000
FXUS64 KBMX 310828
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
328 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010
.DISCUSSION...
REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES ONCE AGAIN TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LIKELY TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE LOWER 80S. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY IN LARGE PART DUE TO THE
NEARLY CLOUD FREE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST AND A GENTLE GULF RETURN FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED.
UNFORTUNATELY...JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND THE PLEASANT WEATHER
WILL COME TO AN END AS A RATHER VIGOROUS PACIFIC SYSTEM TAKES AIM
ON THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL ITS EFFECTS AROUND
SATURDAY...OR PROBABLY CLOSER TO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS
CONTINUING ITS TREND OF ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO FASTER. ITS ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS...HOWEVER...ARE CLOSER TO THE EURO AND GEM TIMING OF
SATURDAY OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT GETS A
BIT ELONGATED AND SLOWS DOWN JUST A BIT.
AS WE GET CLOSER...I CONTINUE TO TRY AND DIAGNOSE ANY POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT PARAMETERS ARE NOT SEEMING TO
COME TOGETHER QUITE RIGHT. MOST TO ALL OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
AND JET DYNAMICS ARE STAYING WELL NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND DIRECTLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH REALLY LEAVES THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE MORE SUMMER REGIME OF RELYING SOLELY ON THE
HEATING OF THE DAY THERMO PROFILES. DEWPOINTS ARE ADMITTEDLY
BETTER WITH EVERY RUN...GIVING US SOME 60S TO WORK WITH RIGHT AS
THE BEST FORCING APPROACHES. SO..WITH THAT IN MIND...IF FROPA IS
DURING THE BEST HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE SOME
POTENTIAL THERE...BUT SEEING AS MY BEST FORECAST IS FOR THE BEST
LIFT TO ROLL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE HWO. WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT THOUGH TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES OCCUR.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AS THE
FOLLOWING HIGH SLIDES TO OUR EAST QUICKLY...BRINGING WARM WEATHER
RIGHT BACK TO THE AREA OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP BY MID NEXT
WEEK...SO THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN WILL STAY IN PLACE.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
10/ARM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 77 41 82 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 78 45 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 80 48 83 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 80 45 82 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
CALERA 77 47 82 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 78 48 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 80 46 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TROY 78 42 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17/10
