Weather reconnaissance planes found Alberto strengthening this morning, and developing eye-like features. The growing intensity of the storm means there is a distinct possibility he will become a hurricane later today or overnight before striking the Florida coast on Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, computer models are predicting a more northerly path than previously, and this change means that the storm will have a greater effect on Georgia. While early forecasts brought the storm out of Florida’s east coast just south of Jacksonville, and later forecasts had the storm entering the Atlantic somewhere around Brunswick, the latest projections show the storm staying inland as a tropical depression, crossing south Georgia and South Carolina, and finally entering the Atlantic somewhere in North Carolina.

Forecasters admit that model biases favor an even further northward (the GFDL model brings the storm ashore in Alabama, and takes a path through Macon and Augusta), however that is an outlier.

So, the chances for rain increase for the metro Atlanta area. This morning’s 7 day total rainfall forecast, shown at right, calls for less than an inch here (including any storms we may get today as a result of a cold front passing over late today). However, this was issued before the path of Alberto was altered. It will be interesting to see the revised 7 day total when it is issued this evening.

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A low pressure system currently located between Central America and Cuba could wind up being the first tropical storm of the 2006 season by the end of the weekend.

The system, pictured at right, has developed a disorganized circulation pattern, but at this point is only a rainmaker over the Caribbean sea.

One scenario has the storm continuing a westward move and ending up as rain over Mexico. In that case, it may never become an actual tropical depression or tropical storm.

Another possibility has the storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico, and then northeastward over Florida and into the Atlantic. At that point, the storm would move north along the coast, and could end up bringing more rain to New England, which really doesn’t need it — they have almost six inches of rain in Boston this month through yesterday and are expecting more rain this weekend, even before the storm would arrive.

Neither storm scenario is likely to bring much rain to the metro Atlanta area, however - at best, there would be some rainfall in middle Georgia. It’s too bad, because rainfall has been very spotty here over the last month.

You can keep up with tropical weather conditions at the Atlantic Tropical Outlook page, and if we get a tropical depression or storm, learn more about it at the tropical information page.

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After all the damage caused by tropical storms and hurricanes during 2005, it’s no wonder that the NOAA 2006 Hurricane Outlook made the front pages of the AJC, USA Today, and other major newspapers. Because conditions favorable to hurricane formation remain about the same as they did last year, the Climate Prediction Center is predicting another busy year for storms, with an 80% chance of an above normal season, and only a 5% chance of fewer than normal storms for the year.

While not predicting a repeat of 2005, the forecast calls for 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes. This compares with a 2005 prediction of between 12 and 15 tropical storms and between 7 and 9 hurricanes, with between 3 and 5 major hurricanes. However, the Weather Service notes that some specific factors that contributed to the large number of storms over the past few years cannot be predicted, and may appear again this summer.

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With the start of the hurricane season just over two weeks away, there have been at least three recent conferences to discuss the probabilities for the season, and to prepare first responders and emergency officials.

Florida held its National Hurricane Conference in Ft. Lauderdale this week, featuring presentations from Governor Bush and National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield. The governor urged Floridians to stock 72 hours worth of emergency supplies, while Mayfield tried to convince the 4000 attendees that while 2005 was bad, 2006 could be worse. He also pointed out that while predicting the exact path and intensity of a storm has improved over time, it’s still not an exact science.

For that reason, the hurricane center is going to change its forecast maps from showing a line representing the possible storm track to one that shows probabilities of a storm striking a specific area.

In New York City, officials held a hurricane conference this week to discuss the possibilities of a storm striking the Big Apple. Some forecasters think that a strike on the Northeast US is overdue, given the predicted intensity of the storm season, and the fact that the last major storm to hit the area was Gloria, way back in 1985. For a city filled with skyscrapers and millions of residents, even a category 2 storm could be disastrous.

Finally a group of forecasters met in Houston to discuss the upcoming season, including Drs. William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach of the University of Colorado, who are perhaps two of the most famous hurricane experts (just Google [dr gray] and you’ll get the University of Colorado website). They repeated their forecast of 7 named storms and 9 hurricanes for the 2006 season, and a 64% chance of a storm making landfall on the East coast.

Just for the record, here are the storm names that will be used for the 2006 season:

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William.

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With the start of the 2006 hurricane season less than two months away, Dr. Gray of Colorado State University has released his 2006 hurricane predictions. If Dr. Gray and his team are right, we’re in for another volatile weather season.

For the season, which runs from June 1 through November 30th, Dr. Gray predicts 17 named storms, with 9 hurricanes, 5 of which will be intense, or categories 3-5. In comparison, last year, the center predicted 13 storms, and 7 hurricanes, well under what actually happened. Overall, the probability of hurricane landfall in the United States is 55% above average.

The center predicts an 81% chance of a hurricane striking the US Coast, with a 64% chance of striking the east coast, and a 47% chance of a strike on the Gulf coast. This is strikingly similar to early predictions by Joe Bastardi of Accuweather, who also believes that the east coast is likely to get hit in 2006.

Dr. Gray also addresses the issue of the effects of global warming on the large number of hurricanes we’ve seen over the last several years. Like other hurricane experts, including Dr. Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center, he believes that we are at the middle of a long range pattern of greater than normal hurricane activity that began in 1995. This pattern, called the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation. This phenomenon is driven by the salinity of the Atlantic, and is believed to have nothing to do with global temperature change.

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