000
FXUS63 KICT 192337
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PACKAGE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. STRONG LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH STRONGER GUSTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES...TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN
PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
OKLAHOMA WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MAINLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES. WILL USE A MODIFIED
PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN A TAD OVERZEALOUS WITH THE
GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS HAVE
BEEN BELOW CRITERIA. THE RUSSELL AND GREAT BEND AREAS COULD
STILL FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY SO WILL CONTINUE THERE UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER FOR WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONSENSUS
WAS TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS.
AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN KANSAS. ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES
CONFINED TO ALONG AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WOULD GIVE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH IS AGAIN IN SPIRIT OF INHERITED FORECAST.
THE FORECAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BECOMES A BIT MORE
MUDDLED WITH MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY TRENDS. THE
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DIRTY...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TENDING TO MIGRATE EAST FROM
THE ROCKIES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY COULD ALSO AFFECT THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT DEVELOP COMBINED
WITH RATHER WEAK OR NON-DESCRIPT FOCUSING MECHANISMS AND
LIKEWISE WEAK FLOW ALOFT SEEM TO SUPPORT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN/ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
MEMORIAL WEEKEND HOLIDAY. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
CONSENSUS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO.
DARMOFAL
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND LIKELY LONGER.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER UPPER RIDGING
THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AS A UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP STRONG LEE TROUGHING IN PLACE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 57 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 57 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 56 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 58 85 59 80 / 0 0 10 20
GREAT BEND 57 85 58 83 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 58 83 59 82 / 0 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 58 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 54 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 54 79 56 80 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 54 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 54 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-047.
&&
$$
