000
FXUS63 KPAH 281801
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009
.UPDATE...
DISCUSSION FOR 18Z SATURDAY AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
OCCLUDING WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS S IL/W KY ATTM
WITH COLD FRONT FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
TRICKY AS IT HAS BEEN SLOWING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PASSING BY
KCGI ATTM. EXPECT IT TO REACH KOWB/KEVV IN THE 23-01Z TIMEFRAME.
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF IT THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS BRIEFLY
WITH THE FROPA. BEST CHANCE FOR SVR TSRA WILL BE ACROSS W KY EAST OF
THE LAKES. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR EVEN WET SNOW SHOWERS...BUT WITH LITTLE/NO
ACCUMULATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009/
A SFC COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED JUST OUTSIDE THE NWRN BORDER OF
THE PAH FCST AREA THIS MORNING...AND THE BOUNDARY EXTENDED BACK
TOWARD A DEEPENING SFC LOW IN NERN OK. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SPINNING THROUGH SRN OK. THIS VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO EJECT NEWD RIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY. LIFTING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WAS ALREADY
PRODUCING WDSPRD RAIN IN OUR REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER
THIS MORNING. THE NEAREST LIGHTNING WAS STILL IN THE DEEP SOUTH.
AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...MODELS /ESPECIALLY
THE GFS/ SUGGEST THAT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE SEEN IN SRN PARTS
OF OUR REGION...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER...AS EARLY AS 14Z OR SO.
AN ADDITIONAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE
A SFC WARM FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED
INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO REACH SVR LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY
AFTER 17Z TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. SEE THE SPC PRODUCT SWODY1 FOR
DETAILS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE ENOUGH FOR JUST SCT SHWRS
IN THE EVE...THEN SOME WRAPAROUND SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. THICKNESSES APPEAR LOW
ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE AT
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. ANY MINOR ACCUMULATION THAT MIGHT OCCUR IN
SWRN IL WILL BE ON GRASS.
AFTER A DRY INTERVAL...THANKS TO MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE A
SHRTWV TROF/COLD FRONT ON MON NIGHT. ATTM...TSTM CHCS SEEM LIMITED
BUT THERE SHOULD BE RAIN SHWRS AT LEAST. BEYOND NEXT WED...MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WELL DEVELOPED
CLOSED LOW EJECTING ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 BUT THERE REMAINS A LOW CHC OF PCPN FOR DAY
6/THU/.
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...AD
