Massachusetts Drought Monitor

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CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-181115-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2009

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE NINTH IN A SERIES OF WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS
THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA DURING
JANUARY THROUGH APRIL. THESE OUTLOOKS PERTAIN TO THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...ALL OF
MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND...
AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE
TO ICE JAMS IS OVER FOR THE SEASON.

...PRECIPITATION...

MARCH PRECIPITATION AVERAGED 2 TO 3 INCHES...WHICH WAS 1 TO 1.5
INCHES BELOW NORMAL. APRIL PRECIPITATION MONTH TO DATE RANGED FROM
1.5 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH WAS NEAR NORMAL.
THE EXCEPTION WAS IN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...
WHERE HIGHER 3 TO 4 INCH TOTALS PREVAILED. THIS WAS 1 TO 2 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL.

APRIL 1 TO 15 PRECIPITATION /INCHES/ FOR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWS...

LOCATION               TOTAL  NORMAL  DEPARTURE

WINDSOR LOCKS /BDL/... 1.81   1.91   -0.10
BOSTON /BOS/.......... 2.64   1.85    0.79
WORCESTER /ORH/....... 2.16   1.97    0.19
PROVIDENCE /PVD/...... 3.67   2.15    1.52

...SOIL CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE AS OF APRIL 14 WAS NEAR NORMAL.

...RIVER LEVELS AND WATER SUPPLY...

RIVER LEVELS WERE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

WATER SUPPLY WAS NORMAL. QUABBIN RESERVOIR WAS AT 100 PERCENT
CAPACITY...AND SCITUATE RESERVOIR WAS AT 104 PERCENT OF CAPACITY.
WACHUSETT RESERVOIR WAS AT 87 PERCENT.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID CONTENT...

NO SNOW PACK REMAINED IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN THE HEADWATERS OF
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER INTO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...THE MAJORITY
OF THE SNOW HAD MELTED...WITH THE REMAINING SNOW PACK LIMITED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

...RIVER ICE...

RIVER ICE WAS NO LONGER PRESENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...FORECAST...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH DURING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER HEADWATERS IN VERMONT
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE GENERALLY INTO
THE 40S AND 50S EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW
CONTINUED SNOWMELT...THOUGH MELT WILL SLOW OR STOP EACH NIGHT AS
LOWS APPROACH OR DROP BELOW FREEZING.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
FROM APRIL 25 TO MAY 1.

...SUMMARY...

THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS HAS ENDED FOR THE SEASON IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

OTHERWISE...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL. RIVERS ARE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL AND SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL...AND THE SNOW PACK IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS GONE. SOME SNOWPACK REMAINS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2000 FEET IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER IN VERMONT AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. GRADUAL MELT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD CAUSE HIGHER FLOWS TO RETURN TO THE
MAINSTEM CONNECTICUT RIVER FOR A PERIOD OF TIME NEXT WEEK...BUT AT
THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS IS THE LAST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO BE ISSUED THIS SEASON.
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS MOST VULNERABLE TO FLOODING DURING
THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE
FLOODING DURING ANY TIME OF YEAR. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TAUNTON ISSUES DAILY HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS THAT INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS...INCLUDING FLOODING...OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS PRODUCT CAN BE ACCESSED AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON...LOOK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE FOR
HAZARDOUS OUTLOOKS.

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