Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KDMX 021718
ESFDMX
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1117 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS...
THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR
RIVER BASINS IN IOWA. THIS OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO TWO PARTS...
ONE FOR HIGH WATER...AND ONE FOR LOW WATER.
A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE FORECASTS
IS GIVEN AT THE END OF THIS OUTLOOK.
IN THE FIRST TABLE BELOW FOR HIGH WATER...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT
COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE DES MOINES RIVER
AT FORT DODGE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE
IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE REACHING 5.7 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 12/01 2008 - 03/01 2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
E FK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA 14 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 9.2
DAKOTA CITY 20 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.7 8.9
BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CIT 12 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.2
BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES 12 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.8 6.4 7.2 7.6 8.3 9.2
N RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON 19 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.2 8.5 9.3 10.0 11.5
PERRY 15 6.0 7.0 7.9 9.1 9.8 10.4 11.3 12.5 13.9
S RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD 20 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.5 7.0
RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER 16 4.5 5.3 6.1 7.1 7.6 7.8 8.6 9.8 11.8
DSM - FLEUR 12 2.4 3.5 4.6 6.3 7.1 7.4 8.5 9.5 10.8
NORTH RIVER
NORWALK 18 7.4 9.4 10.6 11.5 12.9 14.2 15.0 18.4 21.2
MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA 19 8.3 9.8 10.2 11.0 11.9 12.8 13.9 15.8 17.0
SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH 26 9.1 9.7 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.1 14.3
CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY 18 7.4 8.3 9.0 9.4 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.7 13.7
DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE 7 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.1
EMMETSBURG 10 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.0
HUMBOLDT 8 3.1 3.5 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
FORT DODGE 10 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.7
STRATFORD 14 6.0 6.4 6.8 7.5 8.1 8.8 9.4 9.9 10.8
DSM-2ND AVE 23 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.5 15.7 16.2
DSM-SE 6TH 24 12.3 13.1 14.4 15.1 16.2 16.7 17.8 18.3 20.2
TRACY 14 4.2 5.1 6.6 6.9 7.3 8.0 8.8 10.2 12.0
OTTUMWA 10 3.6 4.5 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.7 7.5 8.8 9.6
CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE 11 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.6 3.2
W FK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD 12 7.4 8.1 8.7 9.1 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.7
WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY 7 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.1 5.5 6.2
SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK 12 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.3
BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFRD 10 3.1 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.4 6.1 6.6
CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS 88 78.1 78.3 78.8 79.4 80.3 81.1 81.8 82.3 83.4
WATERLOO 12 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.5 7.8 8.3
IOWA RIVER
MARSHALLTWN 15 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.4 14.9
SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES 3N 14 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.5
SQUAW CREEK
AMES 9 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.6
SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES 5SE 20 10.7 11.7 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.5 16.0 16.9
COLFAX 17 8.0 8.4 9.5 9.8 10.4 11.1 11.9 12.5 13.1
OSKALOOSA 17 9.6 10.8 11.7 13.0 14.0 15.1 15.7 16.5 18.1
EAST NISHNABOTNA R
ATLANTIC 17 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.7 7.9
E 102 RIVER
BEDFORD 21 12.6 13.2 13.6 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.9 18.0
THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY 9 2.5 3.4 3.8 4.5 4.9 5.6 6.0 7.2 9.4
CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON 15 10.3 12.5 13.2 13.7 13.9 14.7 15.4 15.6 16.2
MOULTON 35 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.5 27.1 27.7 28.5 29.2 30.2
S FK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY 18 6.8 7.7 9.3 10.3 11.5 13.3 15.0 16.7 18.2
IN THIS NEXT TABLE...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE
THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE CEDAR RIVER AT CEDAR FALLS HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 88 FEET.
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE FALLING
TO 76.3 FEET.
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 12/1/2008 - 3/1/2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
E FK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA 14 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8
DAKOTA CITY 20 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4
BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CIT 12 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES 12 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
N RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON 19 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7
PERRY 15 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6
S RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD 20 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER 16 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
DSM - FLEUR 12 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
NORTH RIVER
NORWALK 18 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7
MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA 19 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8
SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH 26 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9
CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY 18 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3
DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE 7 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
EMMETSBURG 10 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
HUMBOLDT 8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6
FORT DODGE 10 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0
STRATFORD 14 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6
DSM-2ND AVE 23 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7
DSM-SE 6TH 24 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.1
TRACY 14 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3
OTTUMWA 10 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE 11 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8
W FK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD 12 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6
WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY 7 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1
SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK 12 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6
BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFRD 10 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3
CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS 88 77.1 77.0 76.8 76.8 76.7 76.6 76.6 76.5 76.3
WATERLOO 12 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3
IOWA RIVER
MARSHALLTWN 15 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.9
SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES 3N 14 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3
SQUAW CREEK
AMES 9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES 5SE 20 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4
COLFAX 17 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9
OSKALOOSA 17 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE
DES MOINES NWS INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
(LOWER CASE).
$$
END/JAZ
