Weather for Madison, Wisconsin
Lat: 43.08N, Lon: 89.38W
Wx Zone: WIZ063
Wisconsin Drought MonitorThe Wisconsin Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Wisconsin land area in each drought level compared to the previous week. Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean. |
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Wisconsin Hydrologic Information StatementNote that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KMKX 171930
ESFMKX
WIC021-025-027-039-045-049-055-059-065-077-079-089-101-105-111-
117-127-131-133-182115-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
130 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NO. 2...
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
FOR ALL RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED ONCE A MONTH AND ARE IN ADDITION TO THE 7
DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS
ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID FROM FEB. 21 TO MAY 22
2011. IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS
INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE WISCONSIN RIVER AT
PORTAGE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 17 FEET. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE TO 22.7 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
FLOOD
STAGE
SITE (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WISCONSIN R.
PORTAGE 17 17.1 17.6 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.7 20.2 21.0 22.7
BARABOO R.
ROCK SPR. 18.5 18.1 19.5 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.1 22.5 23.4 24.2
W. BARAB. 9 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.7 10.0 10.9
BARABOO 16 15.3 16.4 17.1 17.2 17.6 18.9 20.4 21.8 22.6
CRAWFISH R.
MILFORD 7 5.6 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.4 8.0 8.5 9.0 10.5
ROCK R.
WATERTOWN 5.5 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.6
JEFFERSON 10 8.2 9.1 9.7 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.2 13.2
FT ATKINS. 6 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.5 7.0 7.1 7.7
NEWV/KOSH 10 8.1 8.5 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.7
AFTON 9 8.5 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.2 11.1 11.7 12.2 13.2
TURTLE CK.
CLINTON 8 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.6 9.0
E. BR. PEC. R.
BLANCHV. 11 8.4 9.0 9.6 10.0 10.5 11.3 11.4 12.0 13.8
PEC. R.
DARLING. 13.5 8.9 9.4 9.9 10.6 11.0 11.7 12.4 14.2 15.9
MARTINT. 13.5 11.7 12.5 13.2 14.1 14.8 15.2 15.8 17.1 18.0
SUGAR R.
BRODHEAD 5 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.5 6.9
FOX R.
BERLIN 13 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.5 15.8
SHEBOY. R.
SHEBOY. 8 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.8
ROOT R. CANAL
RAYMOND 9 5.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.8 10.0
ROOT R.
FRANKLIN 8 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3
RACINE 7 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.7
MILWAUKEE R.
CEDARB. 11 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.5 10.8 11.6 12.2
FOX R.
BURLING. 11 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.7
NEW MUNS. 10 10.8 11.5 12.1 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.4
ADDITIONAL AHPS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX LOOK FOR AHPS.
===================================================================
CATEGORICAL PROBABILITIES AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL
VALID 2/21/2011 - 5/22/2011
DEP FROM
---------FLOOD STAGES--------- NORMAL
MINOR MODERATE MAJOR OF REACHING
LOCATION STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT FLOOD STAGE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
WISCONSIN RIVER AT PORTAGE (PORW3)
17 90% 18 72% 19 50% 25% GREATER
BARABOO RIVER AT ROCK SPRINGS (RSPW3)
18.5 83% 21 57% 23 21% 31% GREATER
BARABOO RIVER AT BARABOO-SHAW ST/HASKINS PARK (BBOW3)
9 24% 10.5 11% 12.5 1% 12% GREATER
BARABOO RIVER AT HWY X (BABW3)
16 83% 22 18% 23.1 8% 42% GREATER
Rock River at Watertown (WATW3)
5.5 32% 6 19% 6.5 9% 22% GREATER
Crawfish River at Milford (MILW3)
7 60% 9 19% 10 13% 37% GREATER
Rock River at Jefferson (JFFW3)
10 60% 11 39% 13 11% 31% GREATER
Rock River at Fort Atkinson (FATW3)
6 49% 7 29% 8 3% 23% GREATER
Rock River at Newville - Lk Koshkonong (NVLW3)
10 18% 11 4% 11.5 1% 12% GREATER
Rock River at Afton (AFTW3)
9 83% 11.1 39% 12.2 18% 44% GREATER
Turtle Creek at Clinton (CLIW3)
8 14% 10 4% 12 --- 7% GREATER
Pecatonica River at Darlington (DARW3)
13.5 19% 15 16% 16 8% 11% GREATER
East Branch Pecatonica River at Blanchardville 2S (BCHW3)
11 45% 14 6% 16 1% 29% GREATER
Pecatonica River at Martintown (MTNW3)
13.5 63% 18 11% 21 1% 36% GREATER
Sugar River at Brodhead (BROW3)
5 44% 8 1% 10 --- 10% GREATER
Fox River at Berlin (BERW3)
13 75% 14.5 34% 15.5 19% 55% GREATER
Sheboygan River at Sheboygan (SEBW3)
8 6% 10 3% 12 1% NEAR NORMAL
Root River at Franklin (FRKW3)
8 16% 10 --- 12 --- NEAR NORMAL
Root River Canal at Raymond (RAYW3)
9 14% 11 3% 12 --- NEAR NORMAL
Root River at Racine (RACW3)
7 8% 7.5 8% 8 3% NEAR NORMAL
Milwaukee River at Cedarburg 3SE (CEDW3)
11 26% 13 6% 14 3% NEAR NORMAL
Fox River at Burlington (BRGW3)
11 31% 12 8% 14 --- 10% GREATER
Fox River at New Munster 2N (NMSW3)
10 96% 13 42% 14 18% 20% GREATER
STG = STAGE (FEET)
