000
FXUS61 KBOX 071103
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
600 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY WINDY CONDITIONS. THE
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN MODERATE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY OCCUR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WARMUP CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AN STIFFENING SWLY
BREEZE. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAVMOS GUIDANCE...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE. A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE DO NOT THINK THERE IS MUCH
OF A CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS NW MASS AND SW NH LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...AND IN FACT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY/VE BEEN AT NIGHT FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS. THERE WILL BE A VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS IN THE WAA
REGIME. AGAIN...A FEW SPRINKLES OR A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NW...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRATUS WORK IN LATE.
COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE MOST PART...BUT
DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH FROPA. SKIES LOOK TO BE
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS A
GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE BIGGEST FACTOR ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE WINDS. DUE TO GOOD MIXING...STRONG
CAA...AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WIND GUSTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO REACH LOW-END ADVISORY CRITERIA AT MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NW WINDS USHER IN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AFTER FRONT PASSES. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35-40 MPH EARLY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS AS LOW LEVEL JET
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS BROAD AND
PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...SO EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGE AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL START TO BACK TO W-SW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TUESDAY MAY RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING TO SHOW DIFFICULTY
IN HANDLING DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF NEXT LOW OUT OF THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES. UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD A BIT MORE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AT LEAST AS SEEN ON SOME OF THE MODELS...WHICH COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING LOW. FOR
NOW...LEANED TOWARD THE HPC BLENDING OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS
WOULD BRING PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SW FLOW IN PLACE AND THE CURRENT
TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A PROBLEM WITH MIXED OR FREEZING PRECIP AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT AT THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW...HAVE CLOUDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH AROUND THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES. HAVE A DRY FORECAST
GOING FOR NOW ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THIS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME LOWER
CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET TRIES
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD. IN ADDITION...HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS IN ALL TAFS ROUGHLY AFTER 03Z AT ALL TERMINALS AS LOW
LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 50-55 KT AT AROUND 2000 FEET. LLWS
WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY BRING NWLY WINDS GUSTING 35 TO POTENTIALLY EVEN 40 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KT LIKELY.
MON...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
TUE...VFR CIGS. LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MVFR CIGS. VSBYS LOCALLY MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TODAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO GO WITH A MARGINAL SCA FOR ALL WATERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. REACHING CRITERIA VIA WIND MAY BE A BIT IFFY IN THIS SWLY
FLOW REGIME WITH COLD WATER TEMPS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODEL DATA
DO SHOW AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW WHERE MIXING MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
DOWN 25 KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SCA FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...INVERSION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE WINDS FOR SOME OF THE MARINE
ZONES UNTIL SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY WHEN THE FRONT PASSES
WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARKEDLY INCREASING GUSTS. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR NWLY WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30-40 KT. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY. WINDS WILL START TO
DIMINISH DURING MONDAY.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS. MAY
SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON LIQUID EQUIVALENT ADJUSTMENTS
0.21 TO 0.35 ON 2/3/09
0.37 TO 0.62 ON 1/18/09
THIS ADJUSTS THE JANUARY PCPN TOTAL TO 3.60
THIS ADJUSTS THE FEBRUARY PCPN TOTAL TO 0.38
THIS ADJUSTS THE 2009 ANNUAL PCPN TOTAL TO 3.98
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ230>237-250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EKSTER/EVT
MARINE...EKSTER/EVT
