Weather for Mesa, Arizona
Lat: 33.42N, Lon: 111.74W
Wx Zone: AZZ023
Arizona Drought MonitorThe Arizona Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Arizona land area in each drought level compared to the previous week. Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean. |
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Arizona Hydrologic Information StatementNote that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS75 KPSR 102112
ESFPSR
FGUS75 KPSR 1012050
ESFPSR
AZZALL-100000-
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
211 PM MST THU MAR 10 2011
...ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY SUMMARY AND HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN ARIZONA DUE TO SPRING SNOWMELT IS BELOW
NORMAL. SNOWMELT ALONE RARELY RESULTS IN FLOODING WITHIN THE STATE.
BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK...BELOW MEDIAN STREAMFLOW...BELOW AVERAGE
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION...AND A CLIMATE FORECAST CALLING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
ALL POINT TOWARD A BELOW NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF SPRING FLOODING.
SNOWPACK CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 1ST WERE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT ARIZONA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF SITES IN THE
VERDE BASIN. SNOW COVER IN THIS AREA HOWEVER WAS LIMITED IN AREAL
COVERAGE.
FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE VERDE RIVER
AND WESTERN ARIZONA...BUT WAS BELOW AVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
BELOW MEDIAN STREAMFLOW RATES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE STATE AT THE END
OF FEBRUARY.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAIRLY DRY ACROSS AREAS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GILA AND UPPER SALT RIVER
BASINS. WETTEST SOILS ARE LOCATED IN THE UPPER VERDE AND WESTERN
HALF OF THE LITTLE COLORADO DRAINAGE AREA.
CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE LA NINA OR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH SPRING ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL
MEAN INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR ARIZONA.
...HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION TO DATE...
BELOW NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CURRENT RESERVOIR STORAGE...
BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL
MONTHLY RUNOFF FORECAST...
MUCH BELOW MEDIAN
THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY...
2011 WATER YEAR (OCTOBER 2010 THRU FEBRUARY 2011)
BASIN / REGION SEASONAL PRECIP
PERCENT OF AVERAGE
UPPER GILA 30 TO 50
SALT 80
VERDE 90 TO 130
LITTLE COLORADO 60 TO 125
PRECIPITATION FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE...
OCT 1 2010 THRU FEB 28 2011...
STATION CURRENT AVERAGE
BULLHEAD CITY 3.75 3.24
COOLIDGE 3.33 4.63
COTTONWOOD 7.14 5.54
DOUGLAS 0.25 4.49
FLAGSTAFF 11.43 10.36
MCNARY 6.81 12.61
NOGALES 1.70 6.49
PAGE 3.18 3.12
PAYSON 8.13 10.01
PHOENIX 2.44 4.04
ROOSEVELT 6.40 8.97
TUCSON 1.17 4.78
WILCOX 1.22 5.45
WINSLOW 0.89 2.98
SNOW PACK SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
AS REPORTED MARCH 1 2011 BY NRCS
BASIN / REGION PERCENT OF
NORMAL
SALT RIVER 58
VERDE RIVER 94
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER 66
SAN FRANCISCO - UPPER GILA RIVER 48
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS 88
CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM 73
GRAND CANYON 87
SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS 100
STATEWIDE 82
SOIL CONDITIONS...
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ANALYSIS FOR ARIZONA SHOWS SOIL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT THE END OF FEBRUARY WERE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE. GREATEST ANOMALIES WERE LOCATED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...WHERE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
RESERVOIRS...
AS OF MARCH 10 2011 UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED
RESERVOIR/SYSTEM PERCENT VOLUME IN
FULL ACRE-FT
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
LYMAN LAKE 59 17800
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE POWELL 54 13088907 MAR 9
LAKE MEAD 43 11140000 MAR 9
LAKE MOHAVE 93 1682900 MAR 9
LAKE HAVASU 92 569600 MAR 9
BILL WILLIAMS RIVER
ALAMO LAKE 14 137196
SALT RIVER
SALT SYSTEM 93 1879544
VERDE RIVER
VERDE SYSTEM 58 165597
AGUA FRIA RIVER
LAKE PLEASANT 90 771708
GILA RIVER
SAN CARLOS 8 110700
PAINTED ROCK
CURRENT RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS...
AS OF MARCH 1 2011
STREAMFLOWS ALL ACROSS THE STATE ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW LONG-TERM
MEDIAN FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIVER BASIN PERCENT OF LONG-TERM MEDIAN
GILA 35
SALT 25
VERDE 75
LITTLE COLORADO 45
SPECIFIC SNOWMELT PEAK FLOW FORECASTS...
PERIOD MP %MED RMAX RMIN MED
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
SANTA CLARA RIVER
PINE VALLEY, NR APR-JUL 8.5 283 12.3 5.4 3
VIRGIN RIVER
VIRGIN APR-JUL 110 268 149 77 41
HURRICANE, NR APR-JUL 119 277 170 77 43
LITTLEFIELD APR-JUL 125 272 182 79 46
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
LYMAN LK, ABV, ST. JOHNS, NR MAR-JUN 1.50 24 4.1 0.34 6.3
WOODRUFF MAR-MAY 0.40 18 4.2 0.15 2.2
RIO NUTRIA RIVER
RAMAH, NR MAR-MAY 0.40 15 1.70 0.02 2.7
ZUNI RIVER
BLACK ROCK RES, ABV MAR-MAY 0.15 17 2.5 0.02 0.89
CEBOLLA CK
RAMAH RES MAR-MAY 0.25 17 2.3 0.00 1.49
EAST CLEAR CK
BLUE RIDGE RES, PINE, NR MAR-MAY 4.5 35 10.2 1.40 12.8
CLEAR CK
WINSLOW, NR MAR-MAY 7.0 23 15.0 3.2 31
CHEVELON CK
WINSLOW, NR, WILDCAT CYN, BLO MAR-MAY 4.0 31 9.0 1.40 13.1
WALNUT CK
LAKE MARY MAR-MAY 1.50 37 3.7 0.80 4.1
GILA RIVER
GILA, NR MAR-MAY 9.0 26 18.6 5.5 34
VIRDEN, NR, BLUE CK, BLO MAR-MAY 10.0 21 24 8.0 47
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER
GLENWOOD, NR MAR-MAY 5.0 30 13.6 4.0 16.4
CLIFTON MAR-MAY 12.0 29 35 9.0 42
GILA RIVER
SOLOMON, NR, HEAD OF SAFFORD V MAR-MAY 24 23 55 21 105
SAN CARLOS RES, COOLIDGE DAM, MAR-MAY 8.0 12 45 5.0 64
SALT RIVER
ROOSEVELT, NR MAR-MAY 60 22 120 35 270
TONTO CK
ROOSEVELT, NR, GUN CK, ABV MAR-MAY 10.0 38 39 2.3 26
VERDE RIVER
BLO TANGLE CK, ABV HORSEHOE DA MAR-MAY 60 42 130 35 144
MP MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP% MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 AVERAGE.
RMAX VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
MED MEDIAN VOLUME FOR THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.
%MED PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 MEDIAN VOLUME.
ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.
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FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION INCLUDING MORE DETAILED FORECAST
INFORMATION...BASIN CONDITION GRAPHICS...AND FORECAST EVOLUTION
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE CBRFC ONLINE WATER SUPPLY
PUBLICATION AT:
CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/WSUP/PUB2/MAP/HTML/CPUB.PHP
NWS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
LONG RANGE WEATHER FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION STATEWIDE
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MCLANE
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