000
FXUS64 KSHV 271953
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
253 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011
.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH STALLED ALONG
THE GULF COAST...WAS MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS UP AND WILL BRING
THE RETURN OF TROPICAL AIR TO ALL OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...AS LIFT OVER THE BOUNDARY COULD GENERATE SOME CONVECTION
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.THIS WILL BE THE
ONLY MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
BY SATURDAY...A RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE REGION...AND BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN VIRTUALLY NO RAIN
AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY INTO EARLY JUNE. IF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...
THIS PATTERN COULD EXTEND BEYOND THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AND GAIN
STRENGTH...BRINGING A EARLY SUMMER TO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THERE IS THE HINT OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKING INTO THE
REGION LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVERHEAD...
WILL NOT FOLLOW MOS RAIN CHANCES...AND LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE FOR TSTMS TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SE OK/SW AR/NE TX
THIS EVENING...KTXK WOULD LIKELY BE THE ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS
BACK INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND MORE GUSTY SLY WINDS SHOULD
RETURN BY 15Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z
TAF CYCLE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GREATEST TO
THE WEST WHERE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 89 68 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 10 10
MLU 90 66 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 10 10
DEQ 86 64 87 64 87 / 20 20 10 10 10
TXK 86 67 90 66 88 / 0 10 10 10 10
ELD 86 64 90 66 90 / 0 10 10 10 10
TYR 91 70 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 10
GGG 90 69 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 10 10
LFK 93 71 95 71 91 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/09
