Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS71 KBOX 062037
ESFBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-070845-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2009
...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
THIS IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS
THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA DURING
JANUARY THROUGH APRIL. THESE OUTLOOKS PERTAIN TO THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...ALL OF
MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND...
AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
...PRECIPITATION...
AFTER A MONTH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER...
JANUARY PRECIPITATION AVERAGED CLOSER TO NORMAL /WITHIN ONE INCH/.
JANUARY LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION /INCHES/ FOR MAJOR CLIMATE
SITES IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWS...
LOCATION TOTAL NORMAL DEPARTURE
WINDSOR LOCKS /BDL/... 2.90 3.84 -0.94
BOSTON /BOS/.......... 3.35 3.92 -0.57
WORCESTER /ORH/....... 3.49 4.07 -0.58
PROVIDENCE /PVD/...... 3.94 4.37 -0.43
...SOIL CONDITIONS...
SOIL MOISTURE AS OF FEBRUARY 5 WAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TOPSOIL WAS FROZEN.
...RIVER LEVELS AND WATER SUPPLY...
RIVER LEVELS WERE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
WATER SUPPLY WAS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. QUABBIN RESERVOIR WAS AT
100 PERCENT CAPACITY AS OF THE END OF JANUARY...AND SCITUATE
RESERVOIR WAS AT 104 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF FEBRUARY 4. THE WATER
SUPPLY FOR WORCESTER WAS AT 100 PERCENT...SALEM/BEVERLY WAS AT 98
PERCENT.
...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID CONTENT...
SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AVERAGED 10 TO 18 INCHES.
DEPTHS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND
AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...WITH LESS ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. A
DEEPER PACK OF 15 TO 25 INCHES PREVAILED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
SNOW WATER CONTENT RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. AMOUNTS WERE LOWER ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI. HIGHER
WATER CONTENT OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WAS NOTED IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THESE SNOW DEPTHS WERE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. SNOW WATER CONTENT WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
...RIVER ICE...
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
RIVER ICE THICKENED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURES IN JANUARY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LITTLE ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT LATER
NEXT WEEK A WARM UP ACCOMPANIED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN COULD
PRODUCE MOVEMENT IN RIVER ICE...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR BREAK UP ICE
JAMS.
...FORECAST...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SOME
SNOW MELT. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK A SYSTEM MAY BRING
RAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...PRODUCING A RESPONSE IN AREA
RIVERS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
13TH TO 19TH OF FEBRUARY.
...SUMMARY...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A GRADUAL MELT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK A SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP.
THIS TYPE OF COMBINATION COULD PRODUCE FLOODING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGHER FLOOD POTENTIAL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
LITTLE ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT LATER
NEXT WEEK A WARM UP ACCOMPANIED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN COULD
PRODUCE MOVEMENT IN RIVER ICE...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR BREAK UP ICE
JAMS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE FLOODING AT ANY
TIME OF YEAR IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
FRIDAY FEBRUARY 20.
$$
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