Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KGRR 242203
ESFGRR
MIC005-015-025-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-105-107-121-123-
133-231200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
503 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
FOR RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...
THE GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL
LOCATIONS IN THE GRAND...MUSKEGON...CHIPPEWA...PINE...KALAMAZOO...
AND ST JOSEPH RIVER BASINS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. THIS
SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER
FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD
OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID DECEMBER 1 2008 TO MARCH 1
2009.
...90 DAY HIGH FLOW FORECAST...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE
RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART 12.0 7.3 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.6
CROTON 9.0 5.8 6.4 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.5
LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY 6.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.2
WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL 6.0 2.0 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.4
PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE 5.5 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.4
CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT 8.0 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.6 6.2 7.0
PINE RIVER
ALMA 8.0 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.9 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.3
RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON 9.0 6.0 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.6
EAST LANSING 7.0 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4
LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE 7.0 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.7 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.9
MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS 9.0 6.6 7.1 7.6 8.4 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.3
THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS 7.0 4.2 4.6 5.4 6.3 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.3 8.1
CALEDONIA 10.0 5.0 5.4 6.2 7.3 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.2 10.0
ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD 8.0 4.7 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.9 7.3 7.7
FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA 8.5 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.6 7.1
GRAND RIVER
JACKSON 14.0 10.1 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.8
EATON RAPIDS 6.0 3.3 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.2
DIMONDALE 13.0 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.6 9.1
LANSING 11.0 5.1 5.4 6.5 7.4 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.8 10.1
GRAND LEDGE 11.0 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.3 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.6 8.9
PORTLAND 12.0 7.3 7.5 8.5 9.0 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.7
IONIA 21.0 12.0 13.0 15.0 17.0 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 20.1
LOWELL 15.0 7.2 7.8 9.0 10.4 11.2 11.8 12.2 13.0 14.1
ADA 20.0 9.6 10.9 12.6 14.9 15.9 17.0 17.3 17.9 19.0
GRAND RAPIDS 18.0 5.3 6.8 9.0 11.3 12.4 14.1 14.4 15.2 16.7
KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL 8.0 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.3 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.5
BATTLE CREEK 9.0 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.5
COMSTOCK 9.0 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.4 8.9
NEW RICHMOND 11.0 7.2 7.7 8.3 8.8 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4
BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK 4.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8
ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON 6.5 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.7
PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG 5.0 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.6
...90 DAY LOW FLOW FORECAST...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 10 THROUGH 90 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE
RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 7.3 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
LOCATION FS(FT) 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART 12.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3
CROTON 9.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7
LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY 6.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2
WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL 6.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE 5.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0
CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT 8.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
PINE RIVER
ALMA 8.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON 9.0 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8
EAST LANSING 7.0 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7
LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE 7.0 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0
MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS 9.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 4.0
THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5
CALEDONIA 10.0 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2
ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD 8.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5
FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA 8.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9
GRAND RIVER
JACKSON 14.0 8.7 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6
EATON RAPIDS 6.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0
DIMONDALE 13.0 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3
LANSING 11.0 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9
GRAND LEDGE 11.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5
PORTLAND 12.0 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5
IONIA 21.0 8.4 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.7 10.0
LOWELL 15.0 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.4
ADA 20.0 7.1 7.4 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.7
GRAND RAPIDS 18.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1
KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL 8.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.2
BATTLE CREEK 9.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7
COMSTOCK 9.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6
NEW RICHMOND 11.0 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3
BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK 4.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0
ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON 6.5 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7
PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG 5.0 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE... AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRR/(INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL LOWER
CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH...NEAR THE
END OF THE MONTH...THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
$$
