Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KEAX 251949
ESFEAX
MOC003-005-021-047-087-147-165-210707-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
130 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2008
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS
THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID NOV 30 2008 TO FEB 28 2009.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE 102 RIVER AT MARYVILLE
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 18 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE
RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 13.8 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
102 RIVER
MARYVILLE 18 9.3 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.8 12.5 13.3 13.8 17.0
ROSENDALE 18 8.3 9.4 9.8 10.4 11.4 12.6 13.2 14.3 17.1
LITTLE PLATTE RIVER
SMITHVILLE 27 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.4 20.5
PLATTE RIVER
AGENCY 20 12.5 13.3 14.8 15.4 17.0 19.4 21.8 23.1 25.6
SHARPS STATION 26 14.3 16.5 18.3 19.0 23.1 24.0 26.7 28.7 31.2
PLATTE CITY 20 10.0 11.9 13.5 14.1 17.9 18.5 21.1 23.7 27.0
NODAWAY RIVER
BURLINGTON JCT 23 6.3 7.4 7.7 8.9 9.3 9.5 10.2 11.6 14.3
TARKIO RIVER
FAIRFAX 17 7.4 7.9 8.4 9.0 9.6 10.9 11.2 12.6 15.4
THOMPSON RIVER
TRENTON 30 12.7 14.8 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.5 22.0 22.9 25.3
GRAND RIVER
PATTONSBURG 25 1.6 2.5 7.0 4.7 8.3 12.2 17.4 22.7 24.9
GALLATIN 26 5.5 7.5 9.7 11.5 12.3 14.9 18.5 24.2 26.4
CHILLICOTHE 24 8.3 10.0 14.2 16.6 19.1 21.3 26.2 29.4 31.8
SUMNER 26 15.1 17.7 22.0 24.9 28.9 30.4 32.9 35.1 36.6
CHARITON RIVER
NOVINGER 20 4.6 6.4 7.7 9.0 9.5 10.9 13.4 15.8 17.8
PRAIRIE HILL 15 6.1 8.5 10.1 12.0 13.4 15.7 16.7 17.8 19.3
BLUE RIVER
BLUE RIDGE BLVD 35 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 27.2 27.6 28.2 30.5
BANNISTER ROAD 34 5.9 6.6 6.9 7.6 8.9 9.6 10.4 13.8 16.4
LITTLE BLUE RIVER
LAKE CITY 18 5.8 6.1 6.5 7.1 8.2 9.2 10.2 11.3 14.1
CROOKED RIVER
RICHMOND 20 8.4 9.9 10.7 12.3 13.4 15.0 16.3 20.4 23.1
WAKENDA CREEK
CARROLLTON 20 11.7 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.7 16.9 19.0 21.6 23.9
BLACKWATER RIVER
VALLEY CITY 22 10.1 11.9 12.2 13.1 17.8 22.0 27.6 28.0 31.7
BLUE LICK 24 18.9 20.1 21.8 22.5 24.9 26.5 27.1 28.5 32.5
LAMINE RIVER
OTTERVILLE 15 3.9 5.8 8.0 10.6 12.0 13.6 15.2 17.1 19.1
MONITEAU CREEK
FAYETTE 16 7.4 11.6 14.7 16.3 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.3 20.2
PETITE SALINE CREEK
BOONVILLE 16 5.8 6.8 9.1 10.7 13.0 14.2 16.5 17.5 18.8
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX/AHPS FOR MORE WEATHER AND
RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
$$
GA
