Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS74 KBMX 051340
ESFBMX
ALC001-005>011-015>021-027-029-037-047-051-055-057-063-
065-073-075-081-085>088-090>093-101-105>127-133-071800-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
740 AM CST FRI MAR 5 2010
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THE OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE SPRING SEASON.
EXISTING CONDITIONS...
...RAINFALL...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WINTER SEASON ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA QUIETED A BIT IN LATE FEBRUARY AS THE FREQUENCY OF
PRECIPITATION EVENTS LESSENED. AS A RESULT FEBRUARY RAINFALL WAS A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS BROUGHT WINTER
RAINFALL TOTALS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TOTALS IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THIS IS A FAIRLY NORMAL PATTERN FOR ALABAMA
DURING AN EL NINO EVENT. WINTER RAINFALL FROM DECEMBER THROUGH
FEBRUARY AVERAGED FROM 90 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND
WEST SECTIONS...TO 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL FOR THE WINTER HAS AVERAGED 13 TO 20 INCHES IN THE
NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS...RANGING TO 20 TO 26 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME REPRESENTATIVE WINTER TOTALS INCLUDE:
LOCATION RAINFALL DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY
HAMILTON 15.95 INCHES
JASPER 19.02 INCHES
BIRMINGHAM 13.25 INCHES
TUSCALOOSA 14.07 INCHES
ANNISTON 14.66 INCHES
DEMOPOLIS 16.99 INCHES
SELMA 22.12 INCHES
MONTGOMERY 21.49 INCHES
ALEXANDER CITY 20.62 INCHES
TROY 25.39 INCHES
...SOIL MOISTURE...
THE RAINFALL PATTERN THIS WINTER HAS RESULTED IN SOIL MOISTURE
PROFILES THAT ARE WETTER THAN NORMAL. CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE
PERCENTILES FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AS OF MARCH 3RD
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
...RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AND RIVER FLOWS...
THOUGH MANY MAJOR RESERVOIRS HAVE FALLEN AND ARE AWAY FROM THEIR
FULL POOLS...SOME STILL REMAIN ABOVE THEIR MARCH TARGET POOLS.
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH A FEW IN THE NORTH WEST SECTIONS EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AS REPORTED BY UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)
GAGES.
OUTLOOKS...
...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME MODERATE RAINFALL IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH AREAL
AVERAGES OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
...LONG TERM OUTLOOK...
WITH CONTINUED EL NINO CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
SPRING...AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
FAIRLY FREQUENT STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE LATEST
OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR APRIL AND MAY.
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE TOMBIGBEE AND ALABAMA WATERSHEDS...
WHICH INCLUDE THEIR UPSTREAM TRIBUTARIES OF THE COOSA...BLACK
WARRIOR...CAHABA AND TALLAPOOSA RIVERS...SUGGEST THE FREQUENCY OF
RIVER FLOODING TYPICALLY PEAKS FROM EARLY MARCH TO THE FIRST
WEEK IN APRIL ON AVERAGE.
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS...
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND EXPECTED NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THIS SPRING...THERE WILL BE AN ABOVE NORMAL
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FLOOD POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE SPRING
THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER (SERFC) ISSUES A VARIETY OF
PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER
RESOURCES. THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS UPDATED EVERY
TWO WEEKS. THE SERFC JOURNAL IS ISSUED A COUPLE OF TIMES A
WEEK. YOU CAN SIGN UP FOR NOTIFICATION OF THIS PRODUCT
ISSUANCE ON THE SERFC INTERNET PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC
YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS
ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX
FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT
ROGER MCNEIL...SERVICE HYDROLOGIST...AT 205-664-3010 OR BY
E-MAIL AT ROGER.MCNEIL@NOAA.GOV .
&&
FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND
FORECASTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...GO TO:
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BMX
(ALL LOWERCASE)
FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFVSMAP.SHTML
(ALL LOWERCASE)
FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFPAGE.HTML
(ALL LOWERCASE)
$$