PCT = PERCENT
--- = DISTRIBUTION COMPLETELY BELOW THIS STAGE
DEP = DEPARTURE
========================================================================
*** EASTERN WISCONSIN STREAMS..INCLUDING THE FOX...SHEBOYGAN...
MILWAUKEE...AND ROOT RIVERS.
ABOVE NORMAL FALL TEMPERATURES WERE REPLACED IN DECEMBER
BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR NORMAL IN JANUARY BUT HAVE BEEN 2 TO
4 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO FEBRUARY.
MONTHLY STREAMFLOW AVERAGES WERE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE FALL AND ARE
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION INTO THE WINTER MONTHS... WITH
ICE IMPACTS CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED STAGES IN SOME AREAS.
WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS ALL EASTERN WISCONSIN BASINS.... THOUGH AN EARLY FEBRUARY
SEVERE WINTER STORM PRODUCED ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE PROFILE SHOWS UNUSUALLY MOIST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DRAINAGE AREA.
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR LONG-TERM DROUGHT INDICATOR INDICATES NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 INCHES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
ASSOCIATED MODELED WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES.
FROST DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3 TO 29 INCHES.
========================================================================
*** WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN...INCLUDING THE WISCONSIN AND BARABOO
RIVERS.
STREAMFLOW CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT
MANY LOCATIONS.
WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED FROM NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
CURRENT MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND 4
INCHES. THE CURRENT AVERAGE SNOW DEPTH IS GENERALLY AROUND 12 INCHES
WITH A RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 18 INCHES BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS.
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR LONG TERM DROUGHT INDICATOR SHOWS VERY WET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
=======================================================================
*** ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN...INCLUDING THE FOX RIVER IN RACINE
AND KENOSHA COUNTIES...
MONTHLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FALL AND INTO THE WINTER.
PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY WAS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. AN EARLY FEBRUARY SEVERE WINTER STORM ACROSS THE MIDWEST
PRODUCED ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
TWO WEEKS OF FEBRUARY...WHILE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WITH SNOWMELT IN PROGRESS DUE TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK... CURRENT MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE FROM LESS THAN
AN INCH IN THE LOWER ILLINOIS BASINS TO OVER 3 INCHES IN THE UPPER
FOX BASIN. CURRENT SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 6 TO 17 INCHES IN THE UPPER
FOX RIVER BASIN... AND AN AVERAGE OF 8 INCHES IN OTHER AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS TO AROUND 6 INCHES OR LESS ELSEWHERE BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.
FROST DEPTHS RANGE FROM 5 TO 12 INCHES IN MOST AREAS.
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR LONG TERM DROUGHT INDICATOR SHOWS UNUSUALLY
WET TO EXTREMELY WET CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER END OF THE ILLINOIS AND
NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN.
======================================================================
*** ROCK RIVER BASIN...INCLUDING THE ROCK...PECATONICA...SUGAR
RIVERS AND TURTLE CREEK.
MONTHLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FALL AND INTO THE WINTER.
WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
FEBRUARY.
WITH SNOWMELT IN PROGRESS DUE TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK... CURRENT MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM AROUND 3 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER HALF OF THE ROCK BASIN AND FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER END. CURRENT SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3 TO 17
INCHES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
FROST DEPTHS RANGE FROM 6 TO 19 INCHES IN MOST AREAS.
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR LONG TERM DROUGHT INDICATOR SHOWS UNUSUALLY
WET TO VERY WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
======================================================================
EVEN THOUGH THE RECENT WARM WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED THE SNOWPACK
OVER THE REGION...THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK OF NORMAL TO COLDER
THAN NORMAL READINGS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF INCREASING THE
SNOWPACK THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF POSSIBLE
STORM SYSTEMS.
======================================================================
THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
ON MARCH 2, 2011.
ADDITIONAL AHPS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MKX/AHPS
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC
$$
HAHN
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