Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KPAH 131550
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-
181-185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-
039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-
219-221-225-233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-
271200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1055 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVERS AND
THEIR TRIBUTARIES FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WEST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 13 THROUGH MARCH 27 2009.
IN THE TABLES BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE
THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS. EXAMPLE...THE OHIO RIVER AT NEWBURGH LOCK AND DAM HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 38 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 75 PERCENT
CHANCE THE RIVER WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 3/17/2009 - 6/16/2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD 20 15.3 17.2 18.0 19.0 20.2 21.5 23.0 24.6 29.5
MURPHYSBORO 22 9.9 12.4 14.8 16.2 17.9 20.6 22.2 26.3 31.5
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 3/16/2009 - 6/14/2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
OHIO RIVER
OWENSBORO 40 29.3 30.3 34.1 37.9 40.8 42.7 43.3
NEWBURGH LOWER 38 32.3 33.4 38.0 42.2 44.0 45.2 45.7
EVANSVILLE 42 27.8 30.2 34.9 38.4 41.6 43.3 43.5
MOUNT VERNON 35 27.8 29.4 33.4 37.1 40.7 43.0 43.4
JT MYERS LOWER 37 28.0 33.3 34.8 40.5 43.9 46.9 48.4
SHAWNEETOWN 33 26.4 30.9 32.4 39.5 44.0 47.7 49.4
GOLCONDA 40 32.2 34.5 35.2 38.8 41.6 45.6 47.7
GREEN RIVER
PARADISE 380 370.9 374.4 379.6 383.8 388.2 394.2 395.6
CALHOUN 23 13.5 14.6 16.0 17.2 21.1 28.5 29.4
SPOTTSVILLE 14.0 15.9 19.8 22.4 29.3 34.5 35.8
WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY 15 13.1 14.1 16.5 18.2 20.0 20.5 21.0
PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON 18 9.1 10.5 12.9 17.9 19.9 22.6 23.9
LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI 27 13.5 16.8 22.5 27.5 33.3 34.7 36.2
SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY 15 8.0 8.4 10.2 12.1 18.4 21.2 23.6
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS
OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A NORMAL OR AN AVERAGE PROBABILITY FOR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ALONG MOST OF THE REGION`S RIVERS. THIS
OUTLOOK INCLUDES THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS AND EXTENDS
TO THE WATERSHEDS OF THEIR TRIBUTARIES. THIS INCLUDES THE
GREEN RIVER IN WEST KENTUCKY...THE WABASH...PATOKA...LITTLE
WABASH...SKILLET FORK AND BIG MUDDY RIVERS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE CURRENT...BLACK AND ST. FRANCIS
RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
FLOODING IN THIS REGION OCCURS MAINLY DUE TO CONDITIONS OF
GROUND MOISTURE...RIVER FLOWS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS ARE USUALLY NOT A FACTOR IN FLOODING IN
THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.
...SNOW...FROST AND SOIL CONDITIONS...
PRECIPITATION TOTALS SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR ARE RUNNING
1 TO 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. LONG TERM SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
WHAT LITTLE SNOW THAT FELL ON THE 12TH WILL QUICKLY MELT
LEAVING THE REGION SNOW AND ICE FREE. FURTHER NORTH...SOME
SNOWPACK EXISTS IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY (GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH AN AREA OF 12 TO
18 INCHES IN THE UPPER HEADWATERS). NO SNOW REMAINS IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
NO LOCATIONS IN OUR REGION ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...
HOWEVER...MODERATE TO MAJOR RISES ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
UPPER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT CAPE GIRARDEAU AND THEBES LATER THIS WEEKEND.
OTHER LOCATIONS ON THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVERS IN
OUR REGION WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE OHIO...GREEN...PATOKA
...LOWER WABASH AND LITTLE WABASH RIVERS.
IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...THE BIG MUDDY RIVER AT MURPHYSBORO
IS RISING DUE TO BACKWATER FROM THE MISSISSIPPI.
IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...STREAMFLOWS ON THE CURRENT...BLACK
AND ST. FRANCIS RIVERS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.
...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
MOVE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
WEST KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN ONE HALF INCH. DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR MARCH 20 TO 26...CALLS FOR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMAL
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 47 AND 51 DEGREES AND TOTAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD IS AROUND ONE INCH.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF MARCH IS FOR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS AROUND 4.25 INCHES.
THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK...THROUGH MAY...CALLS FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE
TERM CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS MEANS THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES
FOR BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL...AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS.
...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT...THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPRING FLOOD
AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR 2009.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS FOR LONG RANGE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS (ALL LOWER
CASE)
ADDITIONAL STREAMFLOW DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOR MORE WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...VISIT OUR HOMEPAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PADUCAH (ALL LOWER CASE)
$$
LAMM
