000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291932
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPR LVL LOW CURRENTLY OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
W/NW FLOW TO THE RGN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOK FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL THIRD...WHILE
GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE RGN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA A FEW HRS AFTER SUNSET.
CLOUDS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCOUR OUT OVER THE FAR N...BUT
GENERALLY HAVE WENT MO CLR/CLR SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WED LOOK FOR S SKIES TO START THE DAY OFF WITH CU FIELD DVLPG
OVER THE NORTH. VIGOROUS SHRTWV ASSCD WITH UPR LVL LOW OVER NY WILL
PUSH OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA FROM THE GRT LKS RGN TWRDS THE
AFTN HRS. NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CHCS FOR POPS...BUT HAVE FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO SOLN WITH SUPPORT FROM ECMWF. THEREFORE LOOK FOR A CHC OF
SHRAS (MAINLY BWTWN 3-9PM) OVER THE NRN THIRD (ESP NRN NECK INTO THE
ERN SHORE). HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE RGN WED NIGHT AND BELOW
NRML HIGH/LOWS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGN THRU ERLY FRI.
SRLY FLOW DVLPS AS HIGH PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE RGN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FRNTL BNDRY WILL SWING INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO
SUN MORNG. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 40 PERCENT FOR SHRAS
ACRS THE AREA...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THRU. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED FOR
SUN AFTN THRU TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR THE REGION MON...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE CST TUE.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 70S TO LWR 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S SAT MORNG...AND GENERALLY
RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO THE LWR 60S SUN...MON AND TUE MORNGS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. WNDS CONT TO BE GUSTY BUT NOT AS MUCH AS MONDAY.
WNDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO 5-10 KT. COLD AIR AND SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND STRONG LOW OVER CANADA WILL BRING SOME SCT-BKN
LOW/MID CLOUDS (5000 FT AND ABV) THRU THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...BUT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON WED AND THU. NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE FRI AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE ADJUSTED SCA HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE AND WILL HAVE
SCA FOR THE CHES BAY THRU LATE TNGT/ERLY WED MORNG...AND FOR THE NRN
THREE CSTL WTR ZNS THRU WED MORNG. BELIEVE SEAS WILL COME UP TO 5 FT
ON THE CST LATER THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AS WNDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THINK
WNDS CUD STAY UP IN THE BAY INTO ERLY WED MORNG...DUE TO NW SURGE.
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA WED NGT AND THU...THEN SLIDE OUT
TO SEA FRI. FRNTL BNDRY PUSHES ACRS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN
MORNG.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...TMG
