Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KICT 021821
ESFICT
KSC001-009-015-017-035-053-079-095-099-111-115-125-133-155-159-167-
173-191-205-030021-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1221 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2010
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES ENABLE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE
FORECASTS IS GIVEN BELOW THE TABLE.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID FEBRUARY 02 2010 - APRIL 29 2010
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
ARKANSAS RIVER
GREAT BEND 12.0 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.5 6.1
HUTCHINSON 8.0 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.6
HAVEN 10.0 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.3 6.0 6.5 7.3
DERBY 12.0 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.0 5.5 5.8 6.5 8.1
MULVANE 16.5 7.6 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.6 9.7 10.0 10.9 12.5
OXFORD 17.0 9.3 9.9 10.6 11.2 11.6 12.5 13.4 14.6 15.8
ARKANSAS CITY 17.0 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.6 15.3 16.0 20.1
WALNUT CREEK
ALBERT 24.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.3 7.2 9.0 15.2 18.5
COW CREEK
LYONS 18.0 5.5 6.7 7.9 9.1 10.1 11.6 13.3 15.9 17.3
LITTLE ARKANSAS RIVER
ALTA MILLS 22.0 1.0 2.9 4.9 6.1 7.7 10.6 12.8 13.9 19.5
HALSTEAD 25.0 6.0 7.2 8.2 9.1 10.2 12.6 14.0 14.8 19.1
SEDGWICK 22.0 3.5 5.1 6.4 7.2 8.1 9.6 11.5 12.6 16.7
COWSKIN CREEK
AT 119TH ST 18.0 9.3 9.3 10.8 11.7 12.7 13.6 14.7 15.8 16.6
SOUTH FORK NINNESCAH RIVER
MURDOCK 8.0 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.6 5.8 6.2 7.0 8.4
NINNESCAH RIVER
PECK 17.0 4.7 5.4 6.6 6.9 7.4 8.7 9.9 11.5 13.5
BELLE PLAINE 23.0 10.7 11.4 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.9 16.3 17.9 19.6
WHITEWATER RIVER
TOWANDA 22.0 4.8 7.6 9.1 10.2 11.4 12.9 14.3 19.8 23.7
AUGUSTA 21.0 5.9 8.0 9.1 10.7 11.4 12.6 13.4 18.2 21.2
WEST BRANCH WALNUT RIVER
EL DORADO 21.0 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.7 9.9 11.6 13.3 14.9 16.4
WALNUT RIVER
EL DORADO 19.0 3.4 4.0 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.7 7.7 9.3 10.9
AUGUSTA 23.0 7.1 8.0 8.7 8.9 9.5 11.9 15.3 19.9 22.3
WINFIELD 18.0 5.5 7.0 8.3 10.2 12.3 14.9 19.2 21.2 24.9
ARKANSAS CITY 18.0 5.7 7.2 8.1 9.5 11.2 13.8 15.7 17.5 18.8
CHIKASKIA RIVER
CORBIN 10.0 3.3 5.1 6.8 7.2 8.0 8.6 10.0 11.6 13.2
FALL RIVER
FREDONIA 17.0 5.5 7.3 8.6 8.9 10.6 12.2 13.8 15.8 23.6
VERDIGRIS RIVER
ALTOONA 19.0 5.4 6.6 8.5 9.3 10.3 12.2 14.9 17.8 20.0
INDEPENDENCE 30.0 8.9 11.5 13.9 14.7 17.2 20.1 27.9 30.7 37.5
COFFEYVILLE 18.0 2.7 3.8 4.6 5.3 6.3 9.7 13.8 17.5 18.7
COTTONWOOD RIVER
FLORENCE 22.0 4.7 5.6 6.9 11.1 12.1 15.2 20.3 23.3 24.9
COTT.WOOD F. 9.0 2.6 3.2 3.5 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.7 9.1 11.2
PLYMOUTH 32.0 10.8 12.4 14.5 17.8 22.0 24.3 27.7 30.3 33.7
NEOSHO RIVER
IOLA 15.0 8.1 8.9 9.2 9.6 10.0 11.1 12.5 14.4 19.1
CHANUTE 23.0 10.5 12.2 13.6 14.1 16.2 17.7 22.0 24.7 29.3
ERIE 29.0 14.4 16.7 18.2 20.2 21.9 23.4 28.0 32.0 37.7
PARSONS 21.0 10.7 12.6 14.6 15.8 19.3 22.1 24.4 26.2 28.1
OSWEGO 17.0 8.6 9.8 10.7 11.3 13.5 17.4 19.3 20.9 23.8
SALINE RIVER
RUSSELL 18.0 4.6 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.9 8.3 10.2 13.8
SMOKY HILL RIVER
BUNKKER HILL 20.0 2.6 2.7 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.3 6.3 8.0 10.2
ELLSWORTH 20.0 2.3 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.1 6.1 7.4 9.2 14.1
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE END
OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ICT FOR
MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.
$$
