We’re over six months away from the start of the 2007 hurricane season, but that’s not too early for the intrepid forecasters at Colorado State University to issue their first outlook for what we might expect next year.

The Extended Range Hurricane Forecast For 2007 predicts 14 named storms , with seven hurricanes. Three of those hurricanes are likely to be intense category 3, 4, or 5 storms. This compares with normals of 9.6 storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes on average during the 1950-2000 period.

They predict a 64% chance of a major hurricane somewhere along the US coastline, and an above average major landfall risk in the Caribbean.

The above-average forecast still calls for fewer storms than predicted for 2006, although that forecast turned out to be a bust. They are predicting that the El Nino conditions that ultimately reduced the intensity of this year’s season will be gone by the time the 2007 season officially starts on June 1st.

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In a flurry of press releases, NOAA provided its annual update to the May Hurricane forecast, and released the temperature and rainfall statistics for July.

For the current hurricane season, the NWS dropped its total predicted number of storms and major hurricanes by 1. So instead of 13-16 tropical storms, we can now expect 12-15; instead of 8-10 hurricanes, we can expect 7-9, out of which 3-4 are likely to be major.

The change was made primarily because of lower than predicted sea surface tempertures, which are still above normal, but not quite as much as predicted (or what we had last year). They are still predicting a 75% chance of an above normal hurricane season, and only a 5% chance of a below normal year. Last year, we had seven named storms by early August, while this year there have only been three, although the heart of the season is yet to come.

Meanwhile the July 2006 temperature and rainfall rankings for each state have been released, and are shown below.

Overall, July was the second-warmest ever nationwide, with an average temperature of 77.2. The only warmer July was in 1936. In Georgia, it was the 90th warmest July ever, above normal, but not excessively so. It was however excessively dry in Georgia - the seventh dryest July ever. The weather service also reported that the average temperature during the period from January-June, 2006 was the warmest recorded since recordkeeping began.

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This weekend’s turn to (slightly) cooler weather didn’t seem like much of a relief, mainly because dewpoints stubbornly remained in the low 70s, making it feel just as warm as it had been when it was hotter. However, the high temperature on Sunday of 86 degrees was the first day since July 24th when the temperature didn’t rise above 90 degrees.

The cooler weather is imminent, however. In northern Alaska, they are now seeing their first sunsets since May, which will bring the temperature down, eventually, in the lower 48. The Dog Days officially end on Thursday, August 10th. And, the Weather Service is predicting a cooler than normal stretch of weather between the 15th and the 21st, when the eastern trough, which is just now getting its start, will make its way into Georgia.

Until then, though, it’s hit or miss thundershowers, with highs in the low 90s.

As far as tropical weather goes, Dr. Gray’s team at the University of Colorado has reduced the number of predicted tropical storms from 17 to 15 for this year, and the number of hurricanes from 9 to 7. Compared to last year, the season has gotten off to a slow start with only three named storms to date, but keep in mind that last year was a bit exceptional. August and September are always the busiest times in the tropics, and the forecasters continue to predict that there is a better than normal chance of a storm or hurricane hitting the Atlantic coast this year.

Finally, for those of you that went to check the weather over this past weekend, you may have found out of date information. The internet connection that sends current weather conditions to the website was erratic, but all the problems appear to be fixed. Please accept my apologies.

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A few quick weather ideas today …

The hurricane season starts tomorrow, and Drs Gray and Klotzbach of Colorado State University have updated their hurricane forecast for the year … somewhat. They haven’t changed their ideas at all from their original forecast last December, calling for 17 named storms, and 5 intense hurricanes. That’s slightly over what the National Hurricane Center is calling for, and more than what Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi is calling for, with 3 major storms making landfall, with the most activity in the Texas area early in the season, and the Carolinas and East Coast late in the season.

Meanwhile, protesters are at the headquarters of NOAA in Maryland calling for the resignation of National Hurricane Center Max Mayfield because he refuses to endorse the idea that global warming is causing the increase in tropical activity. Mayfield’s view is that the uptick in hurricane activity is the result of a multi decade cycle that has repeated itself over the years, and happens to be in a strong phase now. He does not believe that global warming has anything to do with it. Accweather’s Bastardi has a similar opinion in his article from the Durham Herald Sun.

Metro Atlanta may get its first real chance of significant rainfall since back on May 10th on Thursday and Friday. After spending the last two weeks dominated by a high pressure ridge, the trough that had been further west is moving east, and could bring some rainfall, although it appears the worst of it will be further north. After all the heat over the last ten days, I’ll be glad for some rain.

And, the weather service has updated its forecast for June. They predict that warmer than normal temperatures will dominate much of the southern plains states, from Arizona, New Mexico, and west Texas north to the Canadian border. Below normal rainfall is predicted in an oval centered over Nebraska, and extending southeast to the Tennessee-Alabama border. For Georgia, the weather service is calling for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

The shorter term forecast is for below normal temperatures and normal to below normal rainfall in north Georgia from the 6th to the 14th. They have been advertising this drop to below normal temps for the last few days, and it seems like they’re pushing it back much the way they kept predicting the current warm spell to start in early May, and then pushed it back until it finally got here. We finally got the above normal temperatures, and I suspect that we will see the cool spell as well.

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After all the damage caused by tropical storms and hurricanes during 2005, it’s no wonder that the NOAA 2006 Hurricane Outlook made the front pages of the AJC, USA Today, and other major newspapers. Because conditions favorable to hurricane formation remain about the same as they did last year, the Climate Prediction Center is predicting another busy year for storms, with an 80% chance of an above normal season, and only a 5% chance of fewer than normal storms for the year.

While not predicting a repeat of 2005, the forecast calls for 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes. This compares with a 2005 prediction of between 12 and 15 tropical storms and between 7 and 9 hurricanes, with between 3 and 5 major hurricanes. However, the Weather Service notes that some specific factors that contributed to the large number of storms over the past few years cannot be predicted, and may appear again this summer.

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