Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KGRB 261913
ESFGRB
WIC009-015-029-037-041-061-067-069-071-073-075-078-083-085-087-097-
115-125-135-137-139-141-271830-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN, WI
113 PM CST WED NOV 26 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
FOR SEPT.-NOV. FOR ALL RIVER BASINS IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...
THE GREEN BAY OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS IMPLEMENTED
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST
POINTS IN THE SERVICE AREA. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED ONCE A MONTH AND ARE IN ADDITION TO THE
7 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS
ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID FROM DEC. 1 2008 TO MAR. 1
2009. IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS
INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE
LISTED STAGE IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE WISCONSIN RIVER
AT MERRILL HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 11 FEET. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE TO 4.8 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
FLOOD
STAGE
SITE (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WISCONSIN R.
MERRILL 11 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.8
ROTHSCHILD 25 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 14.3
WIS RAPIDS 12 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.7
YELLOW R.
BABCOCK 12 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.8 3.3 4.1 5.6
MENOMINEE R.
FLORENCE 9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9
NIAGARA 13 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.2
MCALLISTER 15 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.3
WOLF R.
LANGLADE 11.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.4
SHIOCTON 11 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.4 4.2 5.5
NEW LONDON 9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.5
LITTLE WOLF R.
ROYALTON 5 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.6
WAUPACA R.
WAUPACA 6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.4
====================================================================
THE TABLE BELOW INDICATED THE CHANCES OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED
STAGES DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. FOR EXAMPLE...THERE IS A 90
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE WISCONSIN RIVER AT MERRILL WILL FALL TO
3.5 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. THE NUMBERS REPRESENT NORMAL SEASONAL
TRENDS FOR LOW WATER LEVELS.
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
FLOOD
STAGE
SITE (FT) 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WISCONSIN R.
MERRILL 11 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5
ROTHSCHILD 25 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4
WIS RAPIDS 12 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4
YELLOW R.
BABCOCK 12 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
MENOMONEE R.
FLORENCE 9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
NIAGARA 9 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6
MCALLISTER 15 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3
WOLF R.
LANGLADE 11.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
SHIOCTON 11 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
NEW LONDON 9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
LITTLE WOLF R.
ROYALTON 5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
WAUPACA R.
WAUPACA 6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING
MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...
AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES
...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS
CAN BE MADE.
ADDITIONAL AHPS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRB LOOK FOR AHPS.
$$
HAHN
