Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KDLH 251146
ESFDLH
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-051-099
-113-129-032300-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2008
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID 12/1/2008 - 3/1/2009
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SNAKE RIVER NEAR PINE CITY HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 9 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 3.2 FEET.
FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
ST. LOUIS RIVER AT SCANLON
10.5 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.2
PRAIRIE RIVER NEAR TACONITE
10 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0
SNAKE RIVER AT PINE CITY
9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 4.2
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AITKIN
12 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.9 7.2
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT FORT RIPLEY
10 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.9
THERE WAS NO CHANGE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NOR TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THE PAST 30 DAYS.
RIVER FLOWS OF BELOW OR MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WERE FOUND IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THE CHIPPEWA RIVER AT WINTER AND THE BAD
RIVER NEAR ODANAH. IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...ONLY THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR CHISHOLM INDICATED A BELOW NORMAL FLOW. ICE IS FORMING ON ALL
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES RANGED FROM 50 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 50 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS.
THE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE SHORT TERM INDICATES BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LONG TERM
OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NORMAL...AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR
DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SNOW DEPTH...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A FULL RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DLH FOR
MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.
$$
